As goes the USA, so goes Canada?

[Ken H.]

Regardless of what side each of us is on the issues, few would argue that the USA has some challenges ahead of it. Economically, politically, globally, there is a certain identifiable list. (Which I’m not trying to start specific debates on.) And opportunities still too of course.

 

And I suspect that few would argue that Canada and the USA share a close bond on a lot of fronts, in particular economically. Still, there are some core differences too.

 

But my question is; is what the USA is (or maybe will be) going through now automatically the future of Canada? Is it inescapable that Canada will have the same fate/path as the USA? Or are there (enough) core differences that will spare Canadians from some of the challenges of US Americans ahead?

 

Some of the “Yes, Canada will” points I see:

 

Canada’s #1 trade partner is the USA. If the USA can’t buy stuff Canada has for sale Canadians will suffer.

Canada politically has been of late shifting more toward were the USA has been for the last 7 (60?) years.

Canada militarily has been more active in global spots.

Some crime trends that have plagued the USA for decades are now rising in Canada too.

Canada (western in particular) has been in a hyper-fast growth bubble. Or is it a “bubble” that is bound to burst, at all?

 

Some of the “No, Canada is different” points I can think of:

 

Canada has far more hard sellable resources than the USA which should insulate it from a USA downturn to some extent.

It has a balanced budget.

Doesn’t have the whole sub-prime mortgage mess.

Canada fundamentally has a different political system than the USA that reacts faster. E.g. – The “Vote of No Confidence” that can force an election.

Canada doesn't have the same history of race related issues that the USA has.

Canada historically has a reputation of being more globally neutral than the USA.

Still has much, much lower crime rates than the USA.

 

I think it is an interesting subject that while we are so much the same, we still are very much different in a lot of respects.

 

Thoughts?

[smiller]

Canada has about 1/10 of the population of the United States. Many of what differences there are likely begin and end there.

[BUSTED]

Canada does not spend over 50% of it's budget to the military and war business as the US does. US military expenditures equal world ranked countries 2 thru 16 combined based on final 2006 stats.

[T__]

Ken, one difference I can see between the USA & Canada is their choice some years back to become self supplied on petroleum energy.. That definitely cost them more in the short run but I think is paying them back in economy stability now.. They are not so dependent on world petroleum supplies to remain a viable economy & life style..

 

Twisty

[Dave McReynolds]

Canada has about 1/10 of the population of the United States. Many of what differences there are likely begin and end there.

 

They may begin there, but with the probable effects of global warming, I think there will be an increase in Canada's population in the future as people move toward more temperate climate zones.

[David]

I'd add two things to your list.

 

1. Immigration. Canada is far ahead (why they let people in) and far behind (asylum mess) in this one area.

 

2. Health care. Canada ain't what it used to be.

[Whip]

I spent a lot of time in Canada this summer. I really liked it. My only complaint is the cost of living. Gas was over $5 a gallon and cheeseburgers were $10. The people were very nice and I look forward to my next visit. I will add the people of Western Canada are not happy with Eastern Canada.

 

I cannot explain without entering into politics.

 

Whip

[Francois_Dumas]

People of northern Italy are not happy with those from the south, people from northern Belgium are not happy with those of southern Belgium, people of northern Europe often are not-so-happy with those from the south...... and in general people from the West are not happy with those from the East.

 

I sport a trend here, but wonder why ??

[BUSTED]

Hey, in New Jersey they break themselves up into North Jersey, South Jersey, and middle Jersey! From my experience there they don't like to be mistaken for one of the other two!

[MattS]

Hey, in New Jersey they break themselves up into North Jersey, South Jersey, and middle Jersey! From my experience there they don't like to be mistaken for one of the other two!

How 'bout the next block?

[Francois_Dumas]

Hey, in New Jersey they break themselves up into North Jersey, South Jersey, and middle Jersey! From my experience there they don't like to be mistaken for one of the other two!

How 'bout the next block?

 

[MNCruiser]

Another huge Canadian advantage in the long term in addition to the huge oil reserves....fresh water, and lots of it. Maybe not so important now, but it will be.

[RonStewart]

Whips "only complaint is the cost of living. Gas was over $5 a gallon and cheeseburgers were $10."

 

Our gas has been more expensive than yours for a long time because of taxation. I don't know where you bought a $10 cheeseburger. The best ones in town are $5.75 at Vera's.

 

Compared to yours, our dollar has risen about 20% lately (yours has dropped 25% compared to ours [do the math]). So the cost of living in Canada in American dollars has risen dramatically, but in our currency it has been very steady. Wild currency swings make comparisons of costs of living tricky comparisons.

 

The conventional wisdom is that our resource-based economy will be stronger. But if you come to Vancouver, you will find that where once we were a city based upon the transportation of resources, we have become a service-sector city because those resources have been depleted and our population has increased.

 

I completely disagree that our politics have become more American. You can find individual examples to the contrary, but part of a Canadian politician's bread-and-butter is maintaining the Canadian identity of government and culture. Failure to do so results in a failure to be elected.

[SANTA]

I do not have a crystal ball. but willingly share from a proudly canadian viewpoint...

 

there are many things in which we just an extention of the USA, some of the more obvious are, news sports, entertainment, consumerism

 

we are different in our politics, culture, business interests.

 

i see canada still focused as a resource supplier, our lumber, minerals, oil, beef, grain and food stuffs are exported or sought after by may nations around the world. the USA has been a good customer

 

so in a sense as long as the USA requires resources i think canada will do well. however if the usa suffers a major economical downturn i have no doubt canada will suffer too.

 

we are also different in that we have a large concentrated population speaking french, and culturally we still have close ties to the motherland (UK) combined these have us still living a greater awareness of our euro roots. (heck in some cases the cars we buy are european models with NA emission systems) (in quebec 40% of all VW's are sold as diesel)

 

on politics, one of your canadidates just spent over 50mil to get his butt kicked in FL, our entire election have never cost this much.

 

we can be very frugal: we only need 3 downs for 10 yds(CFL vs NFL), and most canadians would chose a fuel efficent vehicle except the albertans who think that its their right to haul groceries in a 4x4 3/4t at 5 mpg... they don't beleive the oil/ bitumen will ever run out...

 

we are not energy efficent, eastern canada decline to pay a made in canada price for their oil and so the east and ontario still import oil,

 

crime is everywhere, in that regard we are not much different than the USA. our handgun laws have skewed the statistics

 

better stop there before i lose it all

[MNCruiser]

In Canada, the prime minister calls an election, and 5 weeks later it over. It is no less democratic, at a tiny fraction of the cost. How many times do you have to hear the same BS in order to decide who to vote for. What a colossal waste of money!

[Big_Gray]

I don't want Canada to become more like the United States. I like it fine here just the way it is.

 

I don't need the right to bare arms. With our climate, a long sleeved shirt works just fine.

 

On the other hand, I cannot think of another country in the world that I would rather have for a next door neighbor. I love to visit once or twice a year but it is always good to get back home.

[notacop]

I dunno, if Canada were smart they'd build a wall all along the southern border of thier country in a ramp shape. That way all the illegals that filter here from the north would have an easy approach to the wall. jump over and couldn't get back. Then they'd cut all ties with the us and leave us to our own problems.

Maybe can the queen crap and side with the French. Eastern Canada is ready for that already.

They own the mineral rights for most of the mines here currently so they'd still have an income.

They could charge the heck out of the oil shale we need too.

Don't suppose it matters that much anyway, Eh?

[bimmers]

and you can die waiting for healthcare as private care is outlawed! I hope I have it right as I hate it myself when people are ignorant about facts.

It is more european especially the eastern side and the western side is becoming more asian. You can buy citizenship as many from Hong Kong did prior to 97. But you may get stopped at the border with a pair of nailclipper scissors as they can be used to earn money (work) with (personal experience) they were confiscated as tools and I had no work permit.

nice people and lots of acreage per person and lots of taxes to pay.

 

h

[steve.foote]

On the other hand, I cannot think of another country in the world that I would rather have for a next door neighbor. I love to visit once or twice a year but it is always good to get back home.

I agree. I think Canada and the US have enjoyed a very good relationship over the years. Heck, it's not perfect, but I can think of a lot of things which could be worse.

[GelStra]

I'll be curious just how difference there will be as we head towards a North American Union.

[RonStewart]

But you may get stopped at the border with a pair of nailclipper scissors as they can be used to earn money (work) with (personal experience) they were confiscated as tools and I had no work permit.

That happens in both directions. DAMHIK.

[SANTA]

On the other hand, I cannot think of another country in the world that I would rather have for a next door neighbor. I love to visit once or twice a year but it is always good to get back home.

 

takes the words right out of my mouth, you guys are good neighboUrs, i hope that you can feel the same about us...

[Ken H.]

Canada does not spend over 50% of it's budget to the military and war business as the US does. US military expenditures equal world ranked countries 2 thru 16 combined based on final 2006 stats.

Yes, but are you saying that will help or hurt Canada from suffering some of the same challenges the USA has?

[Ken H.]

1. Immigration. Canada is far ahead (why they let people in) and far behind (asylum mess) in this one area.

Not sure I follow you completely. Do you think Canada's current merit-based points immigration system is a help or a hindrance to their prosperity potential? By asylum are you referring to the long since dead asylum programs of the '70s and '80s?

2. Health care. Canada ain't what it used to be.

You feel their universal health care programs will hurt or help Canada vs. the USA system?

[David]

1. Immigration. Canada is far ahead (why they let people in) and far behind (asylum mess) in this one area.

Not sure I follow you completely. Do you think Canada's current merit-based points immigration system is a help or a hindrance to their prosperity potential? By asylum are you referring to the long since dead asylum programs of the '70s and '80s?

 

I think that their normal worker immigration is a boon to their prosperity. It's more reasonable. I don't think their political asylum provisions are helpful.

 

2. Health care. Canada ain't what it used to be.

You feel their universal health care programs will hurt or help Canada vs. the USA system?

 

I think that Canada's health system can't be held up as a model to the same degree it has in the past. It seems like cracks are appearing in the foundation. I still think it's better than the U.S. model, but as you folks allow more and more exceptions and we move away from a market-based healthcare system, we'll meet toward the middle at some point. Right now it's one of the largest issues holding back small business in the U.S.

[SANTA]

i'm not sure were our health care system is heading, i worked with a man who had come up from the USA (transfered by the employer) and his insight was that from a dollar cost basis his tax increase pretty much offset the health care insurance he was paying in the USA. however in the USA he could get immediate access to a specialist under his insurance were as in Canada he'd waited a year to get into see one. the demands being made to cover this, that, and anything else has strangled the health care system, added to the fact that our doctors tend to have annual billing caps, means that many of the good ones have left and moved to the USA for the better money, many of our doctoring positions are now being filled by qualified immigrants, but we could have double the number and none would be idle.

 

this of coarse leads to another topic... the unwillingness of the upcoming generation to work...

[marcopolo]

Canada does not spend over 50% of it's budget to the military and war business as the US does. US military expenditures equal world ranked countries 2 thru 16 combined based on final 2006 stats.

Yes, but are you saying that will help or hurt Canada from suffering some of the same challenges the USA has?

 

Significantly lower defence expenditures have allowed us up here to, among other things, eliminate the deficit, and start paying down the debt. We're not a superpower, but an engaged middle power. Imagine what your finances would be like, if you were not paying for the war in Iraq. Of course, living next door to the US, who's about to attack us (I'm excluding terrorists from that list. Given our combat role in Afghanistan since 2002, we've been on Bin Laden's published hit list for a while now).

 

I was in the defence business for 38 years. We always used to joke that, after the collapse of communism, the US was in an arms race with itself. It generally leaves us scratching our heads. How much is enough? Each country decides for itself, but it (defence spending) does suck the dollars out of a lot of other things.

[smiller]

Imagine what your finances would be like, if you were not paying for the war in Iraq.

Imagine what your finances would be like if you paid a fully equal share of the cost of defending North America.

[Matts_12GS]

Imagine what your finances would be like, if you were not paying for the war in Iraq.

Imagine what your finances would be like if you paid a fully equal share of the cost of defending North America.

 

You go boy!!!!

[smiller]

I should note that I didn't mean that comment in a nasty way or to cause any offense, but nevertheless it is an elephant in the room when discussing national expenditures. Canadaian taxes are already rather high in support of social programs... imagine what they would be if a full army/nuclear deterrent had to be maintained. Might even cut into the healthcare budget a bit.

[Dave McReynolds]

imagine what they would be if a full army/nuclear deterrent had to be maintained. Might even cut into the healthcare budget a bit.

 

Just to keep perspective on this, there is a substantial base of opinion in the US that our expenditures on defense have been hugely out of proportion to our need. To avoid this deteriorating into a political discussion, please note that I'm not arguing that our defense expenditures have been hugely out of proportion to our need, just acknowledging that the contrary view exists.

[smiller]

Just to keep perspective on this, there is a substantial base of opinion in the US that our expenditures on defense have been hugely out of proportion to our need.

I don't disagree with this at all but I'm not sure that it's necessarily related to my comment. Even if our expenditures were cut in half the factor I mentioned would still exist.

[Dave McReynolds]

I don't disagree with this at all but I'm not sure that it's necessarily related to my comment. Even if our expenditures were cut in half the factor I mentioned would still exist.

 

True, and I doubt many people would feel secure if we cut our expenditures by more than half. You need a big brother if you're going to do that.

 

But imagine what could be done with even 10% of the defense budget!

[smiller]

But imagine what could be done with even 10% of the defense budget!

I don't want to... it hurts.

 

Or even just the half-trillion dollars we've spent on... err.. nevermind...

[Mister Tee]

Please note:

 

As Dave states below, please don't cross the line into partisan politics.

 

Thanks!

[Dave McReynolds]

I think my post led to your comments, so I apologize, but you're way over the line into a political discussion. Plus it's not on point (neither was mine).

[steve.foote]

We're closing bases right and left and readiness is at an all time low.

 

Um, you sure about that? I would argue that right now we have the most experienced and combat-ready military on the planet. What do you think our armed forces have been doing the last five years, playing tiddlywinks?

[StuGotz]

RE: North American Union.

 

Stay tuned for the "Amero", not unlike the "Euro".....

 

The powers that be are already kickin' this one around.

 

MB>

[ghaverkamp]

The powers that be are already kickin' this one around.

 

Right off each others' tinfoil hats.

[smiller]

Right off each others' tinfoil hats.

Don't laugh... those hats are the only thing between us and the New World Order.

[MattS]

Right off each others' tinfoil hats.

In the shadows of the black helicopters, as they scurry from Freemasons meeting to Freemasons meeting, speaking Aramaic.

[marcopolo]

Imagine what your finances would be like, if you were not paying for the war in Iraq.

Imagine what your finances would be like if you paid a fully equal share of the cost of defending North America.

 

We are spending what we consider an appropriate amount to defend ourselves, first off, and to defend North America secondly. Besides, it's not the easiest thing, for you or us, to nail down with great precision how much of our respective defence (or other) budgets are devoted to "defending North America"

 

We decide for ourselves what's appropriate. It will always be less than the US; you're ten times the size, and you spend more on defence than anyone else in the world. It's all about choices; we make ours; you make yours. I think the original question was getting at the implications of those choices, not whether we agreed, or disagreed on the choices themselves.

[smiller]

Besides, it's not the easiest thing, for you or us, to nail down with great precision how much of our respective defence (or other) budgets are devoted to "defending North America"

There is no meaningful difference. The US must consider (for its own security if nothing else) any attack on any country in this hemisphere as a threat to the security of the US, and thus will defend any country in the region if attacked. Any other nation in the region may choose (and in fact have chosen) to maintain a comparatively small military (and associated expense) for their size. That is indeed their choice, but it should be recognized that choice only exists as a result of the protective umbrella provided by the US, whether it is desired/appreciated or not. You don't have to agree with every US policy (I sure don't), but the facts are what they are. I'm glad Canada is such a friendly country, but unfortunately history has demonstrated that that alone is not an adequate defense. Trident submarines help too.

 

Out of curiosity, if the US did not exist would you be in favor of Canada maintaining its military capabilities at their current level?

[marcopolo]

Out of curiosity, if the US did not exist would you be in favor of Canada maintaining its military capabilities at their current level?

 

I can't answer that, not because I'm trying to duck the question, but because I have no idea what the geo-strategic situation would be without the US.

[Ken H.]

Well at least my question stayed on topic for a little while before deteriorating into an argument about a specific subject.

 

Sigh...

[ghaverkamp]

I can't answer that, not because I'm trying to duck the question, but because I have no idea what the geo-strategic situation would be without the US.

 

You make it sound so difficult. Just go back to the late 18th century, have England decisively win, and project 230 years forward.

[Dave McReynolds]

Quote:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Out of curiosity, if the US did not exist would you be in favor of Canada maintaining its military capabilities at their current level?

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

I can't answer that, not because I'm trying to duck the question, but because I have no idea what the geo-strategic situation would be without the US.

 

I'd just like to acknowledge that Canada has stepped up to the plate when the chips were down. In WWII, Canada suffered a greater loss in military casualties as a percentage of its population than did the USA.

[smiller]

Well at least my question stayed on topic for a little while before deteriorating into an argument about a specific subject.

Hey, we're just trying to discuss how we spend our Ameros.

[MikeRC]

I would like to get back on topic, and particularly off the military mess.

 

If the US goes into a recession will Canada also go into a recession?

 

Well, I've heard that since the US is the largest market for consumer goods: "as goes the US, so goes the world".

 

But what will really happen to other countries (including Canada)? Monetary policies aren't what they were 20 years ago. With more free trade, independent currency fluctuations, rising consumer power in emerging market countries (Russia, Brazil, India & China for example) and independent interest rate policies the world economy is not as closely tied into the US economy as it once was. Canada has more direct trade with Pacific Rim countries then ever before, but still much smaller then our trade with the US.

 

In fact (according to Statistics Canada) 81% of our exports go to the US vs. 64% in 1980.

 

Debt-to-income levels are about the same in both countries. We both have about $1.15 of personal debt for every $1.00 of income.

 

Right now Canada has a Bank Rate nearly 2% higher then the US - which strengthens our currency and attracts investment. But it costs us in slower development (replacement of equipment) and more expensive exports. And we have higher mortgage rates. Our manufacturing sector is in almost as much trouble as much of the US. We do have an advantage in exporting of raw or semi-refined materials. But as usual we send off our oil, coal, iron, and nickel to other countries to be refined and turned in to end products. I say that, but 40% of our exports to the US are actually manufactured goods.

 

And if you think we weren't involved in the whole subprime mortgage mess you better look at some bank statements. CIBC alone has had to take $3 billion in write downs, and the total Canadian investment industry exposure is estimated as high as $35 billion.

 

Canada exports roughly 50% more oil then it consumes, but that is very regional. The east coast is dependent on imports. And since we don’t fix the price of energy, global prices have the same effect on industry and domestic costs as anywhere else in the world.

 

And just in case you were wondering, the US imports only 15% of its oil from Canada.

 

Crime statistics (at least from Statistics Canada) indicate a much higher rate of violent and personal crimes in the US, but higher rates of property crimes (break ins, auto theft) in Canada. As well, during this decade violent crimes are increasing in Canada but property crimes are decreasing. Who knows what social policies and societal trends affect this stuff? Or where they are going in the future? Certainly in Toronto, no one feels safe from gangs with all the murders there over the last few years. Including innocent bystanders.

 

I don’t know where health care is headed in Canada, but we still perform very well on a global scale and better then the US on a population basis. And we have made big strides in access to targeted investigations and treatments over the last few years. Radiation treatment and MRI waiting times are half of what they were just 3 years ago. But on a global scale (statistics from the World Health Organization), we still spend much more per capita on health care then Australia, New Zealand and the UK without much to show for it. But we spend 50% per capita of that in the US.

 

Although we have tackled our budget deficit for now, and are actually making payments toward our principal, we still have a higher per capita government debt and higher debt-to-GDP ratio then the US. So we actually pay more debt servicing on our public debt. Canada has a better funded Federal Pension Plan because of higher contribution rates. Public debt servicing, pension plan contributions and our Health Care costs account for almost all of the taxation difference.

 

Immigration, hmm. Not sure what I think of that one. David’s points were good ones, though.

 

Political differences? Well, the US is moving closer to a monarchy with the Bush and Clinton families. Maybe next time you could have a Kennedy? Why have an election? And we have a minority government just slightly more functional then Italy.

 

Race problems? Sacré blue! Tabernac! If you want all the windows on your car broken in Quebéc, just display a Canadian flag anywhere inside.

 

Oops. Now I’ve gone downhill too.

 

Mike Cassidy

[Ken H.]

I would like to get back on topic, and particularly off the military mess.

Whew! Thanks!

 

 

Thanks Mike for the rundown, interesting stuff. In particular the point of Canadians still have a higher per capita government debt and higher debt-to-GDP ratio than US Americans, I didn't know that.

 

ISFA the prime-mortgage exposure, is it because CIBC and other institutions bought US sub-prime mortgage backed securities, or because a lot of Canadians personally are obligated for the same types of mortgages that US residents are now struggling with?

 

I guess what I read in a lot of the replies is that Canada may be somewhat better positioned to weather a storm than USA, if, and it's a big if, it treads carefully and doesn't blunder in the next 5-years or so. But Canada's 'perch' is perilous right now too. Would that be a far summary?