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Hansen's BMW is most likely gone....

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Twisties
Alameda Fire Rogue Valley
 
Dear Friends and Valued Customers,
 
Everyone is ok, but I'm holding back tears (mostly) as I write this note about the Alameda Fire in the Rogue Valley.
Mark & Laurie lost their house, personal belongings', motorcycles, everything except Marks car. They are safe now staying with Laurie's son in White City.
 
Wade & Caren can't get back into Ashland, but he believes the winds keep the fire moving away from his home. They currently are staying with Ted & Dianne in Grants Pass.
 
Dave & Sharon's home is safe, but like all the Rouge Valley are at Level 1 evacuation. His in-laws, son, and their daughter & her husband are staying with them.
 
Mason & Anne's home is also currently at Level 1 evacuation. He has multiple friends from the Ashland to Phoenix area who are staying at their house until things settled down.
 
Connie & I are in our home which is at Level II. The Van is loaded with Dog & Cat containers along with food, water & valuables ready to leave if needed.
 
The fire is still burning with the winds starting up again and there is no idea when the fires will be put out. We don’t know the exact details, but it appears like massive destruction from the South Ashland I5 exit all the way past us to South Medford is destroyed.
Mason has been texting with our friends in the Sheriff's Department, and It sounds like the Hansen's BMW is a total loss. We were told D&S Harley, we presume Oregon Adventure KTM, and probably hundreds of homes & businesses along South Pacific Hwy are also burnt to the ground as well.
We are all devastated, and thousands of lives have been affected. It will be a weeks before I can put together a plan, but there is always a future even if I'm not sure exactly what it will be.
 
I'll keep you informed as best I can.
 
Craig Hansen
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Twisties

Obviously the whole western US is being heavily impacted by wildfire.  The fires here in CO have been dealt a serious blow by a cold front which has brought snow to much of the region.  SLC and the Wasatch Front were devastated by "Canyon Winds" as the front moved in.  112 mph clocked at the University of Utah.  California, Oregon and Washington have had Santa Ana, Chetco Effect, and other similar upslope hot, dry, intense Foehn winds which fanned unprecedented wildfires.  Evacuations are being called at a rate too fast to keep up with, and fires are blowing up so fast that there have been many dramatic rescues as people have been trapped.  

 

Yesterday morning @Tank was having his new GS serviced at Hansens, by afternoon a fire blew up from Ashland and had closed I-5 South of town.  It blew through Talent and Phoenix and into Medford.  By late evening I-5 Was closed to the north as well by a spot fire north of Medford, just as major evacuations were being called.  At the same time a fire was blowing up from Happy Camp to US-199, forcing closure of that route, possibly taking out the "bug station, and forcing evacuations in Happy Camp, O'Brien and Takilma.  Cave Junction is on alert.  

A friend has lost her home, as apparently hundreds of homes and businesses were burned south of Medford.

Meanwhile, major evacuations between Portland and Salem, east of the Willamette.  Fire coming close to Eugene, as well.  Too many evacuations to count in the Cascades, and very dramatic scene at Detroit, OR as people were trapped, and then escaped.  

 

All of Oregon is reporting heavy smoke, and photos of apocalyptic scenes heavy with darkened red skies are coming from everywhere.  

 

Washington and California are evidently no better.

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MikeRC

Wow, amazing how fast these things can happen.  We were watching the situation change so quickly in Northern and Central California over the weekend.  I know one contributing factor in California are the dead trees.  Which, I assume, are secondary to pine beetle disease.  Of course there were the heat waves over the last month or so as well, combined with minimal precipitation.  

 

Such a shame about Hansen's.  I have had tire changes there twice over the years and I think I have a souvenir from there somewhere. 

 

I really hope everyone stays safe. 

 

Mike C 

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Twisties
22 minutes ago, MikeRC said:

dead trees.  Which, I assume, are secondary to pine beetle disease.  Of course there were the heat waves over the last month or so as well

 

Climate change sums all that up as the root cause.  Mismanagement and building in the wrong places, too.  But climate change is now the primary driver where we see even well managed lands going up in extreme weather events.  Of course, a certain fraction of our members, and our President don't admit to climate change and, ignoring that most land in the west, and certainly most forest land is Federal, try to blame the states.  We are a sick nation that is poisoning the world.

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TEWKS
3 hours ago, Twisties said:

 

We are a sick nation that is poisoning the world.


That must be a heavy burden to feel that way, and to carry it with you everyday. :(

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TEWKS

“In good hands”


This could just be a school project called “punk’d” :grin: IDK but, this young person has the gift to gab and has America pretty dialed in, IMO. :thumbsup:

 

I was out walking last week when I met up with this older gent that walks the neighborhood too. We struck up a conversation and come to find out he moved here from Wales thirty years ago. Still had the accent. :grin: Anyway, he chased work here and planned on staying for a couple years. Two years was all it took for him to realize that America was without doubt the best place in the world to live! (his words) He became a US citizen and never looked back.

 

Oh yeah, young dude...;)

 

 

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roadscholar

I like his sponsors, Tesla and Smith & Wesson. :grin:

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Hosstage

 

From a post about the terrible losses due to wildfires, to blaming it on climate change, to blaming the United States for climate change, to defending the United States.

Really? We are poisoning the world? Have you spent any time in other less developed countries? I'm not talking a month of vacation, I'm talking a couple years outside the "golden zone".

While this nation has some issues (name one that doesn't), what does that have to do with people losing everything, including their lives, right now, due to wildfires?

 

Is there nothing that is not political? 

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realshelby

^

Very well written!

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MikeRC

Updates and pictures on Hansen's Motorcycles  Facebook page.  

 

We have had lots of climate change discussion in the past, for example Cap and Trade vs Other Mechanisms for Limiting Carbon Emission,  and no end of political threads.  Lots of thoughtful exchange, lots of partisan statements. 

 

This thread did hit a little closer to home for me because I had used their services.  

 

Mike C  

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szurszewski

I have ridden by them so many times and heard good things about them from PNW BMW riders for years, but I was only in the shop one time. 
 

Last summer I rolled in, minutes before closing, on a Friday, with a broken Ducati. I was in the middle of trip with out of town friends, and I very much wanted to keep riding through the weekend. I didn’t expect them to be able to weld up my frame on a Friday evening - which they couldn’t - and would have been happy to buy their least expensive, ready to roll, used bike. I’m pretty sure I said that to them. 
 

Instead Craig, a salesperson I don’t remember, and a customer who happened to be there spent almost an hour making calls and leaving messages, chatting with us while we waited for calls to be returned, and eventually finding someone who could and would fix my frame that night - at least we’ll enough for me to ride the rest of that trip. 
 

Sure, I like to think that’s what I would have done and probably you as well, but it’s certainly not what a lot of dealers would have done. 
 

After the dust settles a bit, I plan to see what I can do to help them. Hopefully their insurance will come through, but even if it does I’m sure there will be something I/we/you can do to help. 

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Dennis Andress

There is a GoFundMe page, with this letter of explanation.

 

 

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JamesW

I was shocked and saddened to hear about the loss of Hansen's BMW.  I first met Craig in summer 1977 when I was riding around Oregon on my new '77 R75/7.  My bike seemed to be a bit rough running and I stopped in at Hansen's.  Craig was the only one there working alone in his shop area.  He stopped what he was doing and fixed me right up.  Then in '86 I bought a new K75C from Craig.  I wish Craig all the best.  

 

These fires are just unreal.  I've lived in the PNW all my life (77 years) and I've never ever seen anything like this or even close.  The McKenzie River Valley east of Eugene/Springfield has been destroyed.  My earliest memories are of this beautiful valley and I'm just sick about it.:cry:  Over 10% of Oregon residents are now evacuated and thousands of homes are destroyed.  These strong east winds caused these fires to act like blow torches is about the only way to describe it.  Here on the central Oregon coast the skies were blood red Tuesday and Wednesday as this weird east wind carried smoke and ash out to sea.  The air quality was bad very bad but we had it made compared to what has happened inland.  I just can't get over it much less believe it.  Just makes me sick!

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Tank
On 9/10/2020 at 9:11 AM, szurszewski said:

I have ridden by them so many times and heard good things about them from PNW BMW riders for years, but I was only in the shop one time. 
 

Last summer I rolled in, minutes before closing, on a Friday, with a broken Ducati. I was in the middle of trip with out of town friends, and I very much wanted to keep riding through the weekend. I didn’t expect them to be able to weld up my frame on a Friday evening - which they couldn’t - and would have been happy to buy their least expensive, ready to roll, used bike. I’m pretty sure I said that to them. 
 

Instead Craig, a salesperson I don’t remember, and a customer who happened to be there spent almost an hour making calls and leaving messages, chatting with us while we waited for calls to be returned, and eventually finding someone who could and would fix my frame that night - at least we’ll enough for me to ride the rest of that trip. 
 

Sure, I like to think that’s what I would have done and probably you as well, but it’s certainly not what a lot of dealers would have done. 
 

After the dust settles a bit, I plan to see what I can do to help them. Hopefully their insurance will come through, but even if it does I’m sure there will be something I/we/you can do to help. 

At least one of their employees lost his home , his name is Mark and manned the counter and is a  BMW tech 2-machanic, they do have a gofundme set up by a close friend.

 

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JamesW
On 9/9/2020 at 1:20 PM, Twisties said:

 

Climate change sums all that up as the root cause.  Mismanagement and building in the wrong places, too.  But climate change is now the primary driver where we see even well managed lands going up in extreme weather events.  Of course, a certain fraction of our members, and our President don't admit to climate change and, ignoring that most land in the west, and certainly most forest land is Federal, try to blame the states.  We are a sick nation that is poisoning the world.

 

That pretty much sums it up.  What I can't understand is how anyone can think human activity isn't the root cause of global warming is just beyond me.  My neighbor and I had a discussion about this a couple months ago.  I asked him how the CO2 content in the planets atmosphere can increase by 40% in the last 150 years and not impact the planet and he just gave me the dumbest look but said nothing.  The discussion ended right there.  The other thing that boggles what's left of my mind is how or why global climate change can be politicized especially in this country.  

 

Personally I doubt anything is going to change and the human race will eventually go the way of the dinosaur. I truly believe that.  I've heard many people in my age group make statements like...."Oh well, I won't live long enough to see it."  This is most likely true and it is futile for most of us to think we as individuals can really make any difference.  This is a very pessimistic attitude I admit but it's also reality.  On a positive note I also believe the earth will abide after the demise of the parasitic human race.  

 

Check out purpleair.com and click on map to get an idea of atmospheric  conditions in the US especially on the west coast.

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Hosstage

Yes, humans have affected the climate because we live here. We seem to be trying to make changes that will help. Auto emissions have been curbed greatly. Factories run much cleaner, our water quality taken seriously. 

Climate change discussions become political because most proposed solutions reach into our pocket with no proof of concept. 

But what is the ultimate solution you are looking for to completely stop climate change? And what have you personally done to curb it? (Typing on your phone contributes to climate change.) 

What is the temperature supposed to be?

Personally speaking, I was put on this earth to burn as much fuel as possible. I'm doing my best, heading out for a recreational ride that will serve no purpose other than to bring me joy and burn more of that fuel, depleting the supply.

You're welcome!

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Hosstage
14 hours ago, Tank said:

At least one of their employees lost his home , his name is Mark and manned the counter and is a  BMW tech 2-machanic, they do have a gofundme set up by a close friend.

 

 

That is really what this thread is supposed to be about, not the evils that man has visited upon this planet by simply living on it, and immediately bringing politics into it.

Shame.

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TEWKS
On 9/10/2020 at 6:15 AM, Hosstage said:

to defending the United States.


A quiet moment so I thought I’d touch on this. To be perfectly clear, I think of Jan (Twisties) as a friend and in no way was my post meant to slight him. I do feel sorry that he feels this way about our imperfect nation (because it is) (nothing or nobody is perfect) but, it kinda reminded me of this old memory.

 

A longtime ago I was bitching about something my father wouldn’t let me do in front of my buddy. After a few, (my fault) my buddy said “ yeah he is an asshole”  HOLY SHIT a flash-bang went off right on that front porch! Don’t call my father an asshole! :88: But you just did! So what, I can do that! :grin:
 

I realize that this is Jan’s country too but, it just felt a little like that moment 46 years ago on the front porch. So, I guess I need to be a little more tolerant with people’s first amendment rights. ;)


I didn’t mean to drag this off topic but I think it was framed that way and put here for a reason.

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JamesW
53 minutes ago, Hosstage said:

Yes, humans have affected the climate because we live here. We seem to be trying to make changes that will help. Auto emissions have been curbed greatly. Factories run much cleaner, our water quality taken seriously. 

Climate change discussions become political because most proposed solutions reach into our pocket with no proof of concept. 

But what is the ultimate solution you are looking for to completely stop climate change? And what have you personally done to curb it? (Typing on your phone contributes to climate change.) 

What is the temperature supposed to be?

Personally speaking, I was put on this earth to burn as much fuel as possible. I'm doing my best, heading out for a recreational ride that will serve no purpose other than to bring me joy and burn more of that fuel, depleting the supply.

You're welcome!

 

And a good morning to you Hosstage and thanks for making my point.  There really isn't much hope for planet earth as we know it.

 

Have a great day.

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Hosstage

Thank you James, I did have a great day.

As far as this planet goes, no, there really isn't much hope as we know it now, it is changing, much of it due to our actions, and we are adapting. Like all things, it will eventually end, we will eventually end. In the meantime, we have a lot of generations of life to live, a lot of generations. It's not ending anytime soon.

I'm sorry to have gotten a little wound up on the whole subject, I meant no offense to or attack on anyone. I tend to type first and ask questions later.

Now, which political party do I blame for the fires? I always get confused..........

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9Mary7

I think we all agree that we live on a living, breathing planet. It physically changes during its life as we all do, although on a much grander scale. What I do not understand is the audacity of some humans to believe, often without any foundational facts, that we have any more influence on those changes than the wind!! The earth has renewed itself through climate events over all our recorded history, and there is nothing we can do to stop the weather....... That's right, nothing. That is what this is about when you boil it down, trying to control the weather. As a resident of the PNW it is terrible to see what is happening with the fires, but we will recover as will the earth. 

It is a shame that people can't or won't take a few steps back and distill the political noise out of their reasoning ability..............

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TEWKS

9Mary7 your words remind me of this little piece. :grin: 
 

We should all do what we can but ultimately, the planet is in control. Killing America because of some sense of guilt isn’t one of the options though. AKA “The Green New Deal” :facepalm:

 

 

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realshelby
2 hours ago, 9Mary7 said:

I think we all agree that we live on a living, breathing planet. It physically changes during its life as we all do, although on a much grander scale. What I do not understand is the audacity of some humans to believe, often without any foundational facts, that we have any more influence on those changes than the wind!! The earth has renewed itself through climate events over all our recorded history, and there is nothing we can do to stop the weather....... That's right, nothing. That is what this is about when you boil it down, trying to control the weather. As a resident of the PNW it is terrible to see what is happening with the fires, but we will recover as will the earth. 

It is a shame that people can't or won't take a few steps back and distill the political noise out of their reasoning ability..............

I certainly respect your opinion. But in the same vein you have contradicted yourself! There are facts, foundational would certainly apply, that support human activity IS effecting weather change. We are free to believe what we want. But there are those that want to bastardize that by expelling "beliefs" that are meant to be more political or religious in nature than in fact. 

I do agree that the planet can heal itself. But it may also decide the course to do that means it isn't quite so habitable for us humans. 

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9Mary7
1 hour ago, realshelby said:

But it may also decide the course to do that means it isn't quite so habitable for us humans.

Hence, dinosaurs........

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Hosstage

What would be, or would have been, the perfect scenario to be able to control the weather, so that these fires would never have happened?

I'm not denying climate change, I just want to know what should have been done from the beginning.

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JamesW
5 hours ago, Hosstage said:

What would be, or would have been, the perfect scenario to be able to control the weather, so that these fires would never have happened?

I'm not denying climate change, I just want to know what should have been done from the beginning.

 

I wasn't going to post anymore comments on this thread but .....  What should have been done from the beginning is respect climate science and just because you or I maybe don't like what science is or was telling us we should have the mental capacity to accept concepts that we don't like perhaps because we, as individuals, might have to change our personal life styles just a bit to protect the livability of the only GD planet we know of that can support life as we know it!

 

I retired from the BLM and I'm very familiar with wild land fire and how these infernos are worsening at an alarming rate and like it or not the root cause of all this destruction is US.  It is a fact that between 85 and 90 percent of all wild land fires are human caused.  I also believe that the really root cause of climate change is that there is just too many of us type creatures on this planet but that's another topic.

 

Control the weather?  A bit late for that don't you think?  It would take a massive effort planet wide to reverse global warming and I don't think we as humans have it in our DNA to make the kinds of personal sacrifice that would require.  Easier to just pray to some fake deity I suppose.

 

I'm freaking done here!   

 

 

 

 

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Hosstage

James, thanks for that post. My question was a serious one, not meant to be antagonistic. I'm curious to know what should have been done, specific actions, and when they should have started. I'm not talking about reversing the damage that's been done, but to have started early enough to not let it happen.

And I wholeheartedly agree, just the sheer number of people on this earth is overwhelming it.

But, I honestly don't think we have any chance of controlling the weather. Maybe slowing the big swings in the patterns, but actually controlling weather, I don't see that as being possible. Hurricanes, droughts, tornados, and floods will always be.

I understand if you don't want to get involved in this discussion again, I've tried staying out a few times, but I'm a sucker for debate...

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JamesW

Hi Hosstage, no you can't control the weather.  I'm talking about climate and sure tornados, droughts, and floods will always occur but if we could reverse the climate change that has occurred since the dawn of the industrial age these weather events would be much less severe.  When I turned 15 back in about 1958 I could get a work permit in Oregon so I hired on with the national forest in southern Oregon as a fire fighter.  In those days there were no elaborate fire camps with shower trucks and catered food service.  You got assigned a piece of fire line trail and that's where you stayed with real simple orders namely don't let fire get from one side of the line to the other.  That and a big sack lunch that had to last 24 hours.  My first fire was a little more than about 2000 or so acres and in 1958 that was a big fire but pretty small today.  In those days there was a lot of logging crews in the woods and there was always a cat operator (skinner) that could lend a hand on a fire show.  I've seen those old guys do some pretty impressive cat operating.  Today largely due to climate change these wild land fires have become absolutely massive and most of the time it is a change in the weather that makes the difference because you simply can't attack these fires when they are on the move.  

 

Oh, another really big problem today is people building homes further into the urban wildland interface areas.  This, imo, should not be allowed I don't care how much money you have.  Also, since 85% of wildland fires are human caused maybe it's time to limit human access in these areas since people can't seem to follow simple instructions concerning campfires and do crazy things like set off fireworks in forested lands during periods of extreme fire danger.  Look what happened on the Columbia Gorge a couple years ago because some dumb a** kid tossed a fire cracker.  The fire that just wiped out Talent and Phoenix south of Medford, OR was set by a meth head near Ashland, OR.  State Police caught the guy.

 

Lol..lol.. Yeah, I guess I'm kind of a sucker for a lively discussion myself.  I'm sorry for coming on a bit strong.  I just get emotional about whats happening to a place I've always loved.  I grew up in the Rogue Valley and in pains me to see what's happening down there.  

 

I just can't believe Hansen's BMW is no more and thanks to a meth head piece of human trash.  And look at all the homes and other businesses in that area that are no more it's just beyond words.

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Hosstage

It is very sad to see the all the damage these fires have done, so many lives turned upside down, and unfortunately lives lost. 

Here's hoping things get better soon.

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9Mary7
7 hours ago, JamesW said:

I just can't believe Hansen's BMW is no more and thanks to a meth head piece of human trash.

My point exactly...... Nothing to do with the natural evolution of the planet(what y'all call climate change).

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Joe Frickin' Friday
On 9/13/2020 at 11:15 AM, JamesW said:

What I can't understand is how anyone can think human activity isn't the root cause of global warming is just beyond me.  My neighbor and I had a discussion about this a couple months ago.  I asked him how the CO2 content in the planets atmosphere can increase by 40% in the last 150 years and not impact the planet and he just gave me the dumbest look but said nothing.

 

17 hours ago, 9Mary7 said:

What I do not understand is the audacity of some humans to believe, often without any foundational facts, that we have any more influence on those changes than the wind!!

 

Well, that pretty much covers the range of opinions on the matter.  :grin:

 

I think part of the problem is that climate science is complex, and the people doing the work (or the people reporting on it) have to distill it down into very simple terms for consumption by the general public; it's not possible to present 50+ years of research, evidence, and projections in a front-page news article, so most folks only hear about it in the very simplest of terms.  Often they don't even get exposed to the actual evidence, they just get assertions by politicians at news conferences.  

 

Another problem is understanding the difference between weather and climate.  Weather is what happens today; it's drawing a random card from a deck, and taking whatever comes with it, be it sunshine or a hurricane.  Climate is the years-long average of a series of daily card-draws; climate is the deck of cards itself.  Climate change is about loading the deck with a greater number of "extreme weather" cards.  The hurricanes are stronger and more frequent, and so are the droughts (and there are plenty of other problematic changes coming).

 

As for the claimed dearth of foundational facts supporting the existence of anthropogenic climate change, the truth is that there is an entire library of facts - but like I said, those facts rarely show up in front-page articles, news conferences, or sound bites.  Here's an interesting one I came across the other day:

 

carbon isotope ratios. 

 

Carbon dating is a way to gauge the age of fossils.  It works because radioactive carbon-14 is produced in the atmosphere by cosmic rays, resulting in a particular blend of carbon isotopes being taken up by living plants and the living animals that eat them.  When those critters die, the carbon-14 in them slowly decays, with a half-life of about 5700 years.  By measuring how much carbon-14 remains in a fossil, we can gauge how old it is.  The catch is that since carbon-14 has such a short half-life, this method only works for fossils that are less than ~50,000 years old; beyond that, the amount of carbon-14 in a fossil is just too low to be accurately measured.  The interesting thing is that the fossil fuels we burn - petroleum, coal, natural gas - are millions of years old, so they contain virtually no carbon-14.  If you burn enough of those fossil fuels, you start to affect the concentration of carbon-14 in the atmosphere.   And that's exactly what's been happening:

 

image.png.2d3304b71b33cb8d0f07f906750e64c1.png

 

In short, not only are atmospheric CO2 levels definitely rising, but it's definitely humans that are doing it, and we're doing it by burning fossil fuels.

 

Some folks see the latest severe hurricane or wildland conflagration  and think "well, the worst has finally happened; now we pick up the pieces and move on."  Except the worst hasn't happened.  Not by a long shot.  It's going to keep getting worse.  This XKCD cartoon is pretty illustrative of the extreme global temperature changes we've seen in the past 100 years.  The world hasn't seen anything remotely like this in the past couple hundred thousand years.  And as the projections at the bottom of that cartoon show, it's going to get a lot worse unless we take more aggressive action.  We will see bigger hurricanes and droughts, and we will see them more frequently.  3000 square miles of California has burned this summer, but the whole state is 163,000 square miles; there's plenty more there (and in other states) waiting to be burned.

 

18 hours ago, 9Mary7 said:

The earth has renewed itself through climate events over all our recorded history

 

I'm not sure what you mean by "renewed."  There certainly have been episodes of naturally occurring climate change in the past, but those changes were catastrophic for the established biosphere.  Far from being renewals, they caused mass extinctions and the rise of new dominant species.  For whatever species survived such changes, they either struggled forward in a less favorable environment, or relocated to a part of the earth with a local climate that better suited them.  Relocation isn't a real option for the human race: we exist with notions of national boundaries and property rights, and the kinds of large-scale human migration that are likely to occur when climate change gets really bad are going to cause massive social conflict.  Climate change has already been identified as a threat to national security:

 

Quote

Climate Security is National Security 

Everything you need to know about climate change and how it threatens national security: 

1. Climate Science is Clear: the Earth is Warming 

Scientists agree that humans are causing climate change. And no security professional would wait until they had 100% certainty before acting to mitigate a threat

2. Climate Change Threatens Global Security

It will act as an “Accelerant of Instability” or a “Threat Multiplier” that makes already existing problems worse

3. Climate Change Threatens U.S. Homeland Security

America’s infrastructure, food production, transportation network, and American lives are at risk

4. The Military is Preparing for Climate Change

The U.S. military is working with allies, studying potential threats, ensuring resilience to extreme weather, and preparing to deploy when needed

5. Climate Change Will Threaten Military Bases Around the World

Rising seas and increased extreme weather will harm readiness and increase costs

6. To Reduce Threats, We Must Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

To reduce climate risk, the U.S. government, and governments around the world, must take immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

 7. Climate Security is a National Issue

 

On 9/13/2020 at 12:22 PM, Hosstage said:

But what is the ultimate solution you are looking for to completely stop climate change? And what have you personally done to curb it? (Typing on your phone contributes to climate change.) 

What is the temperature supposed to be?

 

"What is the temperature supposed to be" is the wrong question.  There is no "supposed to be".  A better question might be "what is the least damning path forward for humanity?"

 

Completely stopping climate change is too costly/disruptive at this point.  If we outlawed fossil-fuel combustion tomorrow, we'd be screwed; we've been slow to develop alternatives, and that's going to bite us in the ass for the next several generations.  OTOH,  completely ignoring climate change will also be painfully expensive.  What happens when crop yields from America's farmland start faltering, or when Japan starts having a really hard time catching enough fish?  How much will Miami have to spend to ensure adequate fresh water supplies over the next hundred years?  What military conflicts will arise when powerful countries start getting really desperate for resources?  How much will that cost?

 

If we rely exclusively on the Invisible Hand of the free market to solve this, we'll end up with a tragedy of the commons.  That's basically what's been happening ever since climate change became a serious headline a couple of decades ago.  The very existence of this website, which promotes the recreational combustion of fossil fuels, is proof of that.  :grin:  Like it or not, it will take government intervention at all levels to bring about real change.  We will need to subsidize the development and adoption of technologies, infrastructure, and lifestyles that dramatically reduce the production of greenhouse gases.  We can't stop climate change, but if we don't slow it down and/or reduce its extent, it's really going to hurt our kids and grandkids.

 

1 minute ago, 9Mary7 said:

My point exactly...... Nothing to do with the natural evolution of the planet(what y'all call climate change).

 

A meth head may have started that particular fire (and an inexplicably stupid gender-reveal party may have started one of the other ones), but climate change stacked the wood in the fireplace.  Prolonged drought leaves everything tinder-dry, which means any fire - regardless of how it starts - burns hotter and faster, making it more destructive and harder to contain.  Long-term decreases in rainfall and increases in temperature mean that a lot of these forests will not be coming back.  

 

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9Mary7
8 minutes ago, Joe Frickin' Friday said:

There certainly have been episodes of naturally occurring climate change in the past, but those changes were catastrophic for the established biosphere.  Far from being renewals, they caused mass extinctions and the rise of new dominant species.

Hence, dinosaurs......

But now I'm repeating myself.... so it's time to start my day.

Thanks for the discourse!!

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realshelby

You don't believe in science, but your reference about dinosaurs is interesting. Science leans toward saying meteor impact likely caused the extinction of that life form for the most part. 

Which happened because the meteor likely blocked sunlight earth wide for a very long time due to the debris cloud. So that is certainly "climate change". Natural? Yes, nature provided the meteor!

Why is it so hard to think of humans as the meteor? We have provided the greenhouse gasses that are PROVEN beyond doubt to cause a temperature rise. Not only that, but historical temperature readings prove the effect and even when it really started to be a factor. 

The effects of the meteor were not reversible, at least at that time. But we CAN effect the problem we created. Without wrecking economies. Ignoring it will cost more. 

Part of the adverse reaction formed by certain groups is what global warming actually means. Easy to say it was colder last winter than I ever remember, so these left leaning scientists must be screwing with us. But global warming isn't just about how hot the summer is. The effect is that we will be having more extreme temperature swings, more extreme weather patterns. And yes, warming does melt ice and proof of that is in the polar ice fields. Don't believe that isn't normal? They can measure the age of the ice, and what is melting isn't "new ice" by any measure.....

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JamesW

I see our head politician that being one Mr. Trump has been out in these parts lately trying to detract from climate change discussion by pointing out another problem that being decades of forest mis-management by the western states in particular.  What he fails to mention is that the federal government is the primary owner and manager of most wildland in the west by far not the states.  Check it out for yourself.  I do agree that there has been much mismanagement and it has contributed to what we see today in the west but this in no way should be used to blunt a discussion about climate change and the roll it has played in the disaster we see today.

 

I have long thought politics has also played a major part in today's disasters.  How can you have a land management plan that is effective if you change course every 8 or so years?  All parties need to sit down and decide on a long term management plan that can work for generations taking all variables into consideration leaving politics and personal interests out of the equation if that's possible and I think that's a very big IF particularly in this country.

 

After I retired wife and I rented a cottage on the south coast of Ireland for a month and we got an education.  The Irish build houses not from wood but from very long lasting materials like stone, concrete, tile, and brick.  Their houses are built to last for many generations.  One day I visited a building materials center and I asked one of the folks working there why one didn't see much if any wood frame construction in Ireland.  He replied:  " Oh, like in the states" and then:  "That's a simple one.  Because it won't last."  I thought it was because of lack of building materials that would support wood frame construction and that was totally wrong.  There are forests in the country but they are protected and very closely managed by the federal government.  I doubt any half witted idiot has every intentionally set the woods ablaze in Ireland unlike what occurs in this country with its interest in protecting our so-called personal freedoms at any cost.   Come to think of it the good folks in Ireland could simply buy wood fibre for building from this country.  I mean we export a huge amount of raw unprocessed (milled) wood from our shores every day.  Never made sense to me to ship our natural resources to other parts of the world in an unfinished state like this.  How does this support the American worker?

 

Now, I'm not so naive as to think that we could ever learn and adopt other country's methods for such things as land management and construction.  Just not the way we do things in this country and the sad part is it shows.  OK, I opened the door for some genius to suggest if I don't like it why don't I leave.  Have at it, who's going to be first, don't let me down.

 

Oh, also meant to compliment Joe Friday on his excellent dissertation on the subject at hand.  I read his post several times.  Just some really well thought out and presented information.

 

 

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Hosstage

If you don't like it here....

No, of course I'm just kidding. Why would anyone leave? This really is a great country to live in!

You know it is, because all the idiots people that said they were moving if Trump got elected are still here. They're going to lose their mind when he wins again.

Joe Friday, you mentioned that asking what the temperature is supposed to be is the wrong question. Coincidentally the Sunday paper had an article about a group of scientists that had set a maximum temperature that the earth can only be allowed to rise (2.7° F), and that there is a 1 in 4 chance that we might but exceed it in the next 5 years. It gave me a few thoughts:

If it does exceed the temp, does someone get punished like a bad child? "I told you not to get warm! Now go sit in the corner for 5 minutes!"

Is forecasting a 1 in 4 chance really going out on a limb for a prediction?

Is this even a story worthy of print? I thought not, just a filler piece was all I saw.

Again, not saying it's not a problem, just found it a humorous article. That kind of how my brain works.

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realshelby

I don't think telling those that don't share one's views to leave is a good point. 

 

The only reason I care to debate here is because I probably care a LOT more than average about this United States. While not highly educated, or blessed with genius intelligence, I can with my open mind see what some of the problems are that need addressed. I don't hide behind denial, or brag  that I am right without question. 

 

I told myself from a very young age, when I noticed it seemed many people tend to get very set in their ways and thinking as they age, that I would ALWAYS have an open mind. 

 

Served me very well, that instinct. 

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9Mary7
1 hour ago, realshelby said:

You don't believe in science, but your reference about dinosaurs is interesting. Science leans toward saying meteor impact likely caused the extinction of that life form for the most part. 

Never said I don't believe in science........ but the thing about science that folks forget is that a large amount of it is based on projections( like the meteor theory). Especially now that so many lazy scientists run computer programs instead of working the formulas. And like all projected future results, input info can drastically influence the outcome, (this is the old "garbage in garbage out" adage).

What I'm saying is certain fields have scientific certainty, and others do not........ at least we know that we sure won't be here to find out.:4315:

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Hosstage

I'm one to usually take the other side, even if I don't agree with it, for discussion purposes, because I like to ask "what if?". Drives my wife nuts, but one of many things I do that drive her nuts!

 

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realshelby

Oh, I think we ARE here to find out. Already happening. 

 

But I am not a scientist, so I don't know about formulas vs computers. Beyond that if I could have used a computer my answers would have been more often correct compared to my manual formula answers...........

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szurszewski

I keep checking in on this thread to see if there is any news on Hansen’s, but I don’t know why :dopeslap:

 

I’d give you all a hard time for the direction this has gone, but I guess Jan started us down that path, and it is his thread... oh well!

 

 

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JamesW

You know Craig Hansen isn't exactly as we say a spring chicken so I can only imagine what thoughts are going through his mind.  I vaguely recall a time years ago when it was, maybe just a rumor, that BMW had issues with Hansen because his shop didn't meet the standards BMW had adopted for its dealership network.  Things like square footage and appearance but in the end they (BMW) just sort of looked the other way most likely because of Hansen's sterling reputation and very loyal customer base.  I've always had the thought that if anything happened with my R1100RSL that was beyond my pay grade that Hansen would be there to save the day but now??  Also, what is to become of his employees I mean they have to be employed as in life goes on. These are scary times for so many people.  I'm thankful I'm retired with an income especially in these times.

 

I think I remember where I heard or read that rumor I spoke of in the above paragraph.  It was before the dawn of the internet and I was a BMW/MOA member.  I think I got this info from the reader response pages in the MOA monthly magazine.  I miss the many small mom and pop style motorcycle stores and shops that used to be everywhere.  Those pre-internet days were the best, imo.  Was a whole lot less bum dope in circulation that's for sure.  Again just my humble opinion....obviously.

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Hosstage

I'd not been to Hansen's, but I feel bad for the owners, the employees, and the customers well served. It's hard to hear about good people losing everything.

I sure miss the old mom and pop shops, they always had a certain feeling, a certain "smell".

Good luck to all.

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Twisties

Oh, I see I have some reading to catch up on.  But to clarify one point as the OP, I put this in Full Throttle precisely because I am outraged at what is happening the west.  Hansen's did not need to be destroyed.  It was not a natural event.  This is a man made disaster, and the politics of climate change are square on the table.  What has happened to Hansen's also happened to a photography client of mine, who lost her home.  A close friend who does air traffic control for the choppers working the fires was for some strange logistical reason put up in a hotel.  Usually she is camping when working fires.  Yesterday she got caught up in an extremely messy suicide attempt that occurred in the room across the hall from her's.  Someone who had lost all in the fires.  She is still shaking, not to mention the victim.  Others are merely breathing the smoke....  toxic to the point that it's off the charts.  We were breathing the smoke until a few days ago.  

Yeah, I am absolutely furious about 30 years of denial, obfuscation and disinformation that has led to a failure of national policy on climate change, and has devastated global efforts to address this issue.  

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Twisties

But, feel free to start a thread in Motorcycle Talk if you need to talk about Hansen's without considering that it is an unnecessary tragedy. 

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szurszewski
42 minutes ago, Twisties said:

But, feel free to start a thread in Motorcycle Talk if you need to talk about Hansen's without considering that it is an unnecessary tragedy. 


I confess that I don’t “browse” the forum the way many (most?) of you do, and I simply go through the list of “new” posts and didn’t notice this was in full throttle until you mentioned it now. 

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Twisties
35 minutes ago, szurszewski said:


I confess that I don’t “browse” the forum the way many (most?) of you do, and I simply go through the list of “new” posts and didn’t notice this was in full throttle until you mentioned it now. 

 

I feel adrift when I see the list of new posts because without the forum info I often don't know what they apply to.  I'd ask Chris to take a look at that, but he is knee deep in a major software "upgrade" from our vendor, Invision.

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szurszewski
1 hour ago, Twisties said:

 

I feel adrift when I see the list of new posts because without the forum info I often don't know what they apply to.  I'd ask Chris to take a look at that, but he is knee deep in a major software "upgrade" from our vendor, Invision.


I understand what you’re saying - I enjoy the new interface, but I did like the active threads feature from the old one and can’t figure out how to replicate that now. 

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Red

This from the Origone BMW club.  I dunno if the link is live.  Those with greater skills than I will be able to find the go fund me site.

Greetings!  This past week has been a time of much devastation in Oregon.  I hope that you are all well and safe!
 
Our 3rd Quarter Membership Meeting was held this past weekend at the Crane Hotsprings Event.  During that meeting, member Brad Stark spoke about the recent fire at Hansen's BMW in Medford.  Photos of fire destruction here. 
 
Hansens BMW is a family-owned business that has been serving BMWRO members since they opened in 1972 - that's 49 years. Many of us have purchased bikes from them, gotten service from them or just hung out at their shop bantering with their friendly, knowledgeable and local team. Sadly all was lost on September 8th when wind storms fanned the fast-moving Almeda fire in Ashland and tore through Talent, Phoenix and South Medford, torching businesses, individual homes and whole neighborhoods. Hansen's BMW was completely destroyed - their shop and all the contents gone in the blink of an eye. Although Craig, Connie and Mason and their families are all ok, one of their employees has lost his home to fire and all are out of work for the foreseeable future.
 
Brad proposed that we make a contribution collectively on behalf of BMWRO specifically for the employees at Hansen's and that the club match the first $1000 in donations from our members.  This proposal was voted on and passed unanimously by all members in attendance.  Contributions in the form of a check made out to BMWRO can be sent to our treasurer, Dave Cook at 7455 NE Haugen Rd, Corvallis, OR 97330.   Please make a note that the check is for Hansen's Employee Relief Fund.
 
Time is of the essence to have the greatest impact and benefit for the Hansen's employees and their families, so please give generously and give soon.
 
If you prefer to contribute individually, rather than with the BMWRO matching funds, a GoFundMe page has been set up  Here for Hansen's BMW.
 
Thank you,
 
Alice LeBarron
President, BMW Riders of Oregon
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chrisolson
22 hours ago, szurszewski said:


I confess that I don’t “browse” the forum the way many (most?) of you do, and I simply go through the list of “new” posts and didn’t notice this was in full throttle until you mentioned it now. 

 

21 hours ago, Twisties said:

 

I feel adrift when I see the list of new posts because without the forum info I often don't know what they apply to.  I'd ask Chris to take a look at that, but he is knee deep in a major software "upgrade" from our vendor, Invision.

 

 

Ok this should be fairly simple....

 

 

1287323203_ScreenShot2020-09-16at3_51_24PM.thumb.png.45ee6f11bf7a3bddc237d3ffaacd2d22.png

 

1517766143_ScreenShot2020-09-16at3_51_34PM.thumb.png.aa90e600e00c91ae0f019b3755d4d8d1.png

 

 

 

 

However (if you haven't already) you should set up your own custom activity stream.  Click on "Activity", select "My Activity Streams", select "Create New Stream". You can customize what type of content shows up ( picking just "topics" works well) including which forums to monitor (or not)  as well as time frames etc.  The trick is when you select topics as a content type, you need to click on the "gear" symbol which shows up to select the forums  you want to monitor. 

 

Note that the selections shown here are the default ones and you need to review each one since the default is mostly "everything" which misses the point of a custom stream .

 

1549969336_ScreenShot2020-09-16at3_24_34PM.thumb.png.94686d8cab5e21c08d2b735be7397eda.png

 

 

 

 

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szurszewski

I tried this once but only was able to create a stream with ALL the new posts - so, I see, maybe, ten posts in a thread if it’s been getting a lot of replies, but I really only want to see a list of threads that have had new/recent posts. 
 

I’ll try again. 

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