As goes the USA, so goes Canada?

[SANTA]

come-on Ken just be a brave little piglet and make the jump... only time will tell if your jumping from the kettle into the frying pan or just straight into the fire...

 

Mike: nice summation

[MikeRC]

Ken:

 

The subprime mortgage and asset back commercial paper (ABCP) mess is an international problem because banks bought the instruments for their higher returns. They were advertised as "secure" investments and companies didn't do their homework investigating what assets were backing the paper. CIBC has the most exposure, TD Bank the lowest. European banks are also involved because some of their ABCP was also based on US mortgages. Credit Suisse just wrote down $1.2 billion.

 

Mike Cassidy

[Mister Tee]

Please note:

 

As Dave states below, please don't cross the line into partisan politics.

 

Thanks!

 

You're joking right?

 

Partisan politics? WTF? Would it surprise you to know I happen to be a registered REPUBLICAN? I'm not attacking a damn party, I'm attacking an individual! Someone asked a question about a problem, and I gave my opinion. It's as simple as that.

 

But of those are the rules then fine, I'll play by them. I'll keep any further posts to the tech and riding sections, that's why I'm on this board anyway. I'll leave this forum to the elite club.

 

-Tee

[Smoky]

Mike,

 

Thanks for the well written summary.

 

It could only be better if you included some of your fine photos.

 

Don

[Ken H.]

Ken:

 

The sub-prime mortgage and asset back commercial paper (ABCP) mess is an international problem because banks bought the instruments for their higher returns. They were advertised as "secure" investments and companies didn't do their homework investigating what assets were backing the paper.

Yes, I'm just curious if a lot of (newer) Canadian homeowners also took out sub-prime, no-doc, ARM, negative amortization, etc. type loans over the last 5 or so years like has happened in the USA? Bought homes that as it turns out they were never really qualified to buy.

 

In other words in the USA is is both a homeowners and a banking problem; is it in Canada just a bank exposure issue, with the underlying domestic mortgage market still sound?

 

Because it seems to me that's a key part of future trends. The institutions (anywhere) can probably successfully weather it out, some may not survive, but by-and-large they will recover. But if the populous is also buried under, that has much greater, longer implications IMO.

[MikeRC]

Ken:

 

No sub-prime mortgages in Canada. If you only have a 5 to 20% downpayment, you must pay an additional surcharge (Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation or CMHC Insurance) on your mortgage. And you still have to qualify for the mortgage via the standard route. Housing values have increased across the country 5 to 10% per year since about 2002, but are expected to be a bit more stable this year.

 

And all financial institutions (both in the US and elsewhere) will simply make up their losses by increasing their yield on good loans. So I expect a bigger difference (by 1/4% to 1/2%) between central bank rates and customer rates.

 

Maybe it was all a plot by the banks? Short term crisis -> increase loan yield -> maintain that yield so profits increase dramatically in a year or two.

 

 

Mike Cassidy

[RonStewart]

Crime statistics (at least from Statistics Canada) indicate a much higher rate of violent and personal crimes in the US, but higher rates of property crimes (break ins, auto theft) in Canada. As well, during this decade violent crimes are increasing in Canada but property crimes are decreasing. Who knows what social policies and societal trends affect this stuff? Or where they are going in the future? Certainly in Toronto, no one feels safe from gangs with all the murders there over the last few years. Including innocent bystanders.

Mike, note that the statistics only track reported crime. I think that property crime is proportional to violent crime, but the more violent crime in a community, the less property crime is reported. When violence is on the upswing, the police don't have time to spend on property crime, so why waste time reporting it?

 

In Vancouver we have had several gang-related killings recently, including one with six dead including two innocent bystanders. Gangsters are driving armoured cars. This trend seems to be coming from Asia and fueled by cross-border drug trafficking.

[russell_bynum]

No sub-prime mortgages in Canada. If you only have a 5 to 20% downpayment, you must pay an additional surcharge (Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation or CMHC Insurance) on your mortgage.

 

Here, they call that PMI, and I believe you have to pay it if you have less than 20% down.

[Bud]

We're closing bases right and left and readiness is at an all time low.

 

Um, you sure about that? I would argue that right now we have the most experienced and combat-ready military on the planet. What do you think our armed forces have been doing the last five years, playing tiddlywinks?

 

Even the military leaders agree that our armed forces are under tremendous pressures. Between loss of personal due to extended tours of duty, equipment worn out and not being replaced, the National Guard sharing an increasing part of the burden and other issues, our military is not combat ready. Combat experienced? Yes. Ready to take on another war? No.

[steve.foote]

We're closing bases right and left and readiness is at an all time low.

 

Um, you sure about that? I would argue that right now we have the most experienced and combat-ready military on the planet. What do you think our armed forces have been doing the last five years, playing tiddlywinks?

 

Even the military leaders agree that our armed forces are under tremendous pressures. Between loss of personal due to extended tours of duty, equipment worn out and not being replaced, the National Guard sharing an increasing part of the burden and other issues, our military is not combat ready. Combat experienced? Yes. Ready to take on another war? No.

 

I completely disagree. I'll leave it at that because of the potential for a highly contentious discussion.

[Mister Tee]

We're closing bases right and left and readiness is at an all time low.

 

Um, you sure about that? I would argue that right now we have the most experienced and combat-ready military on the planet. What do you think our armed forces have been doing the last five years, playing tiddlywinks?

 

Even the military leaders agree that our armed forces are under tremendous pressures. Between loss of personal due to extended tours of duty, equipment worn out and not being replaced, the National Guard sharing an increasing part of the burden and other issues, our military is not combat ready. Combat experienced? Yes. Ready to take on another war? No.

 

I completely disagree. I'll leave it at that because of the potential for a highly contentious discussion.

 

Since this brother doesn't wish to get e-lynched any further, the Tee will decline to argue the subject as well.

 

But I'll leave you with this though - whether you agree with me or not I really don't care. It's really no skin off my back. I suspect by your name and your posts that you are patriotic, and want a strong U.S. military. I want the same. I earned my blood wings in Nicaragua, 1980's, first confirmed kill in a conflict I can't talk about to this day.

 

But unfortunately, the things I see and hear would suggest otherwise. If you are so interested, you may want to check out the Joint Chiefs of Staff quarterly reports, which contain facility rosters, troop strengths, and readiness assessments. I don't think you can get it online because it isn't for public distribution, but the summary report is unclassified and I think it's published in the congressional register. If not, you can probably get it from the DOD office of public affairs, although you will have to do a FOIA request.

 

I don't take sides here, I just call them as I see them. Research the available information and make your own decision. I'd rather you be right and I be wrong.