COVID-19 Poll

[John Ranalletta]

Another perspective

 

 

[EvilTwin]

3 hours ago, Rougarou said:

Don't look at the total number, look at the percentage.  If my Marine math is correct, 480,000 deaths is less than 1% of the U. S. population, 0.15,......good numbers to me, good odds to play with, bad for the 480k though.  

 

 

You might look at it as a percentage, I look at it as people who are going to die that probably wouldn't under other circumstances.   It may be worse in that these additional half million folks  will need space in the ICU which will crowd out the normal population of patients.  Would those numbers then be classified as  additional collateral damage?

[chrisolson]

1 hour ago, John Ranalletta said:

Another perspective

 

I'd call it a realistic, rational, informed and  honest  assessment of the current situation.

[Joe Frickin' Friday]

5 hours ago, Rougarou said:

Don't look at the total number, look at the percentage.  If my Marine math is correct, 480,000 deaths is less than 1% of the U. S. population, 0.15,......good numbers to me, good odds to play with, bad for the 480k though.  My glass is still of the nearly full type and not the oh crap its empty type.

 

if one out of 700 people die, there's a fair chance that someone in your family tree or circle of close friends will be one of them.  

[Rougarou]

9 hours ago, Joe Frickin' Friday said:

 

if one out of 700 people die, there's a fair chance that someone in your family tree or circle of close friends will be one of them.  

 

Yep, it's not like I haven't lost close people before. 

 

We've got a large portion of my local work group that are international travelers (some above the 60 age group),.......they're still traveling and I'm still not concerned.  I don't have an irrational fear of the things that I cannot control,.......such as death........and I don't play the empathy thing very well.

[scout6]

About the vaccine possibility.  Kind of glad that I am no longer on Active Duty with the military.  We used to get all sorts of vaccines and meds that had not going through the entire process of approval.  I believe that there will be large tests of possible vaccine solutions on the military as we move forward.  My experience included mandatory vaccinations prior to 4 deployments, not all of which had been approved by the FDA.

Fun.

[John Ranalletta]

Problem solved.  At ease...

 

NY AG Orders Televangelist Jim Bakker To Halt Advertising Of Alleged Coronavirus Cure 

 

[Danny caddyshack Noonan]

I predict there will be another run in 5 or 6 months.Toilet paper oil filter

I don't remember these costing more than $30 way back when I was selling auto parts.

[Red]

Pun intended?

"I predict there will be another run in 5 or 6 months."

[Red]

John, regarding nano silver products.  I can't vouch for the one shown.  I do use a product called St. George Nano Silver for treatment of cold sores.  Like clock work I start getting one on my lip every July.  I put a small compress with the silver solution on it 4/5 times a day, sometimes the sore never even erupts.  Just goes away.  I also use it on burns that I get when I forget to use my mitts while loading the wood stove.  Silver compounds have long been proven effective in infection control on burns.  I have tried the stuff on toe nail fungus with absolutely no effect.  It may work on other fungus like crotch itch or ring worm?

[John Ranalletta]

3 hours ago, Red said:

John, regarding nano silver products.  I can't vouch for the one shown.  I do use a product called St. George Nano Silver for treatment of cold sores.  Like clock work I start getting one on my lip every July.  I put a small compress with the silver solution on it 4/5 times a day, sometimes the sore never even erupts.  Just goes away.  I also use it on burns that I get when I forget to use my mitts while loading the wood stove.  Silver compounds have long been proven effective in infection control on burns.  I have tried the stuff on toe nail fungus with absolutely no effect.  It may work on other fungus like crotch itch or ring worm?

 

Red, I'll take your word for it.  Regarding last sentence, don't send pictures.

[BamaJohn]

My water bill has doubled and the skin on my hands is getting mighty thin.....and Publix supermarket has moved their Purel dispenser inside so they can keep an eye out for people trying to take the whole dispenser....Lordy!

[MachineJoe]

5 hours ago, Red said:

John, regarding nano silver products.  I can't vouch for the one shown.  I do use a product called St. George Nano Silver for treatment of cold sores.  Like clock work I start getting one on my lip every July.  I put a small compress with the silver solution on it 4/5 times a day, sometimes the sore never even erupts.  Just goes away.  I also use it on burns that I get when I forget to use my mitts while loading the wood stove.  Silver compounds have long been proven effective in infection control on burns.  I have tried the stuff on toe nail fungus with absolutely no effect.  It may work on other fungus like crotch itch or ring worm?

Red,  Try Vicks Vapo-Rub on your nail with a band-aid over it. after a year of trying over the counter cures with no results this stuff has finally proven very effective.

[PatM]

3 hours ago, MachineJoe said:

It may work on other fungus like crotch itch or ring worm?

 

3 hours ago, MachineJoe said:

Red,  Try Vicks Vapo-Rub on your nail with a band-aid over it. after a year of trying over the counter cures with no results this stuff has finally proven very effective.

 

It might work for toe nails but I sure wouldn't try it for crotch itch. 

[John Ranalletta]

Maybe not as “meh” as we thought.  
 

 

[Joe Frickin' Friday]

A long, fascinating, and troubling write-up about the current state of affairs with respect to this pandemic.  Lots of data, lots of plots, lots of clear explanations:

 

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

 

[chrisolson]

2 hours ago, Joe Frickin' Friday said:

A long, fascinating, and troubling write-up about the current state of affairs with respect to this pandemic.  Lots of data, lots of plots, lots of clear explanations:

 

 

The fact is , yes, the virus will most likely spread to most of the population ... like hundreds of other virus already existing. 

 

HOWEVER .... even though I'm in the not so good category of "elderly with other health issues" which so far ends up on the bad end of the chart ...   the overall message of the chart remains. 

 

 

The sky is not falling ... well...  not for most anyway.  Hopefully reason and logic will eventually prevail ... yes, you most probably will get COVID-19 but its certainly not an automatic death sentence ... the problems seems that many organizations are reacting as if it were (NBA cancels season).  Understanding that's it's a real conundrum ... yes there is a chance that in a packed stadium one or two individuals will contract the virus and may die , but most won't .... where do you draw the line when attendance is consensual ?  Or,  how do you assess the risk to players ?

 

 

 

[Bill_Walker]

22 minutes ago, chrisolson said:

Hopefully reason and logic will eventually prevail ... yes, you most probably will get COVID-19 but its certainly not an automatic death sentence ... the problems seems that many organizations are reacting as if it were (NBA cancels season).  Understanding that's it's a real conundrum ... yes there is a chance that in a packed stadium one or two individuals will contract the virus and may die , but most won't .... where do you draw the line when attendance is consensual ?  Or,  how do you assess the risk to players ?

 

The point is to slow the spread enough to keep our healthcare system from being overwhelmed.  If a lot of people need hospitalization at once, there won't be enough beds, ventilators, and maybe even doctors and nurses to care for them, and more people will die.  If you can spread them out over time, you might stay below the "no room at the inn" threshold.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/flattening-curve-coronavirus/

[chrisolson]

53 minutes ago, Bill_Walker said:

The point is to slow the spread enough to keep our healthcare system from being overwhelmed.

 

Agreed, but I'm not sure that some in power accept that analysis and instead think that isolation a one and done success story .... instead, buying time  was the point of one presenters on one of the videos that someone posted earlier  .... and hopefully time  well spent for "treatments" ( Remdesivir) to  be approved to help mitigate the potential mortality rate.

[Joe Frickin' Friday]

6 hours ago, chrisolson said:

... yes there is a chance that in a packed stadium one or two individuals will contract the virus and may die , but most won't .... where do you draw the line when attendance is consensual ?  

 

The problem is that the contagion doesn't stop with the handful of people in the stadium who get the infection directly.  They'll take it home to their families, neighbors, and coworkers.   A consensual decision to spend time in a packed basketball arena could sicken or kill a whole lot of other people who didn't even go to the game.  We've accepted that kind of risk for the common flu, but by all accounts COVID-19 is much worse, both in terms of communicability and severity.

 

The message being repeated by public health officials is that this thing will spread, but slowing down the rate of spread makes the difference between a fatality rate of 0.4% and 4%.  As the article I linked to points out, northern Italy is in the latter category: there are so many sick people that hospital workers are having to triage patients, making decisions about who will receive life-saving treatment and who will not.  "Sorry, the ECMO isn't available right now; we'll try to make you comfortable while you die."

 

If we handle things right in the US, maybe 50,000 people will die.  If we handle it wrong, maybe 500,000 will die.  What changes are we willing to make to our daily existence to save 450,000 lives?

 

Of those that don't die, a great many need hospitalization or are incapacitated at home, which means there's going to be economic damage.  The more people who are out of work at any one time, the more damage gets done.  You can keep a factory running with 5% of your workers out sick; when half are gone, it's a different story.

[John Ranalletta]

Heard this morning that Germans can use drive-thru facilities to get tested for COVID-19.  Can we make an exception and let the folks who made that possible come over?  STAT!

 

An example of potential virus spread:  Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz, tested positive; so, the NBA asked the teams the Jazz played in the last two weeks to self-quarantine.  But, what about the teams those five teams played in the interim?  Their staffs.  Those fans and coliseum workers, bus drivers, hotel maids, food staff.....  Without looking at the schedule, it's likely every NBA team has had a level 1 or 2 potential contact with a carrier.  

 

Ruth and I have discussed.  We don't dine out frequently, but we've stopped.  Ruth works out at a local community center and will stop going for a while.  We will attempt to avoid any large gatherings including church attendance.  START and the week in the Driftless area with Mike are still on the calendar, though I think we need to think about the wisdom of congregate meals and gathering indoors in large groups.  Aside from the dinners, my experience at FART/START is spending most of our time riding and standing around in the parking lot which don't seem to present a much elevated risk of exposure, but who in the hell knows? 

[John Ranalletta]

The fellow in the JRE video seems to discount the theory that older people are more likely to die.  It seems his point is that people over 40 are more likely to suffer a bad result if they are otherwise compromised.  He stated the high mortality rate among Chinese victims occurred because a majority (I think he cited 65%) of older Chinese men are smokers.  So, while being older isn't causative per se, when coupled with smoking, COPD, obesity, lack of conditioning, etc., the risks are significantly elevated.

[EvilTwin]

29 minutes ago, John Ranalletta said:

Heard this morning that Germans can use drive-thru facilities to get tested for COVID-19.  Can we make an exception and let the folks who made that possible come over?  STAT!

 

I had seen that on the nightly news as well.  I wonder about it.  I've worked drive through flu shot events and the whole purpose is to get as many people through in as quick a time as possible.

 

In this case, the health care workers would have to be all dressed out to hopefully prevent them from catching it.  But each car has to be assumed to be "Dirty", in other words infected with Virus particles.  So each time the worker interacts with someone, they potentially get part of their uniform dirty and to avoid passing that on to the next subject, would need to change out at least their gloves.  Changing out the gloves for each car would be the most hazardous part of the process for the worker to unintentionally pick up the virus.  If they didn't do that, then the hazard shifts to the people being tested.

 

The other issues with something like this revolve around identifying who really needs the test (people should be symptomatic since there are a limited number of tests available) and the ability to correctly ID who it was that they just got a sample from.  Was it Joe Smith, Jo Jo Smith, the other Joe Smith, you get the idea.  Mislabeling lab samples is an already huge issue and hospitals go to great lengths to make sure they the right persons.  And then you add in HIPAA issues with privacy and notification and it gets beyond messy.  

[John Ranalletta]

2 hours ago, EvilTwin said:

 

I had seen that on the nightly news as well.  I wonder about it.  I've worked drive through flu shot events and the whole purpose is to get as many people through in as quick a time as possible.

 

In this case, the health care workers would have to be all dressed out to hopefully prevent them from catching it.  But each car has to be assumed to be "Dirty", in other words infected with Virus particles.  So each time the worker interacts with someone, they potentially get part of their uniform dirty and to avoid passing that on to the next subject, would need to change out at least their gloves.  Changing out the gloves for each car would be the most hazardous part of the process for the worker to unintentionally pick up the virus.  If they didn't do that, then the hazard shifts to the people being tested.

 

The other issues with something like this revolve around identifying who really needs the test (people should be symptomatic since there are a limited number of tests available) and the ability to correctly ID who it was that they just got a sample from.  Was it Joe Smith, Jo Jo Smith, the other Joe Smith, you get the idea.  Mislabeling lab samples is an already huge issue and hospitals go to great lengths to make sure they the right persons.  And then you add in HIPAA issues with privacy and notification and it gets beyond messy.  

 

Don't have a clue, but could envision a system where the driver is given a clean swab and deposits it into a carrier w/o the the attendant having to touch the sample similar to a bank drive up vacuum tube system.  Do you think these are simple petri dish tests?

 

 

This is a problem:

 

In a study of more than 1,000 patients published in the journal Radiology, chest CT outperformed lab testing in the diagnosis of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The researchers concluded that CT should be used as the primary screening tool for COVID-19.

[lawnchairboy]

https://m.imgur.com/a/dyuVnVA
 

lots of medicaleeze, apologies.   
 

take care of yourselves and atay out of crowds.   

[chrisolson]

47 minutes ago, lawnchairboy said:

 

lots of medicaleeze, apologies.   
 

  one thing encouraging and almost "plain text"  .  Lets hope that its true and moreover that it can be mass manufactured and distributed appropriately.  

 

[tallman]

Hope everyone stays well.

Funny (sic), even here, some make decisions based solely on self, no apparent regard for others.

Won't  get me, I'm younger, healthy, going to spread the virus by choice.

Like cranking a loud pipe bike early morning.

Mature.

[Rougarou]

Take a deep breath,......it'll all go away,......eventually.

 

 

[Joe Frickin' Friday]

At a press event on Monday, NBA player Rudy Golbert showed his disdain for all of the hub-bub over the coronavirus by ostentatiously touching every microphone he could reach.

 

Yesterday he tested positive for the virus.

[John Ranalletta]

32 minutes ago, Joe Frickin' Friday said:

At a press event on Monday, NBA player Rudy Golbert showed his disdain for all of the hub-bub over the coronavirus by ostentatiously touching every microphone he could reach.

 

Yesterday he tested positive for the virus.

 

[Rougarou]

2 hours ago, tallman said:

Hope everyone stays well.

Funny (sic), even here, some make decisions based solely on self, no apparent regard for others.

Won't  get me, I'm younger, healthy, going to spread the virus by choice.

Like cranking a loud pipe bike early morning.

Mature.

 

 

Hey, I know somebody like that!!!

[Matts_12GS]

On 2/28/2020 at 12:11 PM, Jake said:

Anyone interested in 4 tickets to Milan for the end of April?  Nope?  Cuz that's what I have.  Yep.

 

When you sort out all of the facts, fears and folly, you know this too will pass.  For now, however, this is shaping up to be an opportunity to put my wife and friends on a plane, in hotels, and on a river boat and deal with a mask-wearing, Purell-squirting, cordoned-off extravaganza to the European ground zero, spending 3 days there.   Would you go for that one?  I'm thinking that's not what I saw in the brochure.

 

So, when you pull out the documents and read the fine print for a $16K trip, and learn by cancelling in time you only are going to get $6K back even with the expensive insurance ($1,100), you have quite a decision to make.  My conundrum is that I have until March 12th to make that decision, or my 50% turns to zero, and my only hope to recover funds at that point is if the carrier cancels the trip, which is a big roll of the dice.  Do you think they are cancelling an April/May trip in time for me to make that decision in March?  I'm thinking that's a no.

 

You insurance people are awesome at this. 

 

Per the trip forums, the seasoned travelers are negotiating to delay or elect to use the funds toward another trip by the same provider.  So far, this provider (a good one) has adopted a wait and see approach and are denying any rescheduling.  They are correct in that it is too early to make a call despite immense public pressure, but that is a public safety decision and not a financial one that helps with my fine print.

 

Three fun-filled days in Milan before heading up the Rhine to Amsterdam during the height of tulip season. A 50% off sale! 

 

Anyone? 

 

 

 

@Jake, I may need a roomie for START if you're interested...

[TEWKS]

58 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

 

3 hours ago, tallman said:

Hope everyone stays well.

Funny (sic), even here, some make decisions based solely on self, no apparent regard for others.

Won't  get me, I'm younger, healthy, going to spread the virus by choice.

Like cranking a loud pipe bike early morning.

Mature.

 

 

Hey, I know somebody like that!!!

 

Got some loud ass Harley neighbors do you?   

[Joe Frickin' Friday]

And now, a moment of comic relief:

 

The World Health Organization has announced that dogs cannot contract Covid-19. Dogs previously held in quarantine can now be released. To be clear, WHO let the dogs out.  

 

[Rougarou]

28 minutes ago, Joe Frickin' Friday said:

And now, a moment of comic relief:

 

The World Health Organization has announced that dogs cannot contract Covid-19. Dogs previously held in quarantine can now be released. To be clear, WHO let the dogs out.  

 

 

 

You know what goes good with Corona Virus?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lime Disease

[TEWKS]

This could be the beginning of the takeover? 

[Marty Hill]

Pat thanks for the laugh.  I've been locked in for over a week and really needed it.

[mickeym3]

Uh, thought we’d already gone to the dogs.  Thanks Pat, awesome indeed.  If humor inoculates then this group will go unscathed. 

[MikeRC]

 

Netflix stock still down?  Any suggestions for a company that builds home exercise equipment?  Online learning & videoconferencing companies?

 

What's everyone going to do with their time at home?    Like, talk maybe?  

 

Mike C

[ESokoloff]

25 minutes ago, MikeRC said:

What's everyone going to do with their time at home?    

 

I predicted a population increase.......

Corona Kids 

[Bill_Walker]

18 hours ago, ESokoloff said:

I predicted a population increase.......

Baby Boom II, the sequel.

[Joe Frickin' Friday]

[taylor1]

I wonder how much this poll has changed since the day it was started ?

I know my answer has

[Rougarou]

2 hours ago, taylor1 said:

I wonder how much this poll has changed since the day it was started ?

I know my answer has

 

For me and mine, our thought processes haven't changed, but the environment we deal with has.  She's a teacher and I deal a good bit with overseas travelers for my company.  NC has shut down schools and my company has offered "opt outs" for overseas travel and if you can work from home to do so (due to my function, I cannot work from home).

 

We were both in amazement at the little walmart that we go to, which is generally fairly empty (unusual I know), but last night, had a bit more traffic.  This is in a rural location, even saw a couple of people with masks on.  I commented to the wife whether or not to go cough around that person.......she chuckled and advised me not to.  Also, shelves upon shelves were empty,......you'd think a hurricane would be hitting soon.

 

A couple of our friends that we usually have dinner with on Friday evenings opted out.  Their reason was the husband was not feeling to well, my guess is that their a'scared of this panic but they won't admit it, both are in their early 60s.

 

So no, we're not re-thinking any plans or taking any precautions, just the world around us is.

 

 

[Bill_Walker]

Here's an excellent overview from doctors about how the virus spreads, what's at stake, and what to do about it (hint: if you don't take action, you are endangering others).  One snippet:

"Is it time to panic? No.

This document is trying to help you to understand the situation at hand and not to terrify you. We want to make sure you understand the facts and understand what is at stake. This is a Pearl Harbor moment for our country. We are facing a real threat, and we need to face it with all of our resources. When people decry the seriousness of this moment they are steering our country off a cliff, we need everyone to understand that this is important and if we work together to slow the spread, we will get through this as we are learning from Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and China.

 

The effectiveness of our health care system to deal with a sudden tsunami of respiratory illness is what is at risk. If our health care system buckles under the strain of tens of thousands of patients, then we could be looking at a catastrophe.

 

Personal risk vs. systemic risk

When we talk about risk, there are many different elements to consider. Naturally, we are concerned about ourselves and our loved ones. This is an example of personal risk. By and large, your personal risk is low. The overall fatality rate for COVID-19 appears to be around 0.6%-1%. The lower bound (0.6%) comes from the South Korea data. As we will discuss later, certain populations with certain diseases carry an increased risk of a serious life-threatening infection.

What we as physicians are most concerned about is systemic risk. Complex systems, such as our health care system, function because all the moving pieces fit together and interact with one another in such a way that the system functions under normal loads, lower than normal loads, and slightly higher than normal loads but may break down under the very high loads we anticipate with COVID-19. We have watched in horror at what is taking place in Italy where their health care system is failing. The health care system was overwhelmed by a flood of people requiring critical medical care, all arriving too close together in time. Italy does not have enough ICU beds, ventilators (mechanical breathing machines), and medications to manage all the patients that needed it. Physicians in Italy are judging who gets an ICU bed and critical care and who does not because there is not enough supply to take care of everyone. We do not want to see this happen here. This should be very clear:

This will happen here, and it will happen soon – possibly in one to two weeks – if we do not take very bold steps at this time."

https://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2020/03/a-covid-19-coronavirus-update-from-concerned-physicians.html?fbclid=IwAR16wkc82aIDTNaOymMMAhlWPl28-vJu5o_JTAwlLyrtsyNhYXw2QR2TjlM

[fourteenfour]

work hq is closed for two days while the clean as someone showed symptoms, this person was in contact with someone who has the virus. even more fun if they are confirmed we won't be on site for 14 days to let it run its course among employees but the kicker is we cannot be told who it was

[Rougarou]

Co-worker texted me earlier.  Him flying back from San Diego, over half the plane was empty.

 

 

[TEWKS]

Several “I think I have it calls” over the last week. Most had no register-able symptoms at all so more likely, only their minds had been infected with fear.

 

That being said, I heard through the grapevine that one of the local hospitals has a few positive cases on premises. One high ranking Dr. unofficially said it was going to get worse before it gets better.

 

I hope not but we may be in for some big unknowns in the next month or so.

 

[John Ranalletta]

32 minutes ago, TEWKS said:

Several “I think I have it calls” over the last week. Most had no register-able symptoms at all so more likely, only their minds had been infected with fear.

 

That being said, I heard through the grapevine that one of the local hospitals has a few positive cases on premises. One high ranking Dr. unofficially said it was going to get worse before it gets better.

 

I hope not but we may be in for some big unknowns in the next month or so.

 

be careful.  This is in Indiana today. 

 

10 White River Township firefighters self-quarantine after medical run

WRTFD Chief Jeremy Pells tells Eyewitness News that the 60-year-old male patient that the crew came into contact with showed some symptoms of coronavirus and has since passed away.

[Skywagon]

A couple of interesting things in Houston this weekend...I am sure some are common in the USA and maybe one a Texas thing.  The grocery stores are empty.  Today I went to a couple of liquor store to find out they were nearly out of beer.  Since I drink about a six pack a year, no big deal.  There is an outdoor shooting range not too far from here.  I try to stay current/qualified by shooting fairly regularly.  I went to the sporting goods store to buy some target ammo for 9mm and 45.  There was no ammo.  Pretty much all ammo of any sort was gone.  What the heck.  I guess people are thinking they may have to defend their food and beer.  Crazy!  I was able to buy gas today for $1.84.

 

What crazy things in your neck of the woods?