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ESokoloff

COVID-19 Surprise?

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ESokoloff
23 hours ago, Rougarou said:

Odd

 

"WHO: Indoor airborne spread of coronavirus possible "----only "possible"?

 

" the virus might have been spread in the air."-----"might"?

 

" prolonged period of time with infected persons cannot be ruled out"---cannot be ruled out,.......but that also means cannot be ruled in.

 

“The extent of truly asymptomatic infection in the community remains unknown,” -------Seems there are still alot of "unknowns".

 

Growing number of scientist saying one thing, yet the "world" agency, still on the fence.

 

Even the letter states "potential".  They do go on to state a case concerning a restaurant (previous SARS) and "rule out all other means" because of no direct or in-direct contact.

 

 

Lots of possibles and mights.

 

Many think the WHO has/is mishandled this EVENT (13:00 mark).

 

 

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Joe Frickin' Friday
On 7/10/2020 at 1:35 PM, BrianM said:

Data to watch is positivity rates. These are independent of the number of tests. Unfortunately they are on the rise. Florida has seen rates in the 30%+ range.

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

 

According to your link, enough of the population is being tested if the positivity rate is less than 5% for two weeks straight.

 

This reminded me of the plot I posted earlier:
image.png.753bc99519970d93d475799d29b64a99.png

 

Japan's overall positivity rate is 4% (maybe closer to 5% in the past two weeks), whereas the overall US positivity rate is 8%.  It would seem that on average, Japan has been testing plenty.

 

The positivity rate is now much higher than that in many US states - including South Carolina, at 22%; California, 8%; and Texas, at 16%.  From the news, it appears the problem in many states now isn't a shortage of testing supplies, it's a shortage of testing sites/staff: people are lining up at testing sites shortly after midnight for the next day's testing.

 

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Paul De

Well we are watching the President and his administration engineering the ouster of Anthony Fauci from public health service because he refuses to parrot ill founded political goals of this administration.  The laughable part is they are pointing out how Fauci has been wrong on "many things".  Who would you trust on providing the most forthright information on dealing with this pandemic?  The sad thing is that this administration doesn't realize that Anthony Fauci is to Trump as Ben Bernanke was to Obama, both were/are the exact person who used their public service position helping the nation to steer clear of a worse case scenario.  The old saying that you can lead a horse to water, but can't make it drink applies here.  I guess we will just have to get used to the fact that for the US COVID-19 will be an endemic until a vaccine is available.

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Bud

Should be pretty simple shouldn't it?

 

I wear a mask to protect the health of others, I would hope they would show me the same respect.

 

I wonder how many staunch Pro Life folks also don't wear a mask?  Dunno

mask.jpg

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TEDZ

I'm pro life and mask up.  

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Lester V
6 minutes ago, TEDZ said:

I'm pro life and mask up.  

Agreed.  But isn't there more to this than just putting on a mask?  One US health expert said that the mask would stop the virus.  I disagree,and I don't know squat about the virus. Using logic ,what about the other parts of this?  Washing hands and social distancing?  You have to do all 3. Only saying or agreeing to do one of these will not stop or slow down this virus.  How about the 14 day isolation ignorance, travel etc?  People, we are into this for a long time.   

 

Mike RC what say you?    

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Selden

flat,750x,075,f-pad,750x1000,f8f8f8.jpg

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TEDZ

I was responding to the mask aspect.  I also wash my hands, use hand sanitizer, and try to maintain six feet.  I drive a truck, and our owner was gung ho from the get go, so it was easy to get into the habit.

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Joe Frickin' Friday
12 hours ago, lawnchairboy said:

 

That article was kind of short on statistics.  It did say this:

 

Quote

Even though the numbers are tragic, Abrams says it's difficult to determine any trend in murder or other crimes over a short time span. He says for a more accurate statistical count it takes comparing what takes place from year to year over a longer period of time.

 

"When you look at the homicide data and compare it to levels over the past five years," he says, "we didn't see any significant impact because of the pandemic."

 

Bottom line is that we don't know yet.  That said, the murder rate would have to go waaaaay up to be on the scale of the pandemic.  In a normal year, the US sees about 16,000 murders.  If that guy is right, we won't know until months from now how the 2020 murder rate pans out.  But let's suppose that it ends up increasing by 30%, i.e. an extra 4800 murders this year, and let's say those extra murders are due to the measures we're taking to fight the pandemic.  Now imagine an an alternate universe in which we decided not to fight the pandemic.  In that universe, there are 4800 fewer murders, but there are more COVID deaths.  How many more?  Hard to say, but I bet the excess in that other universe is a lot more than 4800.  You can also add in all the extra suicides if you want, although I happen to think that a fair number of those are due to despair/anxiety over the pandemic itself and not over enforced mask-wearing and social distancing.  

 

No doubt the efforts to fight the pandemic - the mask wearing, social distancing, and intermittent stay-at-home orders - has some negative effects on public health, including all those you've pointed out: increased drug use, increased suicide attempts, increased homicide rate, and so on.  But this virus has killed 140,000+ people directly, even with those measures in place (although perhaps not as widely adopted as they ought to be).  Instead of 140,000, how many people would have died by now if we had just skipped all of those measures and carried on like we were back in January?  Concerts, movie theatres, bars, restaurants, classrooms, all packed to the gills, nobody wearing masks.  

 

Florida is currently reporting about 10,000 new cases per day.  If the whole country were that bad, the US would be seeing 150,000 new cases per day - which, at the current 3.7% fatality rate, would mean 5500 dead per day.  We'd lose two million people in a year's time.  

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lawnchairboy
30 minutes ago, Joe Frickin' Friday said:

 

That article was kind of short on statistics.  It did say this:

 

 

Bottom line is that we don't know yet.  That said, the murder rate would have to go waaaaay up to be on the scale of the pandemic.  In a normal year, the US sees about 16,000 murders.  If that guy is right, we won't know until months from now how the 2020 murder rate pans out.  But let's suppose that it ends up increasing by 30%, i.e. an extra 4800 murders this year, and let's say those extra murders are due to the measures we're taking to fight the pandemic.  Now imagine an an alternate universe in which we decided not to fight the pandemic.  In that universe, there are 4800 fewer murders, but there are more COVID deaths.  How many more?  Hard to say, but I bet the excess in that other universe is a lot more than 4800.  You can also add in all the extra suicides if you want, although I happen to think that a fair number of those are due to despair/anxiety over the pandemic itself and not over enforced mask-wearing and social distancing.  

 

No doubt the efforts to fight the pandemic - the mask wearing, social distancing, and intermittent stay-at-home orders - has some negative effects on public health, including all those you've pointed out: increased drug use, increased suicide attempts, increased homicide rate, and so on.  But this virus has killed 140,000+ people directly, even with those measures in place (although perhaps not as widely adopted as they ought to be).  Instead of 140,000, how many people would have died by now if we had just skipped all of those measures and carried on like we were back in January?  Concerts, movie theatres, bars, restaurants, classrooms, all packed to the gills, nobody wearing masks.  

 

Florida is currently reporting about 10,000 new cases per day.  If the whole country were that bad, the US would be seeing 150,000 new cases per day - which, at the current 3.7% fatality rate, would mean 5500 dead per day.  We'd lose two million people in a year's time.  

cases are not deaths.  

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Joe Frickin' Friday
51 minutes ago, lawnchairboy said:

cases are not deaths.  

 

Ayup.  That's why I went through and estimated how many dead we could end up with.  150,000 cases per day, 3.7% mortality rate, works out to 5500 dead per day.  X365 days = 2M.  It's not any sort of precision calculation, but it hints at the order of magnitude of the problem. 

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lawnchairboy
49 minutes ago, Joe Frickin' Friday said:

 

Ayup.  That's why I went through and estimated how many dead we could end up with.  150,000 cases per day, 3.7% mortality rate, works out to 5500 dead per day.  X365 days = 2M.  It's not any sort of precision calculation, but it hints at the order of magnitude of the problem. 

 

 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMms2009984

 

As I have said before, we will never know.  I believe more will die from the treatment than from the disease.  We will never definitively know.  There is no shortage of evidence that non-Covid deaths and incidents of healthcare avoidance & violence of different flavors along with murders are increasing. All one needs to do is open one's eyes.   I have personally cared for 1 COVID patient at my facility since the beginning.    We are once again shutting down elective but needed surgeries here.  Another non-quantifiable but significant number of casualties, IMO, will come from the shift to tele-medicine.  Primary care providers see, listen to, touch, feel, and smell their patients when they are face to face, all lost via video (save imaging which may be suboptimal.  Some things are going to be missed.  They also listen, although some telemedicine systems can adapt to this and the best ones are pretty cool in capabilities.  

 

 

 

 

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realshelby

Statistics are one thing. Reality is often another. 

 

One of my best friends lost his Wife to Covid Tuesday night. He has it too, but seems to be getting better. She did have some health issues that contributed. 58 years old. Only lasted about 4 days in the hospital. Which may be a blessing in that she wasn't in there for many weeks like some. 

 

More and more I am convinced that wearing a mask helps a LOT. Not to protect you so much, but to keep you or anyone infected from spreading the virus as easily. A little distance from others, and not congregating in groups when not necessary.....not too much burden on us I think. 

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Paul De

Sorry to hear of your friends loss,  for all this virus will no doubt take someone we know by the end of it.  My brother is a physician in Tulsa and will be 67 this year, so I worry that he will get the virus with a terrible outcome. 

 

I worry for his safety every waking moment these days.  While his specialty is in all manner of imaging and that typically limits direct patient contact, as this virus is now raging in his region and putting pressure on the health system there, he will likely be called to the front line. His group supports some small rural hospitals and is in rotation to visit these locations this week.  Yikes!  Knowing him, "not my job" isn't in his vocabulary and he will provide any type of care where he can help.  From my conversations with him he isn't saying it but I know he is scared as he reads the flood of images coming across his monitor which shows people of all ages who's lungs look like they are filled with cement. 

 

What ever mitigation strategies we as citizens can take, lets do so.  It may save someone you know.  Why mask wearing got politicized and why so many folks can't see past their selfish personal interests to wear a mask when in public is beyond me. Like Marco Rubio finally said two weeks ago as the virus overtook Florida, "Just wear a damn mask"!

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ESokoloff
2 hours ago, realshelby said:

 

More and more I am convinced that wearing a mask helps a LOT. Not to protect you so much, but to keep you or anyone infected from spreading the virus as easily

Yep.

 

Sorry for your friend’s loss.  

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ESokoloff
On 3/23/2020 at 8:12 PM, ESokoloff said:

Why/how could we have been blindsided by this?

WHO done it!!!  (Starting @ 2:05 Mark)

What now?

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Rougarou
Rougarou
On 7/10/2020 at 8:14 AM, Joe Frickin' Friday said:

 

AFAIK, droplets-in-the-eyes hasn't been identified as a major route of infection for the general public. 

 

 

Hmmmmm

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ESokoloff
2 hours ago, Rougarou said:
   On 7/10/2020 at 5:14 AM,  Joe Frickin' Friday said: 

 

AFAIK, droplets-in-the-eyes hasn't been identified as a major route of infection for the general public. 

 

Hmmmmm

Operative word being major but none the less, the eyes are a potential path that should (may) be considered.   
 

This is a Novel Virus & as such, we’re learning & changing policies as we go.  

 

 

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realshelby

I wear my clear safety glasses ( with readers built in of course....) everywhere I go with a mask on. Have no proof it keeps droplets out of my eyes. BUT...one thing I do know is that it keeps me from rubbing my hands with my germy infected fingers when wearing them!

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Paul De

I have some light sensitive sunglasses that go almost clear indoors, so they look like they might be typical corrective glasses.  My wife started making we wear those when shopping about 2 months ago...As usual, she wasn't wrong. They don't have side shields, but fit tight enough to offer a little deflection from aerosolized virus going into my eyes.  Somebody close that by chance would cough at me, it probably would not stop it from getting into my eyes, but better than nothing.

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Paul De

Interesting.  I could see how a combination of less stress while stay in place was in effect and the PPP dollars staving off economic anxiety reducing heart attacks.  Peak widow maker heart attacks occur on Monday mornings getting ready for and heading into the grind of work.   With the fed PPP dollars going away this month, and likely to only be replaced at levels that drive some level income insecurity, it might be interesting if heart attacks jump up in the next months.  Also, agree with the article that fear of hospitals full of COVID patients keeping some at home with less severe or potentially fatal issues.  I just had a weird historical thought that we have seen this behavior before. Before penicillin, hospitals were generally shunned, if possible, because people seemed to go there and die...Maybe it is the same sort of dynamic during this pandemic. The reality is that docs are getting way better at treating and have some new tools that are allowing much better survival rates from the most sever cases of COVID-19. 

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lawnchairboy
45 minutes ago, Paul De said:

Interesting.  I could see how a combination of less stress while stay in place was in effect and the PPP dollars staving off economic anxiety reducing heart attacks.  Peak widow maker heart attacks occur on Monday mornings getting ready for and heading into the grind of work.   With the fed PPP dollars going away this month, and likely to only be replaced at levels that drive some level income insecurity, it might be interesting if heart attacks jump up in the next months.  Also, agree with the article that fear of hospitals full of COVID patients keeping some at home with less severe or potentially fatal issues.  I just had a weird historical thought that we have seen this behavior before. Before penicillin, hospitals were generally shunned, if possible, because people seemed to go there and die...Maybe it is the same sort of dynamic during this pandemic. The reality is that docs are getting way better and have some new tools that are allowing much better survival rates from the most sever cases of COVID-19. 

IMHO the most important thing that came relatively early was NOT intubating these patients until it was absolutely necessary to preserve life. 

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Paul De
2 minutes ago, lawnchairboy said:

IMHO the most important thing that came relatively early was NOT intubating these patients until it was absolutely necessary to preserve life. 

Keep in mind it took time for that practice, along with keep patients on the stomachs, to cascade through the health system and be adopted.  Doc's tend to be very conservative about changing accepted treatment practices.

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lawnchairboy

Anesthesia and critical care , in one or the other for 27 years, thanks.

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lawnchairboy

Int. J. Infect. Dis., 2020

Early administration of Interleukin-6 inhibitors for patients with severe Covid-19 disease is associated with decreased intubation, reduced mortality, and increased discharge.

Sinha, P; Mostaghim, A; Bielick, CG; McLaughlin, A; Hamer, DH; Wetzler, L; Bhadelia, N; Fagan, M; Linas, BP; Assoumou, SA; Ieong, MH; Lin, NH; Cooper, ER; Brade, KD; White, LF; Barlam, TF; Sagar, M; Boston Medical Center Covid-19, Treatment Panel

OBJECTIVE: This observational study aimed to determine optimal timing of interleukin-6 receptor inhibitors (IL6ri) administration for Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19).
METHODS: Patients with Covid-19 were given an IL6ri (sarilumab or tocilizumab) based on iteratively reviewed guidelines. IL6ri were initially reserved for critically ill patients, but after review, treatment was liberalized to patients with lower oxygen requirements. Patients were divided into 2 groups: those requiring ≤ 45% fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) (termed stage IIB) and those requiring >45% FiO2 (termed stage III) at the time of IL6ri administration. Main outcomes were all-cause mortality, discharge alive from hospital, and extubation.
RESULTS: 255 Covid-19 patients were treated with IL6ri (149 stage IIB and 106 stage III). Patients treated in stage IIB had lower mortality than the stage III group (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.24; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.08-0.74). Overall, 218 (85.5%) patients were discharged alive. Patients treated in stage IIB were more likely to be discharged (aHR: 1.43; 95% CI 1.06 - 1.93) and were less likely to be intubated (HR: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.24-0.79).
CONCLUSIONS: IL6ri administration prior to greater than 45% FiO2 requirement was associated with improved Covid-19 outcomes. This can guide clinical management pending results from randomized control trials.
Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

PMID: 32721528

URL  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32721528
 

most interesting thing I have read recently.

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Bud

My observations from 2 ER visits during the Covid pandemic. 

 

Wednesday I put my right thumb in the table saw blade. Partial amputation. Cut thru both top and bottom from the tip to the bottom of the nail in a semi-vertical direction. Inside part of thumb was held on only by a small flap of skin.

 

Went to local rural hospital ER room. Screened before entry with temp taken and Covid screening questions asked: cough, tiredness, out of area travel, recent flights, possible Covid exposure.  Received one oxy tablet, 3 x-rays, cleaned and dressed wound. This took 2 hours even though I was the only patient in the ER the whole time I was there. Discharged and my son drove me to Barnes Hospital ER in St. Louis as they have hand surgeons in the ER 24/7.

 

Waited 2 hours in Barnes ER waiting room. They wouldn't let in anyone but patients. Socially distancing, masks required. Didn't hear anyone coughing. Had to go thru metal detector to enter. No temp check which surprised me. During check in,  I was not asked if I had a fever or had any exposure to anyone with Covid. I found that strange.

 

After 2 hours I was called back to an ER room. Again, I was  not asked if I had been exposed to Covid or if I had any of the possible symptoms. More x-rays, even though I brought a CD with me. It took 4 more hours before my wound was treated. Thumb repair was completed bedside in ER room. Lidocaine injections and morphine via IV. There seemed to be no sense of urgency of any of the staff in treating any of the patients. Granted I saw no one presenting life threatening symptoms and not a single ambulance arrived the whole 6 hours I was there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

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Twisties
16 hours ago, lawnchairboy said:

Int. J. Infect. Dis., 2020

Early administration of Interleukin-6 inhibitors for patients with severe Covid-19 disease is associated with decreased intubation, reduced mortality, and increased discharge.

Sinha, P; Mostaghim, A; Bielick, CG; McLaughlin, A; Hamer, DH; Wetzler, L; Bhadelia, N; Fagan, M; Linas, BP; Assoumou, SA; Ieong, MH; Lin, NH; Cooper, ER; Brade, KD; White, LF; Barlam, TF; Sagar, M; Boston Medical Center Covid-19, Treatment Panel

OBJECTIVE: This observational study aimed to determine optimal timing of interleukin-6 receptor inhibitors (IL6ri) administration for Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19).
METHODS: Patients with Covid-19 were given an IL6ri (sarilumab or tocilizumab) based on iteratively reviewed guidelines. IL6ri were initially reserved for critically ill patients, but after review, treatment was liberalized to patients with lower oxygen requirements. Patients were divided into 2 groups: those requiring ≤ 45% fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) (termed stage IIB) and those requiring >45% FiO2 (termed stage III) at the time of IL6ri administration. Main outcomes were all-cause mortality, discharge alive from hospital, and extubation.
RESULTS: 255 Covid-19 patients were treated with IL6ri (149 stage IIB and 106 stage III). Patients treated in stage IIB had lower mortality than the stage III group (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.24; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.08-0.74). Overall, 218 (85.5%) patients were discharged alive. Patients treated in stage IIB were more likely to be discharged (aHR: 1.43; 95% CI 1.06 - 1.93) and were less likely to be intubated (HR: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.24-0.79).
CONCLUSIONS: IL6ri administration prior to greater than 45% FiO2 requirement was associated with improved Covid-19 outcomes. This can guide clinical management pending results from randomized control trials.
Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

PMID: 32721528

URL  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32721528
 

most interesting thing I have read recently.

 

Interesting, but no control groups.  Promising and worth further study, but you really can't reach any conclusions from this.

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lawnchairboy

Yes...  why it was described as interesting.  I have conducted human subjects research.  I get it.  

 

It makes logical sense to me particularly in regard to cytokine considerations that the described therapy may have a potential role. 

 

 

At least maybe maybe better than drinking Clorox anyway. 

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Selden
On 8/7/2020 at 4:38 PM, lawnchairboy said:

most interesting thing I have read recently.

 

Not a refereed journal, but this was an interesting read this afternoon: Forty percent of people with coronavirus infections have no symptoms. Might they be the key to ending the pandemic?

 

The part that jumped out at me was on viral dose. Aside from isolating myself, part of what I have been doing to cope is to spread out my contacts with other people; I set an exposure "quota" for myself each week. So far, so good, but I try not to push my luck.

 

Quote

The scientific literature on viral dose goes back to around 1938 when scientists began to find evidence that being exposed to one copy of a virus is more easily overcome than being exposed to a billion copies. Researchers refer to the infectious dose as ID50 — or the dose at which 50 percent of the population would become infected.

 

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Joe Frickin' Friday
8 hours ago, lawnchairboy said:

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

 

"But the size of the response in most of the world (not including Sweden) has been totally disproportionate to the size of the threat."

 

He indicated 6000 COVID deaths in a country of 10M, with the rate now at about 5 new deaths per day.  

 

Scale it up to the US (population 33X as large), and we're talking about 198,000 deaths with a rate of 165 new deaths per day. 

 

Currently, we're at about 165,000 dead, with about 1000 new deaths per day.  

 

If he's right, we should see the US COVID death rate start rolling downward very soon.  

 

:lurk:

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Twisties

It's a pov, but there are a lot of problems with it.  One, is the focus on mortality as the only metric.  We tend to do that here, too, but it is very limited way to view the damage when we know people are being left with ongoing disabilities, and huge financial wreckage.

 

Another, being that at least for me, no, losing ten times the number we lose annually to influenza is not ok.  That would be something like 400,000-600,000 in the US.   Another is that he ignores a few things:  Sweden didn't mandate as much as we did in some areas, but it did not completely eschew social distancing.  Older students were kept out of school, and others were urged to distance... many did.  It's not a pure experiment.  Then, as well, their economy did in fact suffer... some say their liberal policies gained them nothing economically. 

 

When you consider their per capita death rate, it is like ten times that of their neighboring Scandanavian countries.  Many in Sweden view the policy as a failure and there are ongoing investigations.  

 

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Joe Frickin' Friday
1 hour ago, Twisties said:

there are a lot of problems with it.

 

One big problem is that key US public health officials are very worried about what's going to happen here this fall and winter.  They don't seem to share his optimism about the death rate fading away as he suggests. 

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Twisties
1 hour ago, Joe Frickin' Friday said:

 

One big problem is that key US public health officials are very worried about what's going to happen here this fall and winter.  They don't seem to share his optimism about the death rate fading away as he suggests. 


The projections are most worrisome, at least to me.  I think we need two months of national lockdown.  Real lockdown this time, not the mamby pansy thing some of us did last time.  Then we can manage outbreaks afterwards until there are better treatments or vaccine.  

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Hosstage

What would be considered a proper national lockdown? All manufacturing? All food processing? All shipping? Who gets to pick which industries survive, which face failure? I'm just trying to envision what a true lockdown would mean. The government (remember, that is you and me) only has so much money to pay for everyone's mortgage. The government is going to pay our mortgage if it forces a lockdown, correct? It is going to feed us, but how?

What does a full national lockdown look like?

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Rougarou
24 minutes ago, Hosstage said:

 

What does a full national lockdown look like?

 

Sweden:18:

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Selden

U.S.A. ranks 9th highest in the world for cases/million; Sweden 22nd.

U.S.A. ranks 10th highest in the world for cases/million; Sweden 8th.

 

Sweden saw its economy shrink 8.6% April-to-June; the EU saw a contraction of 11.9% for the same period.

 

We're no longer #1 in new cases (although still far ahead of #2 Brazil in deaths).

 

1017079664_Screenshot2020-08-11at10_25_44AM.png.4bc4e8c671c5531c3d15a78f3e70e005.png

 

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Rougarou

Say what!!!!!

 

Quote

Also, wear your mask, even if you are home, to participate in a virtual meeting that involves being seen — such as on Zoom or another video-conferencing platform

 

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Paul De
34 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Oh man, for a second I was worried what credible source would say that. Then I clicked the link and saw it was the DNR of my state.   Disregard that anyone here in this state gives credence to that kind of crazy.

 

I don't want to hijack this thread but to give a little context I recently had to deal with the WI DNR to get a permit to do a rip rap erosion control project on our place in the Northwoods.   Suffice it to say I went through many head shaking meetings and had to jump through inane hoops to get that permit approved.  Sadly, that was only topped by the Army Core of Engineers with their crazy demands who also stuck their nose into my project because of the scope. Can you tell the experience left me a little bitter?

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Rougarou

So, two weeks ago, mother in law, starting going downhill fairly fast.  She had dementia and over the years, it was getting worse, but the recent downtrend unsettled the wife's family.  She was taken to the ER and would you know it, they tested her and she popped positive for COVID.  So, the hospital sends her home and the sisters in law and local cousins take care of her, along with a visiting nurse.  Mind you, these folks are not practicing the distancing thing and if they did wear masks, it was below the nose line (from the videos I saw).  Anyway, they additionally test the father in law,....yep, he popped positive.  Now, this was two weeks ago.  MIL died on 10 August, nothing on the death cert said COVID, it was dementia with kidney failure.  The in laws house is a revolving door of people, family, friends, whoever know that their door is always unlocked and people come and go as they please to visit........likely impossible to conduct a tracing route with those coonasses.

 

The wife went to Louisiana on 10 August, along with one of my daughters, attended viewing, funeral, gatherings.  The sisters and cousins that were dealing with the MIL have tested negative, wife and daughter may or may not get tested.  FIL is showing no issues associated with COVID, he's in the low 80's.  So far, none in the wife's family are showing any issues.

 

Bad testing, false positives, I dunno.  At least she didn't die alone.

 

 

 

 

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Rougarou

Don't flush that urinal

 

Quote

In summary, enlightened and invited by Editor Alan Jeffrey Giacomin, a virus-laden particle movement with urinal flushing is simulated in this Letter. Similar to toilet flushing, alarming results are discovered: (1) more than 57% of the particles have traveled away from the urinal; (2) constant diffusion tendency is uncovered due to relatively considerable diffusion velocity; (3) only in 5.5 s, the highest position of 0.84 m is reached, where the climbing speed is significantly higher than in the toilet-induced diffusion. According to this Letter and our previous contribution,7 wearing masks when in public washrooms should be mandatorily implemented.

 

What is the velocity of a urine particle?

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Selden
On 8/18/2020 at 7:53 AM, Rougarou said:

So, two weeks ago, mother in law, starting going downhill fairly fast.  She had dementia and over the years,

 

I can sympathize with this, as my mother will be turning 99 on September 4. With grave reservations, I'm planning to ride from Georgia to Delaware in the second half of September, and see if I can set up a legal guardianship. I estimate that she has squandered $1 million over the past decade, in part because she is a compulsive hoarder. It's not going to be fun.

 

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I am fortunate in that neither my father (who died in 1987) nor my mother had any siblings, I have no siblings, and we have only 1 child, who lives a few blocks from my mother's place. Between the pandemic and potentially dealing with the legal system, I am not looking forward to this trip. I hope I won't have to spend the entire winter in Delaware, but it's a possibility.

 

Related to the COVID-19 Surprise, I'm planning to get tested before I leave, and as soon as possible after I arrive.

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BrianM
4 hours ago, Rougarou said:

Don't flush that urinal

 

 

What is the velocity of a urine particle?

 

d = v0*t + 1/2*a*t^2

 

d=.84m, t=5.5s, a =-9.8m/s^2. Solve for v0, the initial velocity of the particle. This would be the slowest velocity, since drag is not being considered.

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