mortgage rates

[Matts_12GS]

Well said David.

[Husker Red]

That was a really great post.

[tallman]

Geez, we always seem to end up with a gun thread.

I'm IN.

The high point of the American Empire was...

That's the reality, it is behind us, not ahead of us.

Now, a new system and another outcome may change that to; the high point of the XXXX system is, because of Y, but the when and what are beyond my predictive power.

Best wishes for a better New Year y'all.

[John Ranalletta]

Found it..

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

This prediction generally coincides with Strauss & Howes' "The Fourth Turning" (Broadway Books, 1997) which they define as a "decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one."

 

This period is approximately 20 years in duration, beginning roughly in 2005.

 

"Around 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Politial and ecomonic trust will implode. Real harships will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire."

 

This cycle typically lasts 20 years. Before you throw yourself off the balcony of your basement apartment, they go on to write, "Yet this time of trouble will bring seeds of social rebirth."

 

But, if they're correct, it ain't gonna' be pretty.

[Lawman]

Found it..

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

This prediction generally coincides with Strauss & Howes' "The Fourth Turning" (Broadway Books, 1997) which they define as a "decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one."

 

This period is approximately 20 years in duration, beginning roughly in 2005.

 

"Around 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Politial and ecomonic trust will implode. Real harships will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire."

 

This cycle typically lasts 20 years. Before you throw yourself off the balcony of your basement apartment, they go on to write, "Yet this time of trouble will bring seeds of social rebirth."

 

But, if they're correct, it ain't gonna' be pretty.

 

Food for thought...

 

When the Nat'l Debt and programs such as Social Security are exposed as the Ponzi Schemes they are, what will be the logical reaction? You can only raise taxes so far before there is a tax payer revolt. If everyone just stopped paying taxes, who could be jailed? If people en masse figure out that politicians are corrupt and recklessly irresponsible, they COULD just stop sending their money to Washington. And we might have to stop sending our troops to Iraq and Afganistan. And if the politicians then try to disarm the American people I have no doubt there will be widespread ARMED RESISTANCE. But as bad as all this sounds it would not be the end of the world. Life would go on as it has countless times throughout history. We have witnessed the dissolution of the Soviet Union and yet the citizens there are generally better off today than they were before. Italy may be ready to pull the plug on the Euro and many other EU nations could follow suit. What the Russian Professor is calling the end of the U.S. is not the end of the American people just as the end of the Soviet Union was not the end of Soviet society. He is merely saying "CHANGE" is coming.?

 

 

[Ken H.]

Found it..

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

I think 2010 may be a bit optimistic, it’s going to take longer than that for a full fledged civil war to fester and break out.

 

Did you mean to say pessimistic, or did you honestly mean to say optimistic?

Actually I waffled back forth which word to use.

 

What I was trying to convey is I don’t think an all out civil war (what Panarin is prophesying) will happen as soon as 2010. I do think days of great civil unrest are ahead, but I think it will take longer to happen.

 

[Ken H.]

Well Fernando, it probably is no surprise to you when I say that I think diversity is a great strength of a culture/society/country, not a weakness. In fact openness to all peoples of all types with all different ideas was one of factors that made the US great for its first century. But just like most anything else, it can be use as a tool to divide or to unite.

 

But I’ve expounded my thoughts and reasons for my belief in Diversity Theory in other in other threads here before, so I’ll let it go at that.

[John Ranalletta]

they COULD just stop sending their money to Washington.

Not likely to happen as most tax money is remitted to the federal government by COMPANIES, not individuals. Rather, I think the money sent to Washington will become worthless; thus, it won't matter how much is sent. Yes, I think we could see the collapse of our currency.

[Ken H.]

 

Ken,

I don't know..Change may not be limited to the U.S.

Oh no doubt.

[Dave McReynolds]

Rather, I think the money sent to Washington will become worthless; thus, it won't matter how much is sent. Yes, I think we could see the collapse of our currency.

 

Could happen, Iceland may have been a preview of coming attractions. Interestingly, the currency becomming worthless in most cases has not caused widespread social upheaval. People seem to work around it to the extent they can, and cope until a new economic order is established. Sort of like when an anthill is stirred up: the ants seem to immediately go to work restoring order as opposed to going berserk.

[DaveTheAffable]

Effbee once again speaks well.

 

This thread started about mortgages, and then continued on about financial crisis. Effbee recognizes that politics and finances are intertwined, whilst being careful not to make this a political discussion.

 

Soooo.... in that regard, listen to what the Wall Street Journal had to say about the collapse on the Argentinean economy:

 

---------------------------------------

 

Argentina Didn't Fall on Its Own

Wall Street Pushed Debt Till the Last

 

By Paul Blustein

Washington Post Staff Writer

Sunday, August 3, 2003; Page A01

 

BUENOS AIRES -- Ah, the memories: Feasting on slabs of tender Argentine steak. Skiing at a resort overlooking a shimmering lake in the Andes. And late-night outings to a "gentlemen's club" in a posh Buenos Aires neighborhood.

 

Such diversions awaited the investment bankers, brokers and money managers who flocked to Argentina in the late 1990s. In those days, Wall Street firms touted Argentina as one of the world's hottest economies as they raked in fat fees for marketing the country's stocks and bonds.

 

Thus were sown the seeds of one of the most spectacular economic collapses in modern history, a debacle in which Wall Street played a major role.

An extensive review of the conduct of financial market players in Argentina reveals Wall Street's complicity in those events. Investment bankers, analysts and bond traders served their own interests when they pumped up euphoria about the country's prospects, with disastrous results.

"The time has come to do our mea culpa," Hans-Joerg Rudloff, chairman of the executive committee at Barclays Capital, said at a conference of bank and brokerage executives in London a few months ago. "Argentina obviously stands as much as Enron" in showing that "things have been done and said by our industry which were realized at the time to be wrong, to be self-serving."

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Don't miss this!.... which were realized at the time to be wrong, to be self-serving

 

This article was written in 2003. Five years ago.

 

Oh yeah... history CAN repeat itself.

[David]

Wow, Dave. That's a good find. Sinister, too.

 

If you remove debt from the equation, none of this nonsense happens, even if you leave speculation in there. It's the combination of debt, speculation...and greed that has been our economic undoing.

 

My hope is that the fixes will be real so that we can get on with things.

[smiller]

This thread started about mortgages, and then continued on about financial crisis. Effbee recognizes that politics and finances are intertwined, whilst being careful not to make this a political discussion.

I think there are very clear political implications in many of these posts, we are just being careful (more or less) to tiptoe around them. But even at that I'm not sure that politics is all that relevant to this particular issue any more... from a big-picture perspective the current administration and the Presidential candidates from both parties have all supported the use of government funds as a strategy for dealing with current financial crisis. Not much to tell between them.

[EffBee]

Thanks, Dave. And what you've found IS important. But what I was talking about is the manipulation of the Argentine people and economy that took place starting in the late 1940's, leading to Juan Peron's election as president in the early 50's (and literal coronation as a person "of the people"), of the way wealth was portrayed as evil and those who had more than you as likewise evil, of the public demand for equality which served not to raise the populace's standard of living, but to bring it down to the lowest common denominator, and of the looting of the government by those who were in charge of its financial institutions, financial oversight committees, monetary policies, and actual funds.

 

I don't care who you support, who you voted for or who you think is responsible for the current crisis. If you cannot see, objectively, that we are being manipulated through the media, through fabricated causes, through misrepresentation of facts, through every facet of our lives into getting us to accept the taking of more and more of our money by those in power, without any guaranteed results or standards or bar by which to measure, then we will be bled dry and left for dead. Argentines weren't uneducated. On the contrary, their standard of living was among the highest in the Americas. In fact, at one time in the late 1940's, it took $1.25U$ to equal one Argentine peso. But the people fell for the manipulations thrust at them. The constant bombardment about inequality, about unfairness, about evil, about who was screwing whom, about the abused worker and the fat cat owners all became too much and they just wanted it to go away. Peron said he would make it go away. He did, if you accept that "it" was their money, their freedoms, their hopes, their drive, their sense of self. THAT is what took 40 years to rebuild, after an entire generation grew up with a cup in its hands looking longingly upward at government.

[tallman]

Fernando,

Over here, "they" want the government to give them the cup too, not just fill it.

[Joe Frickin' Friday]

Well, back to the OP's topic...

 

I've never actually met up with an appraiser before. Bought my first house in '02, and Masako and I bought our current house a couple of years ago; on both occasions, for all I know, the appraiser may have just looked at a pic of our house on the web before pulling a number out of thin air.

 

This time was different. The appraiser came to our house this morning and proceeded to:

 

-sketch a floorplan

-check for drywall on the interior of the garage

-inspect and take photos of every room

-inspect the basement

-walk around in the backyard, more photos/visual inspection

-inquire about annual association dues, and what they cover

 

The guy who visited us is the individual who will decide on the value of our house. Whereas contact with the homeowner is difficult to avoid, he did mention that he has absolutely no direct contact with the lender, in order to avoid (as much as practical) even the appearance of impropriety.

 

I'm amazed that appraisals in the past were not more like this one.

[smiller]

I've bought several homes over the years and I don't think that the 'appraiser' has ever done more than evaluate the stats of the property in reference to comparables in the area and come up with a number. Maybe a drive-by, or maybe not even that. And of course a bill of a few hundred dollars for their effort.

 

But in those pre-bubble days property values were relatively stable and loans were for 80% of the value of the home so if the appraisal was even close to correct then the lender was protected. Things are obviously very different now and it's a pity that it takes something like this to force some diligence and integrity back into the process.

[DaveTheAffable]

Thanks, Dave. And what you've found IS important. But what I was talking about is the manipulation of the Argentine people and economy that took place starting in the late 1940's, leading to Juan Peron's election as president in the early 50's (and literal coronation as a person "of the people"), of the way wealth was portrayed as evil and those who had more than you as likewise evil, of the public demand for equality which served not to raise the populace's standard of living, but to bring it down to the lowest common denominator, and of the looting of the government by those who were in charge of its financial institutions, financial oversight committees, monetary policies, and actual funds.

 

Absolutely. I certainly did not mean to diminish the years, and the overt manipulation of the people. Only to show that it has not prevented Wall Street, financial institutions, and oversight committees from kicking a country and their own investors when it's down, or even helping it to go down.

 

"The greedy are greedy, for power and wealth, whether we are in good times or bad."

 

-------------------

PS.. I hear that you've gotten some of that famous Olympia liquid sunshine that is helping to melt your snow... and collapse roofs in the area. (Wet snow is heavy!) Best wishes.

[KMG_365]

"The greedy are greedy, for power and wealth, whether we are in good times or bad."

 

More very interesting prescience from one who has understood the current system (and its weaknesses) long and well enough to make sufficient money on exploiting it (to the tune of ~9 Billion) to support his "philosophy habit".

 

Soros' economic philosophical parallels with quantum/sub-atomic physics (i.e. Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle) is also fascinating.

 

This has been a surprisingly enlightening hijack/conversation--I just LOVE this group.

 

I still say that we all have a tacit agreement that after the final fall of the American Empire and all our Mortgages become worthless, that we all converge on Killer's place and squat! We can hoard our gasoline and guns and spare motorcycle parts and do the "Mad Max" thing!

[lawnchairboy]

I still say that we all have a tacit agreement that after the final fall of the American Empire and all our Mortgages become worthless, that we all converge on Killer's place and squat! We can hoard our gasoline and guns and spare motorcycle parts and do the "Mad Max" thing!

 

 

I love that.... keeping me smiling in the morning.

[Ken H.]

More very interesting prescience from one who has understood the current system (and its weaknesses) long and well enough to make sufficient money on exploiting it (to the tune of ~9 Billion) to support his "philosophy habit".

Wow, what an article! And to see that it was written over 10 years ago.

 

Powerful evidence is currently reveling itself (IMHO) that no extreme, communism, fascism, socialism OR capitalism is the ideal. We've seen in the past 100 years or so the flaws of the first three, now the flaws of the last are becoming self-evident.

[Dave McReynolds]

Powerful evidence is currently reveling itself (IMHO) that no extreme, communism, fascism, socialism OR capitalism is the ideal. We've seen in the past 100 years or so the flaws of the first three, now the flaws of the last are becoming self-evident.

 

I agree with your conclusion; however, we've already had a taste of extreme capitalism during the period 1850-1900, when business was a lot less regulated than it has been in the last few years.