Does the economy really suck?

[Bheckel169]

I don't think I can remember a time when the media has talked about how poor the economy is doing since Bush the Elder ran for President (well, maybe during Carter's presidency). In fact, Clinton ran on "it's the economy stupid" theme when the economy was suffering only a mild recession. I tried to read multiple resources and many experts suggest the economy isn't that bad except in certain market segments. Some writer's suggest it's just a runaway media blitz pounding the economy. You wonder if some manipulation is going in to enhance certain politicians in the upcoming election cycle.

I'd like to get an honest take from our forum members. Has your personal situation been affected? Are you making less, without a job or affected in some other way that has caused some financial belt tightening? Describe the industry you're in. I think that would be helpful. I think it would be interesting to see the results of your feedback.

Bruce

[Whip]

I'm in retail tourist bidness and we depend on auto travelers for more than half our sales. Through the first 4 months of this year we we're on pace to have the best year ever. Same store sales up 20% over last year. These records go back 19 years. May was also up some I just don't know how much or if it was the best May ever. June.....I haven't checked yet.

 

In my world the economy is doin great, but could change at any moment.

 

The reasons for the increase in sales could be a result of a slow down in the economy. San Antonio is a cheap vacation destination, maybe we are all people can afford.

 

 

 

 

[Joe Frickin' Friday]

The media no doubt is blowing it out of proportion because they like to deliver bad news; it keeps everyone glued to the TV/papers. But parts of the economy are in rough shape right now.

 

Housing is seriously screwy. I bought a house for $160K in 2002, made some substantial improvements to it. Put it up for sale in spring '06; it didn't sell until July '07, and then for only $153K. My wife's condo sold a month later, and while she made money on it, it wasn't much; the annualized return (not considering realtor comissions) dating back to when she bought it (1999) was less than 3 percent.

 

Estimators like Zillow suggest that our house has lost 15% of its market value since we bought it in fall '06; this is in line with the numbers I see reported on the evening news for our area. I'm not particularly bothered by this though, since we don't plan to move/sell any time soon.

 

I'm a federal employee, so my day job is pretty immune to the economy. my side job - the Mojo - is booming, and I'm not sure whether that's in spite of the economy or because of it. Either people still have a lot of disposable income to spend on the sport of motorcycling, or they're moving toward doing more of their own maintenance to reduce their costs.

 

We've been contemplating a rather large flatscreen HDTV purchase some time next year, and I was gratified to read earlier this week that prices are down because fewer people are willing to spend big bucks on outsized TV's. Reduced prices might influence the timing of our purchase.

[Mike]

Like Mitch, I'm work for Mama G, so it's a little hard to say. My wife, who runs a luxury travel business that caters to the wealthy, has noted a bit of a downturn--those who were previously at the cusp of being able to afford the type of travel she offers are now delaying their trips. However, there are still a lot of very wealthy people who are unaffected. In that sense, she runs a rather recession-proof business.

 

However, I see it on a day-to-day basis everywhere else. Many homes in our well-off city are in foreclosure. Upscale restaurants are offering specials to attract patrons. And my brother-in-law, who runs a local food pantry, notes that an increasing number of people are seeking help to feed their families.

 

Still, I believe that this will pass and days of greater prosperity lie ahead. An economic downturn almost always carries with it opportunities for investment and new business. And, the free enterprise system will undoubtedly continue to churn out innovations, some of which will present the opportunity for another era of prosperity.

 

We have been in much worse shape than this in the not-too-distant past and have always found a way to rebound.

[David]

My business is slower in the summer, and I like it that way. But overall, I'm on track for the best year ever. My clients, though, are all involved in the marketing field. At this point they are more nervous than anything, wondering when the other shoe will drop. Their clients are spending a bit less, and so all along the chain people are more careful about spending money, making that hire, etc. The only ones really suffering are the ones in isolated sectors, as Mitch mentions: music, publishing, mortgage, real estate, construction, etc. Or in geographic pockets, like Las Vegas.

 

One indication that's surprised me is this. Two weeks ago I decided to do a webinar for free on "Avoiding Damage from a Downturn." Attendees had to meet certain qualifications to attend, but even with that nearly 600 firms will be participating this afternoon. That's the most I've ever had for any webinar--even the free ones. So I guess it's really on their minds.

[baggerchris]

The Real Estate market in Kalifornia is very ill. We will be lucky if that doesn't drag everything else down with it. Gas is up and that means everything else you buy will be too. Fires here everywhere and no money to pay for it. Taxes will no doubt go up, and the Gov wants to surcharge only the property owners for fire control. There is no water and the Salmon are kaput, so that part of the fishing industry is gone. Corn is under water in the midwest so everything in relation to that will be going up including but not limited to Pork. Meanwhile we are fighting a very costly war in Iraq and Afganistan, losing boys and girls every day. The dollar is in the pits so if you haven't noticed, it doesn't buy as much. Yep, everything is hunky dory, isn't it?

[azkaisr]

I am noticing that my commute time to the office is about 50% faster then it was this time a year ago. People are spending less on gas. When I was in Best Buy the other night to buy the Mac, the sales people there were saying that sales are off on lower dollar items more then high dollar ones. That tells me that folks are cutting back more on those things. One thing that is not down they said were Wii and other games. Might be because people are staying home more.

 

As for my business, we are seeing a hit in the US, but so far the rest of the world is doing good enough that I don't see a downturn. Again I work with people who are going to be rich even in a bad time. I am really curious to see how the airlines and OEM guys handle fuel over the next few years.

 

 

[Bob Palin]

Fuel prices have started to affect us in the rural areas, the Mountain Mill woodworking place just outside Loa has closed down because it couldn't bid competitively on contracts with Salt Lake construction companies. I'm not well connected to the tourist industry but it doesn't look like tourism is down, maybe domestic tourism will benefit from people not taking more expensive overseas trips.

[ltljohn]

The Real Estate market in Kalifornia is very ill. We will be lucky if that doesn't drag everything else down with it. Gas is up and that means everything else you buy will be too. Fires here everywhere and no money to pay for it. Taxes will no doubt go up, and the Gov wants to surcharge only the property owners for fire control. There is no water and the Salmon are kaput, so that part of the fishing industry is gone. Corn is under water in the midwest so everything in relation to that will be going up including but not limited to Pork. Meanwhile we are fighting a very costly war in Iraq and Afganistan, losing boys and girls every day. The dollar is in the pits so if you haven't noticed, it doesn't buy as much. Yep, everything is hunky dory, isn't it?

 

This is the very image that the media throws at us every day, but the unemployment rate remains low, the stock market is stable and not dropping greatly, the real estate market is in a correction that everyone saw coming as it grew wildly, we had floods and fires before and did not get the great crash predicted at that time. Everything is not perfect and hunky dory but it is also not gloom and doom as some would have us believe. Just for the record the appraised value of my home has risen slightly, the bank financing it is in no trouble with bad loans and we are refinancing at a better rate. I work for a medical device manufacturer and our sales are slightly ahead of target. My wife works for a commercial bank and they are expanding.

[smiller]

The media no doubt is blowing it out of proportion because they like to deliver bad news; it keeps everyone glued to the TV/papers. But parts of the economy are in rough shape right now.

I think that sums it up pretty well.

 

David's customers would probably do well to make changes in accordance with the current market, but probably not too much the average individual can do but batten down and if necessary tap your rainy day fund. Things will get better although the timing will vary, a few months in some areas and a few years in others. But just like the fact that good times never last forever, bad times don't either.

[Spike]

The media is once again creating stories and self fulfilling prophecies. The one thing I have really seen is the the cost of fuel go up which is causing a realignment in driving habits which had definitely changed in my neck of the woods. The other aspect of that is people have had to slow down other spending habits to make up for fuel costs. Other than that I have not seen much of a "recession." I don't know anyone that has lost their job, though I do know of a few people who have gotten promotions and raises.

 

John

 

[smiller]

For all those who don't see any problems, remember that this is a relatively affluent group.

[notacop]

Yah, sure! you folks that cater to the wealthy...the ones who drive prices up on speculation don't notice the differmence but the blue collar and ring around the collar folks feel the crunch.

Good 'ol premium at close to 5 dollars a gallon and food prices rising nick into the same uninspiring paycheck.

I work for the post office and lemme tell you that volumns of mail are way down.

I'm getting to the end of my carreer but we are starting to look like a buggy whip factory.Plant consolodations are being concidered. Other package handling businesses are feeling a reduction in product movement. DHL is closing a hub at March field in Riverside county.

Home Foreclosers are at record levels in Cal...good banking...

What kind of sand are y'all burying your heads in?

[SageRider]

DHL is closing a hub at March field in Riverside county.

Yea, like keeping a minor hub open within 25 miles of DHL's hub in Ontario really made sense in the first place...

Bigger news is that DHL is contracting UPS to fly their North American cargo...

Also keep in mind that DHL is a German company so the USA is not the core of their operation.

Finally, having once lived in Moreno Valley, I am sure that most residents will be overjoyed that the nightly jet flights over their homes will go away!

[rocks]

 

In my world the economy is doin great,

 

 

That explains the new K bike

[Smoky]

Our Canadian economy isn't hurtin' but we are heavily influenced by the American economy.

 

I am a property appraiser, I have a one man office. Business for me has been very steady for the past three years.

 

Prices in my area have just levelled out after several years of steady growth. We have few foreclosures.

 

Mortage rates and unemployment are at 30 year lows. Inflation is starting to creep up.

 

Regular gas is $5.20 for a US gallon. Dollar is about par.

[Patallaire]

Our business is up substantially. I attribute it to a level of service that creates a "want to business with" attitude among our new clients. In down markets many people realize that they have no clue about what they are doing in the market. They tend to seek out professional advisors, if for nothing else then to help them cut through the media fear.

We have never held the belief, by the way that real estate held great rates of return compared to other investments. Most times people ignore the real costs involved, interest, taxes, up-keep, real estate commissions, time value of money etc.. There are of course short term spikes and some pockets that spin those numbers, but like every other investment, quality counts.

The economy sucks, I suppose if you are on the wrong side of it, have a lot of debt and are just making ends meet. The cost of gas and food would be putting a dent in your life and could in fact take you under, couple that with an adjustable rate loan and it could be catastrophic.

We seem to be very blessed on this board.

 

[Matts_12GS]

Yah, sure! you folks that cater to the wealthy...the ones who drive prices up on speculation don't notice the differmence but the blue collar and ring around the collar folks feel the crunch.

Good 'ol premium at close to 5 dollars a gallon and food prices rising nick into the same uninspiring paycheck.

I work for the post office and lemme tell you that volumns of mail are way down.

I'm getting to the end of my carreer but we are starting to look like a buggy whip factory.Plant consolodations are being concidered. Other package handling businesses are feeling a reduction in product movement. DHL is closing a hub at March field in Riverside county.

Home Foreclosers are at record levels in Cal...good banking...

What kind of sand are y'all burying your heads in?

 

Well played class envy! Maybe a nice side of Harley Bashing to go with that?

 

I live in a lower cost area (by choice even!) I work in technology where I'm growing and expanding, our company having just been bought.

 

I imagine that once the world finally realized that the post office simply cannot compete against email and much of the e-commerce, e-billing, E-tc (etc) people had probably had e-nough of an federal department that's been a joke of inefficiency and ineptitude for a generation or more. I'm not saying *you* are inept or inefficient, merely that the post office has had this handle for decades.

 

All that said, some areas are doing better than others. It's the nature of the business.

 

CA tourism is down because the state is on fire.

San Antonio tourism is up for Whip maybe because TX is too big for anyone to buy enough gas to drive across it!

FL tourism is up for Asian and European tourists because the dollar is weak to them.

 

But, Disney is making money, the hotels are all full down there and there didn't seem to be many empty seats during any of the recent sports championships did there?

 

I agree that the media is force feeding gloom, "If it bleeds, it leads" is the axiom. I also think this is politically motivated to a degree, in as much as once the election is over and nothing can happen for at least 2 years the tone will pick up, tempo of bad news will go down and we'll begin thrive again just in time for the retailers to complain that spending will be down for the holidays.

 

Unless of course the party in power changes in Washington. Then it'll be happy days again and we'll be back in the high cotton with the best economy in the last 60 years, etc., if I can skirt the edge of politics and mix metaphors some...

[smiller]

I agree that the media is force feeding gloom, "If it bleeds, it leads" is the axiom. I also think this is politically motivated to a degree, in as much as once the election is over and nothing can happen for at least 2 years the tone will pick up, tempo of bad news will go down and we'll begin thrive again just in time for the retailers to complain that spending will be down for the holidays.

 

Unless of course the party in power changes in Washington. Then it'll be happy days again and we'll be back in the high cotton with the best economy in the last 60 years, etc., if I can skirt the edge of politics and mix metaphors some...

Please... that's a pretty blatant political statement, just as those who now say 'everything is OK' will start proclaiming problems as soon as a new party's administration is in place. We don't really need to go there do we?

[lawnchairboy]

I hope not.

 

 

[gregpopovich]

Well, at least the stock market is doing well today!

[smiller]

Well, at least the stock market is doing well today!

Yep, 'all is well...'

[BFish]

from my perspective as a practicing CPA in central Florida:

 

-residential real estate construction very bad. resales of exisitng inventory beginning to pick up.

-commercial construction still fairly strong, but concern about mid 2009 backlong.

-automobile dealers in the dumps.

-professional services very busy.

-food servcie industry beginning to feel a pinch.

-govt services declining, jobs being eliminated.

-fortune 500 business still growing.

 

 

i could go on. we're in an area with growing high-tech, defense related businesses. as a cpa i've never been busier. it's interesting, but around every corner in industrial park areas, unique, niche enterprises are having record years. commercial real estate development is slowing, but the smart developers are acquiring property/inventory at bargain prices.

 

there is a pervasive concern in our geographic area that the shoe will drop soon. those with a degree of business sense are cutting back some and preparing for the worst. i personally feel we'll experience more than a blip in the next year, but will survive and be smarter for it shortly thereafter.

 

admiitedly, i can only comment on what i read/hear about other parts of the country. i feel that we're getting back to normal after an out of control, crazy growth phase.

 

 

[Francois_Dumas]

Don't know if it is 'helpful' but here's a view of ONE European on the 'situation'.......

 

I'd like to get an honest take from our forum members. Has your personal situation been affected?

 

Yes, it sure has.

 

Are you making less, without a job or affected in some other way that has caused some financial belt tightening?

 

Yes, yes (but that was not because of the current recession) and yes.

 

Describe the industry you're in. I think that would be helpful.

 

Apart from the industries I'm in, and the customer base I happen to be targeting, there are other things noteworthy:

 

Our house is for sale, built in one of the classiest neighborhoods in town. 10 years ago buyers would be offering MORE and fighting each other to get it.. we had several requests for purchase at the time.

 

Two years ago even, a house in this area would go away for the asking price within 90 days.

 

Now houses around here have 5 to 10 people LOOKING and NOT buying... for a period of 12 to 18 months!

 

People are not buying because they cannot sell their own house and cannot take the risk anymore (as they used to) to buy in advance, KNOWING their house will sell in time.

 

The market, as they say, is 'locked'.

 

As for the industry:

 

I work in the 'hobby' industry. I have software developed for Microsoft Flight Simulator.... relatively expensive stuff.

I am a European company, paying taxes and wages/royalties in Euros, whilst 60% of our customers are American hobbyists.

The majority of flight simulator aficionados are people that can NOT afford the real deal..... so no wealthy customers here!

 

My other business is the motor touring..... again aimed primarily at American customers with their weak dollar and looking at our HUGE European fuel prices on top of it all...... that market took a tumble too, although customers here are not necessarily 'poor'.

 

I made 66% less income last year as compared to 2006 (my first year as self-employed), and am even further down this year. Yes, a lot of belt tightening indeed.

 

So yes, it is inflated by the press, of course, like everything else. But there IS a real problem, looking at the stock exchanges, currency rates, housing markets, banks in trouble because of over-lending, too much credit taken by many consumers.....

 

SHOULD this be a problem? Not really. Most countries are doing well and have growing needs and production. But too much of our lives are ruled these days by what stock analysts scream on CNN, making anybody scared and actually having a negative effect on the entire world.

 

Well, that's my opinion...... looking at the bottom of our little treasure chest. Perhaps I should start printing t-shirts like Whip does !!??

 

Mind you, I am not complaining of not getting help, or of not having a job. I chose to be self-employed after all these years and am committed to make it work, one way or the other. But the fun of 2006 certainly has faded fast, currently.

 

Here's to better times ahead !

[Bob Palin]

Thought of another example, I have a friend who is a process server in California, his business is way up which indicates a lot more financial problems around.

[Bheckel169]

Thought this was an interesting report. Though not a booming economy indicator, it clearly shows the economy is not as bad as one would think if you read the main stream media reports.

Bruce

 

Thursday June 26, 2:04 pm ET

By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

Fragile economy improves and tax rebates should spur consumers -- but not out of woods yet

 

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The fragile economy improved slightly at the beginning of the year and could grow a bit stronger in the current quarter as extra cash from tax rebates spurs people to buy more. Still, it's not out of danger yet.

 

The economy grew at a 1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, helped in large part by stronger sales of U.S. products overseas, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

 

 

 

[Selden]

"The Dow Jones industrial average fell 358.41 points, or 3.03 percent, to 11,453.42, its lowest level of the year, after a discouraging report predicted trouble ahead for some of the nation’s biggest brokerage firms....

 

After rallying for a few hopeful months this spring, the stock market has begun to sink even lower than before. Signs of stress are returning to the credit markets, and the analysts who seemed so confident a few weeks ago are predicting another round of steep losses at big financial companies."

[bakerzdosen]

Well, I'll add my 2¢ to the discussion I suppose.

 

I work in the newspaper industry, and frankly, it ain't doing so hot as a whole. However, as with all industries, there are people who stand to make a lot of money from hard times. My company is potentially in one of those positions, so to me personally, it doesn't seem bad at all. However, if for some reason I were to lose my job and not be able to find another, you'd better believe that this would be the worst recession this country had ever seen... at least to me.

 

That's the thing: a downturn in the economy is very personal, and perhaps selfish. If neither you nor anyone you know is feeling the pinch, it's irrelevant. If you and everyone you know has been affected, it's horrible.

 

Remember the old economist's text book story: A restaurant owner has a restaurant just off the highway. He also has a couple of billboards advertising on the highway. However, he then hears that a recession is imminent, and that tightening the belt would be prudent. So, he takes down the billboards because they are an expense that he can cut. And, as promised, the recession hits, and his business declines. After a while, he hears that the recession has passed. So, he decides he can justify the expense of putting the billboards back up. Then, lo and behold, just as the economists predicted, his business picks up again.

[Bheckel169]

Well, Selden, I don't think there's any confusion about the financial and real estate markets. These are sectors that have taken a big hit and will re-trench, get lean and mean, establish tighter financial controls and tighten credit policies.

On the other hand, the stock market takes a dive because of this announcement which again, reflects one market sector, an important one albeit, but only one. So, typical of the psychological reactive nature of the stock market, stocks tank and the perception is that the sky is falling. Yet, a report comes out today that the economy is showing a 1% growth for the quarter. I think it's important to look at factual reports instead of a psychological reaction for accurate information of the economy.

Bruce

[leikam]

And the moral of the story is thank goodness he was prudent enough to take down those signs! Clearly cutting costs kept him in business through the recession.

 

My take on the economy is that it doesn't exactly suck but it's more turbulent than it has been in a long time. Higher costs for gas and food, declining job prospects for some sectors like housing and construction. On the other hand, I hear tourism in San Antonio is up so that's good. I'm also seeing more freelance clients and strong hiring by internet startups (which means they're getting funded). As with most turbulence, some will gain from it, others will be hurt and those least able to adapt will feel it most.

[Selden]

I don't know anyone that has lost their job, though I do know of a few people who have gotten promotions and raises.

 

John

My daughter worked for a small publisher and rare books dealer, Oak Knoll Books, until the weekend before Memorial Day. At 1:00 p.m. on May 16, he told her that he had just hired two part timers for less than he was paying her, so good bye. Effective immediately. Working for a company with fewer than 15 employees means that under the wonderful American healthcare system, she is not eligible for COBRA coverage. She had thyroid cancer at age 14 (14 years ago), so she's been denied coverage twice in the past month because of a "pre-existing condition". She will be picking up prescriptions today, with an estimated out of pocket cost of $600.

[Matts_12GS]

I agree that the media is force feeding gloom, "If it bleeds, it leads" is the axiom. I also think this is politically motivated to a degree, in as much as once the election is over and nothing can happen for at least 2 years the tone will pick up, tempo of bad news will go down and we'll begin thrive again just in time for the retailers to complain that spending will be down for the holidays.

 

Unless of course the party in power changes in Washington. Then it'll be happy days again and we'll be back in the high cotton with the best economy in the last 60 years, etc., if I can skirt the edge of politics and mix metaphors some...

Please... that's a pretty blatant political statement, just as those who now say 'everything is OK' will start proclaiming problems as soon as a new party's administration is in place. We don't really need to go there do we?

 

Why not? There's lots of research to support both sides of that question. If you don't feel it belongs here, please feel free to PM me and you and I can have the discussion.

 

IIRC, no party has ever held the white house for 4 consecutive terms of office, and those who've held it for 3 consecutive terms are fairly rare (Reagan/ GHW Bush, A. Jackson/M. Van Buren being the only ones I see on quick analysis). Given those conditions, it would be in the interests of those who report/influence public opinion to keep that change as constant as possible.

 

In other words, it sells newspapers. Just as Fox news and Rupert Murdoch make money (a fair amount they say) by telling one side of the story and other outlets make money selling another side of the story, it stands to reason that if a person is philosophically inclined to believe good things, they'll seek out a source that tells them what they believe to match their experiences. The converse is also true.

 

So, if the think tanks are citing bias toward one affiliation or another, why isn't this a fair presumption?

[Selden]

The majority of flight simulator aficionados are people that can NOT afford the real deal.....

 

A couple of years ago a friend who is a flight instructor offered me a "flight" in a full-on flight commercial flight simulator -- a Bombardier Global Express.

 

Holy crap! "Flying" in to Juneau, Alaska was quite an experience. I have no idea what an hour of time in this simulator worth at commercial rates, but it was certainly unforgettable.

[gregpopovich]

Let me begin by saying I believe when it's all said & done...Bush will go down as the worst president in American history. However, luckily, despite what I consider to be a very nasty period for our country, due to several factors, my wine business is doing quite well ,( i.e., value pricing, high quality, solid national distribution, low overhead business model, etc) However, some of my friends that produce wines which retail for $30 to $70 are feeling the pain in a big way. The "white table cloth restaurants" are beginning to see sales slow dramatically & this is where a great deal of these non marquee, ultra premium brands, are sold. Generally speaking, alcoholic beverage sales tend to hold up ok during tough economic times -- but people are definitely trading down from a pricing perspective. Not to be overly negative, but I think we're most likely just at the beginning stages of a multi-year downturn. It's really sad to see how many people are way over extended financially (including our government) it's scary to think of what might lie ahead. People are learning you sure as hell can't use your house as a cash register anymore! I say when it comes to big expenditures (unless your stinking rich) keep your hands in your pockets & your powder dry. Although, that being said, I am dollar cost averaging some of my cash into beaten down stocks & mutual funds --- slowly -- keeping plenty of cash on hand. Good Luck!

[smiller]

So, if the think tanks are citing bias toward one affiliation or another, why isn't this a fair presumption?

'The' think tanks don't necessarily say that, although the partisan ones usually do. But the presumption in itself is inherently political as it is based, as you noted, on preconceived notions.

 

I do agree that bad news sells so we tend to hear a lot of bad news, but that's in the interest of marketing, not a political agenda. Unless, of course, you want it to be.

 

[Twisties]

In the science and engineering sector the problem is getting and retaining qualified employees. I can pretty much write my own ticket. If anyone knows anyone that wants a job in that area, send 'em my way. We are getting substantial referral bonuses.

 

On the other hand, my dad, a builder, was laid off when his Co. (A large well known national presence) declared bankruptcy. The Co. was selling homes just fine, but their line of credit was based on real assets and the creditors demanded that they be re-valued (appraised). Their line of credit was frozen without warning. They had to stop work even on homes they had under contract causing the bankruptcy.

 

 

[Bheckel169]

Gratuitous slaps at our current president without substantive facts to back up that comment are not worthy of this thread. I think there are plenty of strong rebuttals that would suggest your response reflects the partisan policy of "getting" Bush who "stole" the election in 2000. I'm very happy to offer strong arguments that Bush has not been the awful president you suggest, but the thread was about the economy and your response to my original question would be appreciated.

Bruce

[Matts_12GS]

I do agree that bad news sells so we tend to hear a lot of bad news, but that's in the interest of marketing, not a political agenda. Unless, of course, you want it to be.

 

Sadly, many media outlets are primarily marketing a political agenda.

[smiller]

Sadly, many media outlets are primarily marketing a political agenda.

I understand that's your opinion and I'm not trying to be impolite or evasive, but I don't think the discussion can go in that direction without a little lock symbol ending up by the thread, so...

[Timmer]

The economy grew at a 1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, helped in large part by stronger sales of U.S. products overseas, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

That's the good news, but unfortunately inflation for the same period was pegged well over 2%. Locally, the unemployment rate has hit 6.8%. Even though housing is in a slump, construction materials continue to increase significantly - especially steel and concrete.

 

Personally, my wife has had her health benefits cut by 20% and neither of us is seeing any salary increase this year. So effectively we're down by last years CPI increase + this years inflation. The substantial increases in the cost of fuel, food and such continues to erode our spending for restaurants, travel, and entertainment.

 

We have a rental house and lost a good tenant. He has had to move out because he lost his $38/hour construction job, and now works for $12/hour without benefits. He's moving back in with his parents...at the age of 32.

 

Enrollment at the community college where I work is up. This is typical of an economy in trouble with higher unemployment.

 

The economy has seen better days. While the media may be overstating the problem, the overall economic metrics seem to indicate that the economy is nonetheless down.

 

But like most things, I suspect it will turn around with time...the only question is: How much time?

 

[Huzband]

Sadly, many media outlets are primarily marketing a political agenda.

I understand that's your opinion and I'm not trying to be impolite or evasive, but I don't think the discussion can go in that direction without a little lock symbol ending up by the thread, so...

 

If any comment here is a thread locker, it's gregpopovich' post.

[smiller]

If any comment here is a thread locker, it's gregpopovich' post.

I think that's why most everyone had the wisdom to overlook that comment. Hopefully we can continue to do so.

[gregpopovich]

"{Gratuitous slaps at our current president without substantive facts to back up that comment are not worthy of this thread." Well excuse me! = What????he has an approval rating of approx. 28% & everything's going to hell in a hand basket!How are those for substantive facts? And you're telling me I'm out of line? Hey, I apologize if I upset anyone with my post. I should not have brought politics into the discussion about the economy & what may have led to this current situation(?) (the fish rots from the head first). This is a great board & I appreciate all of your knowledge & input. I'll now bow out of this discussion & wish you all a good evening. Well maybe not quite yet:

 

PS: If this is how you react to people's opinion's, in the future maybe we should stick to topics about something more benign like seat comfort & long wearing tires.

 

PSS: The media's fine= trying to make$$$. Just choose your sources wisely. Turn of the freaken TV and read a few well respected news papers.

[Matts_12GS]

The economy grew at a 1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, helped in large part by stronger sales of U.S. products overseas, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

That's the good news, but unfortunately inflation for the same period was pegged well over 2%. Locally, the unemployment rate has hit 6.8%. Even though housing is in a slump, construction materials continue to increase significantly - especially steel and concrete.

 

Personally, my wife has had her health benefits cut by 20% and neither of us is seeing any salary increase this year. So effectively we're down by last years CPI increase + this years inflation. The substantial increases in the cost of fuel, food and such continues to erode our spending for restaurants, travel, and entertainment.

 

We have a rental house and lost a good tenant. He has had to move out because he lost his $38/hour construction job, and now works for $12/hour without benefits. He's moving back in with his parents...at the age of 32.

 

Enrollment at the community college where I work is up. This is typical of an economy in trouble with higher unemployment.

 

The economy has seen better days. While the media may be overstating the problem, the overall economic metrics seem to indicate that the economy is nonetheless down.

 

But like most things, I suspect it will turn around with time...the only question is: How much time?

 

Well said Tim, and I think you filled in what I was trying to say much better than I was when you mention that the media seems to be overheating things.

[BadAdam]

from my perch in the land of sun and silicon the world is mixed. My colleagues at a company filled with MBA's is doing good business selling 'cost reduction' type of advice to companies and that's keeping the lights on there.

 

In my side business of managing apartments in a working class area I'm seeing that the number of people 'doubling' up in apartments is increasing as adult children move back home with their parents and more people are looking to lower their costs due to high gas prices.

 

In my summer business of importing some chinese bicycles I'm hoping that I can sell them quickly by taking advantage of people looking for alternative transportation.

 

So mixed, but not great.

 

(PS - the reason you are getting asked to be quiet popovich is because the mods here do not allow political discussions and we want to keep this related to the economy. While Bush may have something to do with the economy he's somewhat limited in his ability to stimulate it on a short term basis)

 

[BadAdam]

One more thing to add.

 

I just bought a new house from a bank that foreclosed on some people that just straight out defrauded them. Prices are dropping between 30% and 50% of peak prices in my areas of Los Angeles and getting a loan is back to normal where you have to show proof of income, bank statements and in general be an honest borrower.

 

The days of super easy refi's and ridiculous appraisals is gone for now.

[RichEdwards]

Quite a few of us here are retired, and the state of the economy is alarming for folks on a fixed income. Gas and food costs are becoming scary. I have cut down on restaurant dinners and I use the 50 mpg Street Triple much more than the Ford Explorer. My home value increased nearly 100% from 2002 to 2005 and then dropped like a stone. Our Wednesday rides have lots of new participants--builders, swimming pool installers, etc. who have little work.

It's nice to hear that some folks here are doing well, but with a 2% increase on the first $18K on my pension this year (that's about $30 a month), inflation and big price increases are a huge concern.

[Twisties]

 

(PS - the reason you are getting asked to be quiet popovich is because the mods here do not allow political discussions and we want to keep this related to the economy. While Bush may have something to do with the economy he's somewhat limited in his ability to stimulate it on a short term basis)

 

This is the most recently stated policy:

 

We don't allow political discussions. But we do allow discussions about things that are political. The latter is by the graces of the owner who feels that as long as there isn't labeling, name calling or other personification, and the discussion sticks to the issues, some good intellectual exchange has a chance to occur. I'm explaining this because the "no political discussions" is in our rules and guidelines, but the latter is not.

 

When you start identifying a sociological change by calling it "liberal/socialist" (or by any other political ideology) you have crossed over the line into labeling. You could just as easily have explained your point without the invectives aimed at political affiliation. This is when people get defensive and good discussions turn bad and are terminated. This discussion has lasted as long as it has because by and large its participants, while expressing views that run the gamut from far left to far right, have refrained from labeling others and have discussed/argued the issues alone.

 

trong opinions . . . are welcome here, as are all those that stick to the issue without resorting to naming, party affiliation, etc. Stay within those guidelines and you'll find a more open door and a more gracious host, proprietor and management team.

 

[gregpopovich]

(PS - the reason you are getting asked to be quiet popovich is because the mods here do not allow political discussions and we want to keep this related to the economy. While Bush may have something to do with the economy he's somewhat limited in his ability to stimulate it on a short term basis)

 

Thanks for pointing that out to me. I apologize for not playing by the rules & in the future I will keep my personal views to myself.

 

[notacop]

I think it's UPS and not DHL at Ontario airport. And yes the internet and automatic pay has wreecked,or worpred or spoiled the Post Office. Mailers of catalogs are sending fewer lately, seasonal? But few packages are being sent at the high priced gotta be there now rates...TOOO EXpensive. It's the economy...

And that high priced wine guy...Gawd bless Charles Shaw!