Starfighter Posted August 22, 2009 Share Posted August 22, 2009 The first posting is up on the IBA site.... Riders will be posted Sunday. See Y'all in Spokane. Link to comment
JayW Posted August 23, 2009 Share Posted August 23, 2009 Thanks for the reminder. I'll be following along with interest. God Speed and safe riding to all the participants! Jay Link to comment
Yeeha! Stephen Posted August 23, 2009 Share Posted August 23, 2009 Two of the local DFW area BMW riders are starting their first Rally this year. Great guys, Bo Griffin and Charlie Clemmer are also going to attempt to blog us info along the way. I'm kinda anxious to see how the Rally wears on them and shows up in their late week writing abilities. Charlie's Blog and Bo's Blog Good luck to them and all the riders! Link to comment
DavidEBSmith Posted August 23, 2009 Share Posted August 23, 2009 From today's report: Bob Higdon kicked off the [media] seminar with a few choice comments about the cavalier attitude being demonstrated by more than a few riders who have been planning on doing a series of blog posts during the course of the rally. In his typical diplomatic fashion, Bob gently advised the riders that Rally staff are not pleased with the tone or the content of the pre-rally posts. More importantly, Bob made the point that some of the riders don’t seem to understand that safely completing this rally requires 100% of a rider’s concentration. Riders were advised in the strongest possible terms to forget about blogging or Twittering until the Rally is over. I expect the blogging will be sparser than expected after Higdon's "advice", and I would be very much surprised if much blogging is happening at all from Day 6 on. In 2003 I finished 9 minutes before the close of the Rally - if I had spent 1 minute a day blogging I wouldn't have finished. I would hate to be the guy who has an extensive blog and comes in 2 minutes late. Link to comment
Paul Mihalka Posted August 23, 2009 Share Posted August 23, 2009 Our Nancy Oswald (HelloKitty) who some of you met in her coast to coast run, is in it! Go Kitty, go! Link to comment
tallman Posted August 23, 2009 Share Posted August 23, 2009 My money is on her to be a finisher. Link to comment
Paul Mihalka Posted August 23, 2009 Share Posted August 23, 2009 You can read a bit about Nancy here. Some fun pictures on page 2. http://www.bmwbmw.org/forums/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=14858 Link to comment
DavidEBSmith Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 This from Warchild: And BTW..... all these little blogs/tweets/facebooking that riders have set up? Forget it. It is not happening. There will be NO blogging/tweeting or any of that shit this year, on penalty of disqualification. So don't count on them from any of the riders. No, I am not kidding. Let me be clear here: Any IBR rider who makes any blog entry, tweet, texting, audio, etc, and make it after 10AM EDT Monday, 24 Aug, it it makes it to the internet, EVEN AFTER THE 11-DAY EVENT, are subject to disqualification. This is no shit. Official IBR reports here: http://www.ironbuttrally.com/IBR/2009.cfm Link to comment
russell_bynum Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 Why would they care if there's a blog entry/tweet/etc AFTER the event? Link to comment
Jake Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 So they can monopolize their multi-year rant against BMWs. (If this offends anyone, I'm kidding, I'm kidding...a bit) Link to comment
Joe Frickin' Friday Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 Why would they care if there's a blog entry/tweet/etc AFTER the event? Are they concerned about blog entries being generated during the event, to the detriment of rider safety? Or does it go back to Higdon's earlier remarks, namely: "Bob gently advised the riders that Rally staff are not pleased with the tone or the content of the pre-rally posts." Link to comment
Whip Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 Two of the local DFW area BMW riders are starting their first Rally this year. Great guys, Bo Griffin and Charlie Clemmer are also going to attempt to blog us info along the way. I'm kinda anxious to see how the Rally wears on them and shows up in their late week writing abilities. Charlie's Blog and Bo's Blog Good luck to them and all the riders! Charlie is our own ..."RocketCowboy". Good Luck Charlie and Nancy. Link to comment
elkroeger Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 Brief hijack: Is it worth taking Friday off and riding the 300mi over to Spokane to "watch the finish"? Anything for spectators to do? Thanks! Okay, as you were... Link to comment
JayW Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 Is it worth taking Friday off and riding the 300mi over to Spokane to "watch the finish"? Anything for spectators to do? I don't know about that, but I rode the 80 miles down to Spartanburg yesterday to check out the bikes and meet some of the riders. No doubt they all looked a lot better than they will 11 days hence. They are a very passionate and dedicated group of riders, and nice folks to boot. All the bikes sported new rubber and were bristling with functional but often ugly farkles/auxiliary tanks/coolers/electronics/etc. With only a few exceptions, the BMWs were already very dirty, and some downright filthy. My red mostly stock, clean and waxed RT looked downright out of place parked among them. Ah well...they have different priorities and distractions I suppose. Good luck to all. My trip down there will give me some new faces to picture in my minds eye as I follow the group online. Jay Link to comment
DavidEBSmith Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 All the bikes sported new rubber and were bristling with functional but often ugly farkles/auxiliary tanks/coolers/electronics/etc. With only a few exceptions, the BMWs were already very dirty, and some downright filthy. It has been reported that two of the BMW riders in the Rally are carrying spare final drives with them. The Legendary Motorcycles of Germany, indeed. Link to comment
russell_bynum Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 All the bikes sported new rubber and were bristling with functional but often ugly farkles/auxiliary tanks/coolers/electronics/etc. With only a few exceptions, the BMWs were already very dirty, and some downright filthy. It has been reported that two of the BMW riders in the Rally are carrying spare final drives with them. The Legendary Motorcycles of Germany, indeed. I certainly would. With all the prep and expense that goes into running that event, I'd want as many bases covered as possible. Link to comment
Whip Posted August 24, 2009 Share Posted August 24, 2009 All the bikes sported new rubber and were bristling with functional but often ugly farkles/auxiliary tanks/coolers/electronics/etc. With only a few exceptions, the BMWs were already very dirty, and some downright filthy. It has been reported that two of the BMW riders in the Rally are carrying spare final drives with them. The Legendary Motorcycles of Germany, indeed. I certainly would. With all the prep and expense that goes into running that event, I'd want as many bases covered as possible. I'm thinkin about buyin one and putting it in my garage, Iron Butt or no Iron Butt. Link to comment
Alan D Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 More Hondas, less BMWs this year. Link to comment
krussell Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 More Hondas, less BMWs this year. And a lot more FJRs. Link to comment
OlGeezer Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 More Hondas, less BMWs this year. And a lot more FJRs. Yeah, but where is the smart money? I'm just askin' Link to comment
Yeeha! Stephen Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 All the bikes sported new rubber and were bristling with functional but often ugly farkles/auxiliary tanks/coolers/electronics/etc. With only a few exceptions, the BMWs were already very dirty, and some downright filthy. It has been reported that two of the BMW riders in the Rally are carrying spare final drives with them. The Legendary Motorcycles of Germany, indeed. Rocket Cowboy is also carrying a spare final drive... and a pre-measured vial of lube to go within. At least they are fairly easy to change, if a roadside repair is needed. Link to comment
Fugu Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Yeah, but where is the smart money? I'm just askin' On the toughest rider with the best prepared machine and the most luck. Lots of long distance records have been set on FJRs. Some on a Ducati ST2. Plenty on BMWs and Hondas and god knows what else. Good luck to all the riders. That's some tough stuff there, the mileage day in, day out is HARD from what I can tell from the long distance riding I've done. Link to comment
DavidEBSmith Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 On the toughest rider with the best prepared machine and the most luck. Emphasis on "the most luck". Every year, there are about 20 to 30 riders who could win the Rally. They're all prepared, they all ride really hard. The winner is the rider who has the fewest bad things happen during the Rally. Every year, there are some random decisions that go good for somebody or bad for somebody, or mistakes that turn out good for somebody or bad for somebody, or parts that break at inopportune times or hang together against all odds. Everybody in the Rally has bad things happen, but every year there's one really good rider who has really good luck and fewer bad things happen to him to slow him down. Why have the last 3 winners not come back and tried again? How many times do you think you can draw a royal flush? Link to comment
frenchwv Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Does anyone have a link to a SPOT site where I could follow the riders? The ones that I've seen all require a password. Or, does anyone know the password? Link to comment
randys Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 all the public spot tracking sites have been shut down at the request of the IBA Link to comment
Albert Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 Humorous update from day 1 (excerpt from IBA web site): "The Rally is off to a relatively smooth start. A few riders forgetting to turn off their many electrical accessories last night resulted in three bikes with dead batteries this morning." Link to comment
flars Posted August 25, 2009 Share Posted August 25, 2009 "Is it worth taking Friday off and riding the 300mi over to Spokane to "watch the finish"? " Listen - these guys just rode (on average) 11,000 miles to get in your neighborhood. The least you can do is put your shorts and beanie hat on and go say 'howdy'. (jk) I went to a checkpoint in 2005. It was very interesting to see these bikes pull in after all those miles. Some of the bikes looked a little worn (duck tape holding mirrors on, duck tape holding fairings together, duck tape holding trousers together, but you get the picture.) The looks on the riders faces, even after they've rested a bit is very telling. I'm glad I went, and if I could, I would do it again. Link to comment
Starfighter Posted August 25, 2009 Author Share Posted August 25, 2009 I'm pretty sure I'll (or Karen and I ) be riding up to Spokane if for no other reason than to cheer an amazing group or riders and their accomplishment. Link to comment
Jake Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Big move from HelloKitty from 47th to 16th on Leg 2! Link to comment
Starfighter Posted August 31, 2009 Author Share Posted August 31, 2009 Go Nancy !!!!! Link to comment
JayW Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Emphasis on "the most luck"...every year there's one really good rider who has really good luck and fewer bad things happen to him to slow him down...How many times do you think you can draw a royal flush?... I disagree. The winner will have much more than luck to credit for the victory, though some of that is helpful. The top finishers must choose from among hundreds of bonus stops a route that enables him/her to have a high bonus point/mile ratio on efficient roads, carefully and thoroughly document this, deal with the unexpected, and schedule enough rest to stay unhurt throughout the 11 day event. All this requires intelligence, planning, organization, stamina, problem solving skills and incredible resolve. Such virtues have nothing to do with luck. Jay IBA member Link to comment
russell_bynum Posted August 31, 2009 Share Posted August 31, 2009 Emphasis on "the most luck"...every year there's one really good rider who has really good luck and fewer bad things happen to him to slow him down...How many times do you think you can draw a royal flush?... I disagree. The winner will have much more than luck to credit for the victory, though some of that is helpful. The top finishers must choose from among hundreds of bonus stops a route that enables him/her to have a high bonus point/mile ratio on efficient roads, carefully and thoroughly document this, deal with the unexpected, and schedule enough rest to stay unhurt throughout the 11 day event. All this requires intelligence, planning, organization, stamina, problem solving skills and incredible resolve. Such virtues have nothing to do with luck. Jay IBA member lol. Link to comment
Trinity Posted September 1, 2009 Share Posted September 1, 2009 While not taking *anything* whatsoever away from the intrepid folks who are attempting this amazing feat, I'm definitely with Russell B. on this one... Link to comment
Endobob Posted September 1, 2009 Share Posted September 1, 2009 Big move from HelloKitty from 47th to 16th on Leg 2! Nancy will do us proud! (BMWBMW.org and BMWST.com) She is one of the most easy going, pleasant - but driven and wildly, enthusiastic motorcycle enthusiast I have ever met! Link to comment
russell_bynum Posted September 1, 2009 Share Posted September 1, 2009 While not taking *anything* whatsoever away from the intrepid folks who are attempting this amazing feat, I'm definitely with Russell B. on this one... Mostly, I was just laughing that Jay was lecturing a multi-time IBR finisher about what's involved in the IBR. Link to comment
JayW Posted September 1, 2009 Share Posted September 1, 2009 While not taking *anything* whatsoever away from the intrepid folks who are attempting this amazing feat, I'm definitely with Russell B. on this one... Mostly, I was just laughing that Jay was lecturing a multi-time IBR finisher about what's involved in the IBR. Well, I didn't know that, and did not intend to lecture. I just think sheer luck plays a lesser role than he implied. The best competitors make or deflect their own luck/bad luck. Jay Link to comment
Kathy R Posted September 1, 2009 Share Posted September 1, 2009 While not taking *anything* whatsoever away from the intrepid folks who are attempting this amazing feat, I'm definitely with Russell B. on this one... Mostly, I was just laughing that Jay was lecturing a multi-time IBR finisher about what's involved in the IBR. Well, I didn't know that, and did not intend to lecture. I just think sheer luck plays a lesser role than he implied. The best competitors make or deflect their own luck/bad luck. Jay Main Entry: luck Pronunciation: \ˈlək\ Function: noun Etymology: Middle English lucke, from Middle Dutch luc; akin to Middle High German gelücke luck Date: 15th century 1 a : a force that brings good fortune or adversity b : the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual Granted, in our culture, it is often believed we can "make our luck". Most times it's to deflect the belief that success is not in our control. Motivators want you to believe you can do anything; that there is no barrier too tough. I've never ridden the IBR, but I slept in a Holiday Inn.... I know a few folks who have competed multiple times in the IBR. They all talk about LUCK as a component of their placement, but it's not a component always in their control. It's the unknown circumstance that is out of their control and the outcome can often be out of their hands. i.e. final drive failure or having to make a clutch plate out of a coffee can, or weather conditions, or you name it...the IBR is famous for the unusual circumstance. It all depends on your luck. Link to comment
KMG_365 Posted September 1, 2009 Share Posted September 1, 2009 Emphasis on "the most luck"...every year there's one really good rider who has really good luck and fewer bad things happen to him to slow him down...How many times do you think you can draw a royal flush?... I disagree. The winner will have much more than luck to credit for the victory, though some of that is helpful. The top finishers must choose from among hundreds of bonus stops a route that enables him/her to have a high bonus point/mile ratio on efficient roads, carefully and thoroughly document this, deal with the unexpected, and schedule enough rest to stay unhurt throughout the 11 day event. All this requires intelligence, planning, organization, stamina, problem solving skills and incredible resolve. Such virtues have nothing to do with luck. Jay IBA member I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it. Dans les champs de l'observation le hasard ne favorise que les esprits préparés. * In the fields of observation chance favors only the prepared mind. Link to comment
JayW Posted September 1, 2009 Share Posted September 1, 2009 It all depends on your luck. Consider this quote from the daily updates by Tom Austin: ...While the bulk of the field was scared away from Martha’s Vineyard, the list of riders who included Martha’s Vineyard in their route reads like the Who’s Who of long distance riding... The most seasoned veterans selected a route based around Martha’s Vineyard because they understood that the time delays associated with the ferry rides were well worth it. They also had the experience necessary to know that bonuses requiring ferry rides are often “must do” bonuses on the Iron Butt Rally. In contrast, less experience riders shied away from the unknown... These leaders in the rally aren't just lucky. Their standing was predictable from the start. The rally isn't over yet though. Stay tuned... Jay Link to comment
DavidEBSmith Posted September 1, 2009 Share Posted September 1, 2009 I disagree. The winner will have much more than luck to credit for the victory, though some of that is helpful. The top finishers must choose from among hundreds of bonus stops a route that enables him/her to have a high bonus point/mile ratio on efficient roads, carefully and thoroughly document this, deal with the unexpected, and schedule enough rest to stay unhurt throughout the 11 day event. All this requires intelligence, planning, organization, stamina, problem solving skills and incredible resolve. Such virtues have nothing to do with luck. All of the top riders have those skills, and all of the top riders have very similar skills. But no matter how skilled you are at planning and execution, unexpected things happen, and they happen to all the riders. One rider picks one bonus, another rider picks a different bonus, and there's an accident that blocks one of the roads and that rider gets shut out. Or the traffic happens to be heavier today going to this bonus and lighter to that. A hurricane changes direction and the rider who was heading into it has clear sailing, and the rider who was heading away from it is swamped. A rider loses an oil filler cap and the time taken to fix it throws off the timing of the rest of the route. A deer decides to cross the road in the fraction of a second that a rider is occupying the same space. How about this: Rider A heads for a bonus at Denali, decides he can't make it, and turns around. Rider B, who is actually ahead of Rider A on points, sees A coming back down the road from Denali, and calculates that if A has been there, the Denali points will put A ahead. B changes his route, goes to Denali, but is time-barred at the finish. A doesn't see B going to Denali, he continues on his way, and wins the rally. Had B come along 5 minutes later, he wouldn't have seen A, he wouldn't thought he needed to go to Denali, and he would have won the rally. Had A seen B make the turn to Denali, he would have headed there, too, and also been time-barred. The difference between winning and losing was the random factor of being in the wrong place at the right time. It doesn't denigrate the top riders to say that luck is a major factor. Every rider will admit that they screwed some things up, but good riders screw up less than bad riders. Every rider will tell you that the wheel of luck spun a few times, and sometimes it came up good and sometimes it came up bad, and the winner will have more of the former and fewer of the latter. The top riders' skills put them in a position to win, good luck or bad does the final positioning. Link to comment
KMG_365 Posted September 1, 2009 Share Posted September 1, 2009 It doesn't denigrate the top riders to say that luck is a major factor. Every rider will admit that they screwed some things up, but good riders screw up less than bad riders. Every rider will tell you that the wheel of luck spun a few times, and sometimes it came up good and sometimes it came up bad, and the winner will have more of the former and fewer of the latter. The top riders' skills put them in a position to win, good luck or bad does the final positioning. That's why I always ride with my lucky astrology mood watch! You can't be too careful or too lucky! Link to comment
JayW Posted September 1, 2009 Share Posted September 1, 2009 ....The top riders' skills put them in a position to win, good luck or bad does the final positioning.... Yes, I can definitely see how the final outcome could play out that way. Even the best routing and superhuman stamina can all be for naught if there are long unavoidable delays or disaster. Good luck or bad luck matters, but I just don't agree that it is the predominant deciding factor in who the top finishers are. Thanks for the response. I am really enjoying following the event. Jay Link to comment
DavidEBSmith Posted September 2, 2009 Share Posted September 2, 2009 Luck is not the predominant deciding factor in who the top finishers are. It is a predominant deciding factor in who finishes where among the top finishers. The top riders in the IBR are different from you and me (well, me, certainly). I read an article on tennis years ago, I believe by David Foster Wallace, that talked about the rankings of professional tennis players. One of the things it mentioned was that somebody who is ranked, say, 35th in the world, is an entirely different caliber of player than the rest of the world, and yet that 35th-ranked player will never make the jump to the top because those players have an even more rarified skill set that #35 can't ever hope to match. It's the same for the top riders in the IBR. I say "top riders" rather than "top finishers" because the top riders often finish at the bottom of the standings because they're the ones pushing the limits and, with bad luck, sometimes falling just short. George Barnes, for example, didn't lose his skills between 1999 (when he won) and 2001 (when he finished 82nd). In 1999 he pushed the envelope and everything worked for him, and in 2001 he pushed the envelope and a lot of things didn't work for him. (And though I finished 22 places ahead of George in 2001, that doesn't tell you anything meaningful at all about our relative riding abilities). The top riders in the IBR are all much, much better than the rest of us. But they're not all much, much better than each other. They all have incredible routing skills, incredible stamina, incredible willpower, and incredible riding skills. Some are better at routing, some are better at riding, some are better at dealing with changing circumstances. But if you look at the routes they choose and the rides they ride, they're very similar (and un-doable by mere mortals). Look at Jeff Earls' and Jim Owen's routes on leg 1 this year - they're different, you can't say one is better or worse, and they came up with two combinations of small bonuses that added up to almost the same score. The top riders all have the skills to win. If you took the 20 best riders and ran the Rally 20 times, with different bonuses, weather, bikes, you would have 20 different winners. What sorts them from Rally to Rally is what happens during those 11 days. There are so many little things in the Rally that can go right or wrong and have a huge effect. You pick up a nail in a tire. You get a bad sandwich in a gas station and spend an hour in the bathroom. You pick a different brand of tires and they're not real sticky in the rain and the best route takes you through the remnants of a hurricane and you have to slow down a bit. You pick pump # 3 instead of pump # 4 and pump # 3 is out of paper and you have to go inside and stand in line to get your receipt. Leg 2 has 250 bonuses and routing is your weak point. Leg 3 makes you backtrack through New York City and you hate backtracking and you hate New Your City so you have a bad attitude. You're used to the weather in Minnesota and there's a record heat wave and it makes you a touch logy, or there's a record cold wave and you feel invigorated. There's a big bonus in Chicago and you know a better way to get in and out than the GPS does. Your wife took a cooking class six months before the Rally and you gained 10 pounds and your Aerostich chafes a little and your gas mileage is down a fraction of a percent. You can call it luck, if you believe in causality, or you can call it probability if you are an adherent of the Copenhagen interpretation, but there's a strong element of randomness in how the finishers get sorted out. I would not win the IBR unless about 80 riders better than me DNFed. I don't have the skills to be a top rider, and nothing short of Mega Millions-level luck and random chance could elevate me to the top. (It took three Rallies for me to come to peace with that, but that's a whole 'nother issue with LD riders - not learning from pain and punishment). Among the top riders, they all have the skill to win. Stuff happens to all of them along the way, and it works out bad for most and good for one. Link to comment
Kathy R Posted September 2, 2009 Share Posted September 2, 2009 It all depends on your luck. Consider this quote from the daily updates by Tom Austin: ...While the bulk of the field was scared away from Martha’s Vineyard, the list of riders who included Martha’s Vineyard in their route reads like the Who’s Who of long distance riding... The most seasoned veterans selected a route based around Martha’s Vineyard because they understood that the time delays associated with the ferry rides were well worth it. They also had the experience necessary to know that bonuses requiring ferry rides are often “must do” bonuses on the Iron Butt Rally. In contrast, less experience riders shied away from the unknown... These leaders in the rally aren't just lucky. Their standing was predictable from the start. The rally isn't over yet though. Stay tuned... Jay They can't be "just" lucky in order to win. But they do need more good luck than bad luck to win. I think David explains it best. Link to comment
JayW Posted September 2, 2009 Share Posted September 2, 2009 Thanks again for your perspective, David. The tennis ranking analogy really seems to fit. I personally don't have the stamina, skill set or adequate desire to finish an IBR, even if my wife would allow it. The benefit/risk ratio isn't high enough for me (or her!), but I admire those for whom it is and are able to compete well in the event, even if they don't finish near the top. That's why I rode down to Spartanburg to meet some of the riders before they set off. Jay Link to comment
OlGeezer Posted September 2, 2009 Share Posted September 2, 2009 Main Entry: luck Pronunciation: \ˈlək\ Function: noun Etymology: Middle English lucke, from Middle Dutch luc; akin to Middle High German gelücke luck Date: 15th century 1 a : a force that brings good fortune or adversity b : the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual Granted, in our culture, it is often believed we can "make our luck". Most times it's to deflect the belief that success is not in our control. Motivators want you to believe you can do anything; that there is no barrier too tough. I've never ridden the IBR, but I slept in a Holiday Inn.... I know a few folks who have competed multiple times in the IBR. They all talk about LUCK as a component of their placement, but it's not a component always in their control. It's the unknown circumstance that is out of their control and the outcome can often be out of their hands. i.e. final drive failure or having to make a clutch plate out of a coffee can, or weather conditions, or you name it...the IBR is famous for the unusual circumstance. It all depends on your luck. There is no such thing as luck (good or bad). There is no scientific basis for luck. It has no force. It does not consist of events nor circumstances. In a situation where luck is thought to have an effect on an outcome, if that element was removed from consideration, one would find that the victor was more skilled, better prepared or both. The way I like to define luck is being prepared when an opportunity presents itself. It is not circumstantial. Link to comment
DavidEBSmith Posted September 2, 2009 Share Posted September 2, 2009 There is no such thing as luck (good or bad). There is no scientific basis for luck. It has no force. It does not consist of events nor circumstances. In a situation where luck is thought to have an effect on an outcome, if that element was removed from consideration, one would find that the victor was more skilled, better prepared or both. The way I like to define luck is being prepared when an opportunity presents itself. It is not circumstantial. If you open the box and Schrödinger's Cat is alive, could you say the cat had good luck? If he was a hypothetical sentient cat who understood quantum physics, he might say he did. But it has nothing to do with his preparation or skills. Link to comment
OlGeezer Posted September 2, 2009 Share Posted September 2, 2009 If you open the box and Schrödinger's Cat is alive, could you say the cat had good luck? No. I would just observe that the cat is alive. There is no such thing as luck. Link to comment
Kathy R Posted September 2, 2009 Share Posted September 2, 2009 Do you believe in the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual Link to comment
Jake Posted September 2, 2009 Share Posted September 2, 2009 As much as I agree with EB, I also completely agree that there is no such thing as luck, as defined by 'Ol G. Seneca is often quoted thusly: "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity", which is easy to accept. Perhaps the word "luck" can be better replaced with "chance" in our context, to win skeptics. Let us not forget that in one of the greatest epics of all time "Under Seige 2" starring Steven Seagal, the evil Travis Dane (played by Eric Bogosian) said "Chance favors the prepared mind". I buy that. Link to comment
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