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COVID-19 Poll


John Ranalletta

Is COVID-19 causing you to rethink any plans or take any precautions?  

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I think the point is that quarantines and other disruptions strike without specific warning.  They are like earthquakes:  You know they can happen but you don't know when, where or how hard in advance.  When they strike, you have what have, you are where you are.  

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20 minutes ago, Twisties said:

but I still think we would eventually be exposed.

 

Unfortunately I believe that will be true ... despite the best efforts to contain this, it seems impossible to identify and quarantine everyone who can spread the infection.  

 

For me the issue is two fold ...

 

one, like many here I' m in the advanced age / other health issues category which is never a good category but doubly so for COVID -19.

 

Two,  even taking out the mortality danger, the thought of being really ill is something I'd like to avoid.

 

I'm not a doctor, but i can read and two things stand out.  A vaccine would be good to have, but it is 12 to 18 months away.  Vaccines are not very effective for the elderly (the group most as risk) so to try to force a vaccine as the primary solution seems unwise.

 

Consequently developing and distributing an effective treatment (already in trials) to reduce the mortality rate across all patient types  and particularly those most at risk is a much more attainable and desirable goal in the short run. 

 

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szurszewski
6 hours ago, Twisties said:

It's pretty much ridiculous that health care doesn't travel well.  

When we did our trip a few years ago we “upgraded” our insurance to a plan (an identical plan really) specifically with a national provider network. It was considerably more expensive (100% more? Maybe more than that - I’ve tried to block it out of my mind) and it was still a pain in the ass to use, though it did cover what a provider tried to bill us as a $4000 20 minute office visit, and covered 90% of the costs associated with Jeremiah’s broken arm. 
 

Health insurance was our single greatest budget item for the trip (just ahead of our final drive subscription ;) ).

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4 hours ago, chrisolson said:

A vaccine would be good to have, but it is 12 to 18 months away.

 

That is an optimistic guesstimate just to get one through the development, testing and approval process.  Then it has to go into mass production and distribution, which can take a long time as well.  So far we have never gotten one through to approval in anything close to 18 months.  But, the optimistic view banks on the idea that there have been advances in the science.  Never the less, evidently Big Pharma is sitting this one out so far, and leaving it to the start-ups.  I hear various opinions.  But frankly, in no circumstance will any vaccine be around for this initial outbreak.  

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12 minutes ago, Twisties said:

 

That is an optimistic guesstimate just to get one through the development, testing and approval process.  Then it has to go into mass production and distribution, which can take a long time as well.  So far we have never gotten one through to approval in anything close to 18 months.  But, the optimistic view banks on the idea that there have been advances in the science.  Never the less, evidently Big Pharma is sitting this one out so far, and leaving it to the start-ups.  I hear various opinions.  But frankly, in no circumstance will any vaccine be around for this initial outbreak.  

 

Yeah, I forgot to add .....   "AT BEST "  to the time line.  Agree it will be longer .... all the more reason to focus on  developing treatment first while others try to develop  a vaccine . 

 

Where's the money ???? 

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Well, the virus is being spread with no end in site.

 

What do you think that the odds are that the Un will be cancelled? Still 5 or so months to go..   6 dead in Wa State so far.   

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28 minutes ago, Lester V said:

...What do you think that the odds are that the Un will be cancelled? Still 5 or so months to go..   6 dead in Wa State so far.   

Whether it's cancelled, or not, one would have to think that many (most?) planning to attend would re-evaluate that decision closer to July, with time to cancel a room without penalty.

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2 hours ago, chrisolson said:

Where's the money ???? 

That line of inquiry leads to conspiracy theories.  

 

I will state flat out that I personally don't see any sinister actors in this at this point.

 

But, where's the money?  Ok, my completely uneducated take:

 

If this thing kills off a lot of older folk pension obligations go down.  A lot of stock is transferred to heirs who may be more likely to liquidate and buy something.  Population goes down... real estate is freed up so inventory up, price down.  Economic disruptions could also lead to job losses and real estate takes another hit.  Banks go with Real Estate - hurting.  Short-term:  defense and intelligence contractors benefit.  Pharma/Chlorox benefit.  Manufacturing is hit with supply and labor interruptions.   Tourism/restaurants etc take a hit.  

 

How much?  Who knows.  If borders are closed, disruptions sky-rocket.  

 

Just thinking out loud.

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23 minutes ago, Twisties said:

That line of inquiry leads to conspiracy theories.  

 

 

Actually you misinterpreted .... and interesting how these type of things get started .... what I meant was the government needs to fund a lot of research quickly and that takes money .... not assigning any blame or intention 

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John Ranalletta

Dr. Profeta is an ER physician here in Indy.  I had cited his comments about "What scares me?"  His answer:  FLU

 

His comments today:

 

image.png.df0e8b8bf9c3808f422610eee4cac1c1.png

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22 minutes ago, John Ranalletta said:

His comments today:

 

Well, that's a realistic assessment by someone who should know .... which I would hope our leadership comes to understand ... rather than the current message which is ... "don't worry, we've got this" ... that would be nice if true ... but not yet by a long shot.

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54 minutes ago, John Ranalletta said:

Dr. Profeta is an ER physician here in Indy.  I had cited his comments about "What scares me?"  His answer:  FLU

 

His comments today:

 

image.png.df0e8b8bf9c3808f422610eee4cac1c1.png

  I think it's hope for the best, plan for the worst.  I'm hoping it isn't that bad, but I won't be surprised if it is.  

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Meh, 1-2% mortality rate is a 98-99% survival rate, just reverse the "glass is half empty" to the "glass is almost full" :18:

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John Ranalletta
13 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Meh, 1-2% mortality rate is a 98-99% survival rate, just reverse the "glass is half empty" to the "glass is almost full" :18:

 

It's helpful to have a cavalier attitude about other peoples' mortality I guess.

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When it hits, and it will, there are a few things you can do to help you from getting it. 

No handshaking - use other methods like fist bumping

Use your knuckle to press elevator buttons or light switches.

Find alternative ways to open public doors than using your full hand.

Use disinfectant wipes

Wash your hands - a lot!

Keep a bottle of sanitizer available even in your car. 

Use the plastic gloves at the gas station to fill your vehicle

Cough or sneeze into a paper tissue - the virus can live in your shirt elbow for up to nine days.

Use latex gloves

Use zinc lozenges if you start to feel sick so get them now.

 

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29 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Meh, 1-2% mortality rate is a 98-99% survival rate, just reverse the "glass is half empty" to the "glass is almost full" :18:

 

That level of mortality is probably 20-30 times what is normal with the flu and this disease appears to be more virulent.  Most likely if this runs it's course most people will know someone who has died from it.  If it gets into a nursing home it could reek havoc on the residents who are mostly elderly and have other health issues.  In an elementary school with kids who aren't known for good hygiene it could spread like wildfire, take out a few of them,  travel home and work on grandma and grandpa.  

 

So Meh, is probably not the word I would associate with this, unless you are trying to make light of a very serious situation.  

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We have fried throughout the world and the only thing that would cause me to rethink plans would be the possibility of being able to return to the US. Our friends in the parts of Italy that are most affected tell us that life is pretty normal, and that—as we now know—even those infected generally have mild symptoms. 

 

My imoression is that this will soon fizzle as a front page story, and that we will see it relegated to a concern that will settle somewhere in the back of our brains, telling us to wash our hands, avoid risk if we’re in the group of those who are vulnerable, and see a doc I feel you feel the onset of symptoms. 

 

In other words, logic will overcome panic. 

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28 minutes ago, John Ranalletta said:

 

It's helpful to have a cavalier attitude about other peoples' mortality I guess.

 

2 minutes ago, EvilTwin said:

 

That level of mortality is probably 20-30 times what is normal with the flu and this disease appears to be more virulent.  Most likely if this runs it's course most people will know someone who has died from it.  If it gets into a nursing home it could reek havoc on the residents who are mostly elderly and have other health issues.  In an elementary school with kids who aren't known for good hygiene it could spread like wildfire, take out a few of them,  travel home and work on grandma and grandpa.  

 

So Meh, is probably not the word I would associate with this, unless you are trying to make light of a very serious situation.  

 

After having voluntarily gone toward gunfire, upping my own percentages of mortality rate, meh, a 98-99% survival rate is outstanding odds to be facing after infection.

 

Gotta love the "end is near" treatment that comes from these things,......ebola, bird flu, swine flu, mrsa, "name your new and spreading issue here",.......six months from now, this will be a forgotten headline and it will be on to the next "end is near mass hysteria" warning.

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I’ll just add one thought...and I’m not soliciting business: having a wife who’s been a travel advisor for many decades, I would NEVER travel abroad again without travel insurance and medical evacuation coverage. Perhaps the only exception would be to a place where the national health insurance would clearly cover my treatment. And even then, if I’m at death’s door, I’d rather be near family and friends. 

 

I’ve seen enough instances where her clients have been spared considerable expense, and who have been provided medical evacuations in dire circumstances to believe it’s a prudent investment. 

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Gotta laugh a little.  Covod-19 is getting all the focus and yet the normal flu season marches on and looks like the normal flu might of touched me.  I have been out and about a lot these last weeks and damn-it, its pretty clear I caught some bug. The last 24 hrs I felt a little off, dry throat, lungs while not congested feels a little heavy, a small cough, but no chills/fever. Crap!   I did get my flu shot two months ago and it appears my immune system has some decent Kung Fu against this invader and the symptoms are minor enough that I didn't even take a day off from some aerobic exercise (at home), and I felt better after working up a sweat. Nonetheless, I am staying out of circulation for a while (unlike the bastard that passed this little beasty on to me).  

 

While the symptoms Covid-19 and the typical flu bug are the same, I don't think I have a mild case of Covid-19 as there is only one confirmed case around and it was associated with an academic from the university 90 miles away that came back from an Asia trip just as Covid-19 was ramping up and as symptoms appeared, they immediately self quarantined, contacted the medical system and is/was being treated...I guess that person got the nasty version and needed intravenous fluids and such.  There are more cases in Illinois to the south, but so far I have not heard about any community spread anywhere near where I live.

 

One question is that while the experts say there is no specific vaccine for Covid 19, but I wonder if there is any partial/fractional immunity to Covid-19 from getting your flu shot. 

 

The one thing I truly miss about my working days is when I globally traveled and would be in Europe, Latin America, and Asia multiple times a year, I never got sick.  My immune system was bullet proof with all those incidental exposures, I did not catch a cold for about 5 years.  I wonder if those folks who travel like that are already immune to Covid 19.

 

Anyway, my biggest worry is how long that yummy bottle of wine will have to wait while my immune system vanquishes  those invading bastards in my body.  Fight on my fellow Phagocytes....I can almost hear the charge bugle call now!  charge.wav

 

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On 2/27/2020 at 11:37 AM, chrisolson said:

I believe there is a huge "messaging" problem with Covid-19. 

 

What's lacking is the "positive" side of the story .... and what's positive about this you ask .... ?

 

Well, the fact that the mortality rate is very low.  Certainly not as bad as MERS or Ebola and similar to the death rate from "normal" annual varieties of flu.

 

Death is  possible, but its definitely NOT a certainty for the majority of the population.  Which is where the messaging seems to break down giving the impression that this irreversibly bad.

 

  It appears for many people, its about like a bad case of flu.  And should be treated symptomatically the same way .... rest, fluids , anti inflammatory medication.

 

If you're in a high risk category (elderly, those with already compromised immune systems) , there is reason to take precautions if there is an indication wide area infections.  But for now ... business as usual.


WHO says the mortality is 3.4%.  This is higher than the mortality for the 1918 Spanish Flu.  It is VERY viral.  The Chinese, who I work with, emphasize that this virus spreads easily.  If 50% of the world gets this, and the estimates run from 40 - 70%, 120 million people will die. 

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Joe Frickin' Friday
On 2/27/2020 at 2:37 PM, chrisolson said:

I believe there is a huge "messaging" problem with Covid-19. 

 

What's lacking is the "positive" side of the story .... and what's positive about this you ask .... ?

 

Well, the fact that the mortality rate is very low.  Certainly not as bad as MERS or Ebola and similar to the death rate from "normal" annual varieties of flu.

 

Death is  possible, but its definitely NOT a certainty for the majority of the population.  Which is where the messaging seems to break down giving the impression that this irreversibly bad.

 

  It appears for many people, its about like a bad case of flu.  And should be treated symptomatically the same way .... rest, fluids , anti inflammatory medication.

 

The usual influenza death rate is about 0.1%, whereas the death rate for Covid-19 is more like 2-3%.  About 20% of cases are severe enough to require medical care, which is very concerning.  This pandemic is spreading so rapidly that there's a serious risk of overwhelming the existing medical care capacity.  If very sick people are no longer able to receive care, the death rate may rise dramatically.  

 

Even if it doesn't, it's so contagious that having a lot of people sick at once could throw a wrench into the economy (in fact it already is).   I think what they're trying to do now is not prevent the spread, but simply slow the spread to a rate that's manageable - one that doesn't overwhelm medical infrastructure and doesn't result in entire companies or cities shutting down for weeks or months.

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You not only have to look at the mortality rate, but you need to look at the R naught (R0) rate as well.   That is the rate of how many others are infected.  So once one person is infected, how many other people does that person infect?  That is how spreadable the virus is.

 

Covid19: 2.3

Spanish flu: 1.8

Measles: 12-18

Small Pox: 5-7

Polio: 5-7

 

So the R0 isn't all that bad for COVID19, relatively speaking.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

 

Here is a list of various mortality rates.  While 2 percent sucks, it's still better than H5N1 flu, which was 60%. MERS was 45%.  Regular smallpox is about 30%.  Spanish flu was 2.5%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates

 

 

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John Ranalletta

News from Iran this morning is they are "temporarily" releasing prison populations due to the spread of the virus.  Prisons, nursing homes, assisted living facilities, mental institutions, city/county jails, warships, barracks, etc. - environments where inhabitants are penned together might suffer the greatest losses.  Should we be prepared to empty prisons and jails?  Should these institutions immediate bar entry from outside visitors/contractors?

 

Hmmmm....

 

So, here's a scenario to ponder:  Let's say there's an outbreak of COVID-19 in Sing-Sing.  Likely, the only available resource is a military medical unit as local, civilian medical facilities would overwhelmed.  Let's also say, you're a med tech, nurse or MD in the unit assigned to deal with the outbreak.  Would you go?  If you were a civilian assigned to go, would you?  'cause once you're in, you're for the duration or have to go into quarantine for 2+ weeks on each exit.

 

That's the conundrum Dr. Profeta addressed in "What scares me" - that health care workers might not show up.

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2 hours ago, 92Merc said:

You not only have to look at the mortality rate, but you need to look at the R naught (R0) rate as well.   That is the rate of how many others are infected.  So once one person is infected, how many other people does that person infect?  That is how spreadable the virus is.

 

Covid19: 2.3

Spanish flu: 1.8

Measles: 12-18

Small Pox: 5-7

Polio: 5-7

 

So the R0 isn't all that bad for COVID19, relatively speaking.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

 

Here is a list of various mortality rates.  While 2 percent sucks, it's still better than H5N1 flu, which was 60%. MERS was 45%.  Regular smallpox is about 30%.  Spanish flu was 2.5%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates

 

 

 

Interesting.  A quick search from one site https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronavirus-may-spread-faster-than-who-estimate#Higher-estimates-than-WHO-predict  shows that the Chinese were calculating:

 

The studies they selected estimated basic R0 for the virus in China and overseas. These estimates ranged from 1.4 to 6.49 and had an average of 3.28 and a median of 2.79.

Both of these numbers are significantly higher than the numbers that the WHO suggested — which were 1.4–2.5.

 

The 2.3 number was calculated off the folks confined on the Pacific Princess  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32097725

The median with 95% CI of R0 of COVID-19 was about 2.28 (2.06-2.52) during the early stage experienced on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

 

1 hour ago, John Ranalletta said:

News from Iran this morning is they are "temporarily" releasing prison populations due to the spread of the virus.  Prisons, nursing homes, assisted living facilities, mental institutions, city/county jails, warships, barracks, etc. - environments where inhabitants are penned together might suffer the greatest losses.  Should we be prepared to empty prisons and jails?  Should these institutions immediate bar entry from outside visitors/contractors?

 

Hmmmm....

 

So, here's a scenario to ponder:  Let's say there's an outbreak of COVID-19 in Sing-Sing.  Likely, the only available resource is a military medical unit as local, civilian medical facilities would overwhelmed.  Let's also say, you're a med tech, nurse or MD in the unit assigned to deal with the outbreak.  Would you go?  If you were a civilian assigned to go, would you?  'cause once you're in, you're for the duration or have to go into quarantine for 2+ weeks on each exit.

 

That's the conundrum Dr. Profeta addressed in "What scares me" - that health care workers might not show up.

 

I'm a nurse that doesn't work directly in a clinical setting.   Would I show up?  I'd like to think so.  You don't get into this business for the money,  so you do it for what is important to you.  Going into a prison?  That takes a special person.  But your example shows what might be part of a real worst case example.

 

One tidbit I picked up the other week has to do about people who end up in the ICU from something like this.  Since it is primarily a respiratory disease, when it gets critical, these folks are usually put on Vents or ventilators  so they can continue to breath.  If the rate of cases gets even close to what some are predicting,  there won't be nearly enough machines available (by an order of 10 or more) to take care of these patients.  And these are not cheap machines to build and require specialized ICU training in order to be used.  And it's not likely that other critical patients (non covid related) won't already be hooked up and using them, so that might increase mortality across the board if push comes to shove .

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John Ranalletta
31 minutes ago, EvilTwin said:

 

Interesting.  A quick search from one site https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronavirus-may-spread-faster-than-who-estimate#Higher-estimates-than-WHO-predict  shows that the Chinese were calculating:

 

The studies they selected estimated basic R0 for the virus in China and overseas. These estimates ranged from 1.4 to 6.49 and had an average of 3.28 and a median of 2.79.

Both of these numbers are significantly higher than the numbers that the WHO suggested — which were 1.4–2.5.

 

The 2.3 number was calculated off the folks confined on the Pacific Princess  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32097725

The median with 95% CI of R0 of COVID-19 was about 2.28 (2.06-2.52) during the early stage experienced on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

 

 

I'm a nurse that doesn't work directly in a clinical setting.   Would I show up?  I'd like to think so.  You don't get into this business for the money,  so you do it for what is important to you.  Going into a prison?  That takes a special person.  But your example shows what might be part of a real worst case example.

 

One tidbit I picked up the other week has to do about people who end up in the ICU from something like this.  Since it is primarily a respiratory disease, when it gets critical, these folks are usually put on Vents or ventilators  so they can continue to breath.  If the rate of cases gets even close to what some are predicting,  there won't be nearly enough machines available (by an order of 10 or more) to take care of these patients.  And these are not cheap machines to build and require specialized ICU training in order to be used.  And it's not likely that other critical patients (non covid related) won't already be hooked up and using them, so that might increase mortality across the board if push comes to shove .

 

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I'm a nurse that doesn't work directly in a clinical setting.   Would I show up?  I'd like to think so. 

 

Thank you.  I'd offer the difference might be that most medical personnel aren't faced with diseases that can so easily be transported into one's home, family and community.  If I treated a COVID-19 confirmed patient today, how comfortable might I be hugging my kiddos or aging parents tonight?  Don't know.  Just wondering.

 

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If the rate of cases gets even close to what some are predicting,  there won't be nearly enough machines available (by an order of 10 or more) to take care of these patients.

 

Dr Profeta: "I left work today in a major metropolitan hospital and nearly every single ICU bed in our hospital was filled up. And we have ZERO active cases of corona virus. We will have no capacity to surge even 50 patients needing ventilators let alone 500 or a thousand."

 

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Going into a prison?  That takes a special person.

 

Both my son, who's a NP and my daughter-in-law, also a nurse, worked in the infirmary at Ossining on contract.  Strange place to work indeed.  Imagine pushing a cart down a row of cells taking BGM and injecting insulin through the bars.

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6 hours ago, John Ranalletta said:

If I treated a COVID-19 confirmed patient today, how comfortable might I be hugging my kiddos or aging parents tonight?  Don't know.  Just wondering.

 

 if we quarantine people for even being in a country like Italy ...  let alone close contact with a known infected person as in your scenario.... so what is the protocol today for medical personnel ??  .... seems a bit of a catch 22

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Along those lines, here's an example of how companies are responding to the covid-19 risk around here.

 

Today one of the high-tech companies here in the "silicon valley" closed down their office and sent everyone home until further notice (one campus only, other campuses unaffected), because a family member of one employee had been seen by a doctor who had seen another patient who was later confirmed to have the covid-19 virus.

The doctor, the family member of the employee, and the employee, are so far showing no symptoms and have not been confirmed to have the virus.

 

 

 

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Now that sanitizer, face masks and disposable gloves are in short supply, maybe we all have another use for our buffs/neck warmers & motorcycle gloves.  

 

I wonder how that will go over going through border entry.   

 

Mike C

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I think I will now dig a hole under the shed in the back yard and hide.  See you on the other side.

 

(a documentary from the Australian Broadcasting Corp)

 

 

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Danny caddyshack Noonan

Haven't decided to be worried yet.  Couple of things.  1. There is some data that shows widely ranging symptoms.  2. Death rate is the only reasonably certain number that anyone has.  3. Seem pretty infectious.  Combine all three and I'm wondering how overstated the percentage of dying is.  To get that number, one must have a grave count and a positive test count.  What if there are a buttload of people out there who have had it already and didn't get tested.  That drives the death rate down.  One could infer that the China death rate is more appropriate.  

The only thing certain is that time will tell and, I better go get in line for water bottles and toilet paper without really understanding why.  :) 

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58 minutes ago, Danny caddyshack Noonan said:

Haven't decided to be worried yet.  Couple of things.  1. There is some data that shows widely ranging symptoms.  2. Death rate is the only reasonably certain number that anyone has.  3. Seem pretty infectious.  Combine all three and I'm wondering how overstated the percentage of dying is.  To get that number, one must have a grave count and a positive test count.  What if there are a buttload of people out there who have had it already and didn't get tested.  That drives the death rate down.  One could infer that the China death rate is more appropriate.  

The only thing certain is that time will tell and, I better go get in line for water bottles and toilet paper without really understanding why.  :) 

 

 

fun with numbers :

 

(hypothetical)

 

100 people in a room

 

of which 99 are between 30 and 40 years old

 

1 is 70 years old

 

all become infected with COVID - 19

 

of the 100 people

 

1 dies (the 70 year old)

 

given the sample population example ... population based death rate = 1 %

 

given the sample population example ...  for people 30 to 40 years old  .... death rate = 0

 

given the sample population example ....  for those 70 years old .... death rate = 100 %

 

moral: if you're 70 or over the population mortality rate didn't matter

 

My take is yes, there are potentially many unidentified folks who've had the mild version of COVID-19 which would drive the population mortality rate down. 

 

However, it is a known fact that elderly folks (who also generally already have other illnesses) are definitely at risk so the population mortality rate is misleading.  So one's take on all of this  all depends on to which group you belong ... those not so much at risk or those who are.

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A good friend in the town next to me has a neighbor with it in hospital with breathing equipment. Bad respitory problem. About 73 he thinks. Husband has been told to stay in as I think he said he has it also. They were on the ship stuck off SF on it’s previous trip.

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2 hours ago, chrisolson said:

 

 

fun with numbers :

 

(hypothetical)

 

100 people in a room

 

of which 99 are between 30 and 40 years old

 

1 is 70 years old

 

all become infected with COVID - 19

 

of the 100 people

 

1 dies (the 70 year old)

 

given the sample population example ... population based death rate = 1 %

 

given the sample population example ...  for people 30 to 40 years old  .... death rate = 0

 

given the sample population example ....  for those 70 years old .... death rate = 100 %

 

moral: if you're 70 or over the population mortality rate didn't matter

 

My take is yes, there are potentially many unidentified folks who've had the mild version of COVID-19 which would drive the population mortality rate down. 

 

However, it is a known fact that elderly folks (who also generally already have other illnesses) are definitely at risk so the population mortality rate is misleading.  So one's take on all of this  all depends on to which group you belong ... those not so much at risk or those who are.

 

Fun with numbers.

 

So, this'll be a bit off topic, but in with the numbers game.

 

Several years ago, there was a herpes commercial that said "1 in 4 adults have herpes", kinda popular commercial as it was played quite a bit.  Meanwhile, I was part of the active duty staff at a reserve center, which consist of about 25 people.  One afternoon, just prior to afternoon formation for quitting time, we were all in the conference room and I start counting out loud.  One of the troops ask "Gunny, whatcha counting for?",.....I replied "six of you MF'ers have herpes",......hmmmm

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Joe Frickin' Friday

A presentation by the American Hospital Association got leaked to the press:

 

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The American Hospital Association, which represents thousands of hospitals and health systems, hosted a webinar in February with its member hospitals and health systems. Business Insider obtained a copy of the slides presented

 

The presentation, titled "What healthcare leaders need to know: Preparing for the COVID-19" happened February 26, with representatives from the National Ebola Training and Education Center. 

 

As part of the presentation to hospitals, Dr. James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center gave his "best guess" estimates of how much the virus might spread in the US.

 

The key slide is below.  Check out that number at the bottom of the second column:  :eek:

 

image.thumb.png.3590df74f10dddef17acf748a021091f.png

 

 

 

 

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18 hours ago, John Ranalletta said:

I'd bet you're not going, Jake.  Sorry about that.

 

 

No biggie, 1st world problems.  Incredulously to those of us not in the travel P&L actuarial work, the trip is still on as they are working hard to keep earn our money.  They are planning to reroute folks around Milan and carry on.  I can't imagine the logistics of that.  But, you've made a good bet as we will most likely accept their offer to re-book a later trip at a destination of our choice.   They keep half and return half, but no full refund due to their ingenuity by not cancelling.  Also, the insurance policy therefore does not have a triggering event for a claim, and epidemics don't count.  These guys are good. 

 

With the Regal Princess currently being held off of Ft. Lauderdale as some of the crew were on the Grand Princess, South Florida may soon have it's own problems to deal with.  

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Just reported on BBC.com

Bahrain F1 Grand Prix: Fans banned because of coronavirus    LINKY 

The race will take place but ...

 

From the organizers:  "Given the continued spread of Covid-19 globally, convening a major sporting event, which is open to the public and allows thousands of international travelers and local fans to interact in close proximity, would not be the right thing to do at the present time."

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Don't look at the total number, look at the percentage.  If my Marine math is correct, 480,000 deaths is less than 1% of the U. S. population, 0.15,......good numbers to me, good odds to play with, bad for the 480k though.  My glass is still of the nearly full type and not the oh crap its empty type.

 

Anyway, some of our frequent travelers have already been re-routed around some of the hardest hit countries.

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47 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Don't look at the total number, look at the percentage. 

 

I think based on available data,  if you are 60 and over and have some very common "underlying health conditions" the percentage is vastly different. 

 

Quote from article in Livescience.com " In Italy, where the death toll from the virus stood at 52 as of March 4, the fatalities were all in people over age 60. "  That's just one of many sources indicating similar results.

 

990637523_ScreenShot2020-03-08at2_12_11PM.thumb.png.9a803d2b803f7516f1bccf9de5abd056.png

 

 

I'm not saying The Sky Is Falling and that we should all panic .... you're right, most of the population will move on with little or no lasting effect .

 

However it seems prudent that the percentage of the population at greatest risk should acknowledge it and take whatever appropriate actions can be taken... and hope that clinical trials of remdesivir prove out.

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Joe Frickin' Friday
25 minutes ago, chrisolson said:

 

I think based on available data,  if you are 60 and over and have some very common "underlying health conditions" the percentage is vastly different. 

 

Quote from article in Livescience.com " In Italy, where the death toll from the virus stood at 52 as of March 4, the fatalities were all in people over age 60. "  That's just one of many sources indicating similar results.

.

.

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I'm not saying The Sky Is Falling and that we should all panic .... you're right, most of the population will move on with little or no lasting effect .

 

However it seems prudent that the percentage of the population at greatest risk should acknowledge it and take whatever appropriate actions can be taken... and hope that clinical trials of remdesivir prove out.

 

+1.  The 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic decimated the young (see Cytokine storm), but this one is primarily decimating the elderly.

 

I'm not too worried for myself - I'm still in the 40-49 bracket - but I'm somewhat concerned for my 85YO dad.  He lives in an assisted-living facility - exactly the kind of close-quarters place where this thing seems to spread like wildfire once it gains a foothold.  Hoping he reaches 86 this summer and gets to see his granddaughter's wedding...

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