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ESokoloff

COVID-19 Surprise?

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ESokoloff

I avoid the media but had heard of this issue soon after it developed but I must say I’m SHOCKED with were we are today!!

Last week I was thinking that the shutdown of the country was too aggressive. 
Soon after that thought turned to too little too late.
 

Why/how could we have been blindsided by this?

 

Im sure there were those in the know screaming at us (policy makers) to do something but why were they ignored? 

 

What did I miss?

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realshelby

When you have a President saying the Chinese Virus problem is a hoax, it is hard to mobilize a serious response. We were late on jumping on this. That is easy to say now, looking back, and I get that. But travel restrictions for those coming into the country would have made a big difference. Serious advertising about self quarantine and why it is important was weeks late. Testing panic was just that. If you think you have symptoms, you should quarantine. Our arrogance hasn't helped either. Too many think it cannot happen to us. 

 

We'll learn from it. But the scars will be here for a while......

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Selden

Last week I heard about a group that had been on a Colorado River rafting expedition for something like 3 weeks, cut off from all communication with the outside world. When they came out, they found a world completely changed from when they went in. This thread could quickly devolve into a political discussion, so I'm not going to go there. I will only say that people who have been paying attention to this are not surprised.

 

The single best data source I have found is the JHU COVID-19 Dashboard https://tinyurl.com/uwns6z5 , which is updated far more frequently than the CDC site: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/.

 

Cases worldwide are likely to pass 400,000 today, and within a week or less, the USA will probably pass Italy. The U.S. numbers don't necessarily indicate a geometric increase, but rather reflect an inexcusable lack of testing. Due to limited testing, I'm guessing that the actual number of cases in the USA today is 5X-10X the 46,450 listed as of 0848 EDT.

 

About three weeks ago I started working on a spreadsheet for the over 60 population, modeling potential outcomes from a 1% infection rate with 3% mortality (~25,000 fatalities), up to 40% infection rate with 10% mortality (more than 3.3 million). Italy's experience suggests that even my high end estimate may be conservative.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FoMXJXWyxqfWYaqGjKRoK6hviysi5MumnFUwj8E43co/edit?usp=sharing 

 

Last night Georgia's governor announced this recommendation for the "medically fragile":

 

Quote

At minimum, this order for isolation, quarantine, or shelter in place covers those who live in a long-term care facility, have chronic lung disease, are undergoing cancer treatment, have a positive COVID-19 test, are suspected to have COVID-19 because of their symptoms and exposure, or have been exposed to someone who has COVID-19.

 

With 70+ years of chronic lung disease, this definition includes me. From here on, we will probably limit ourselves to trips for groceries at Walmart. A month ago I refilled every Rx I could, and I have a 90-150 day supply on hand. All my prescriptions are delivered by mail order, so I don't need to visit a pharmacy.

 

My wife and I have gradually been cutting back contacts with the outside world, after a last binge of eating out March 13-16, 20, and 21. When the first COVId-19 case was reported in Lumpkin County, GA on March 22, we stopped eating out entirely. I had the car serviced last Wednesday, and the cat has a checkup tomorrow. Veterinary staff will come out to pick her up and take her inside to be examined, while we wait in the car.

 

I intend to keep riding (cautiously, as I don't want to visit an ER), an activity that requires zero contact with other human beings, other than putting a gloved hand on a gas pump. I hope to be a survivor, but nothing is guaranteed. About 2 weeks into a ride to Alaska in 2006, I told myself that I could die tomorrow without regrets. In 2020 I still feel the same way. 

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Antimatter

The White House fired the pandemic response team in 2018 and never replaced them.  They also made significant cuts to the CDC, although Congress restored the funding.  Overall, this administration has made it a priority to fire or demote anyone who does not toe their line with regards to issues like climate change and pollution standards.  We've lost a ton of competent scientists and other government personnel as a result of Trump's hatred of the 'deep state' - i.e. people who don't agree with everything he says. 

I think also that China's downplaying of the initial crisis didn't help, but our problems with our initial testing procedures and the lack of people in this administration added to our problems.  FWIW, folks who study pandemics have said we were way overdue for this sort of crisis.  The confluence of other factors (China coverup, US gutting of experts, de-emphasis of co-operation between former allies) made it all worse.

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Rougarou

Interesting  The U. S. is the "most prepared" country for prevention, early detection and rapid response, as of this report from October 2019 of an international group of Drs and JHU.  This report was filed a year after the supposed firing of pandemic response.......hmmmm. 

 

 

image.png.d58297c87bd7f6d5b8e70db26c8fbfc5.png

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chrisolson
33 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Interesting  The U. S. is the "most prepared" country for prevention, early detection and rapid response, as of this report from October 2019 of an international group of Drs and JHU.  This report was filed a year after the supposed firing of pandemic response.......hmmmm. 

 

 

image.png.d58297c87bd7f6d5b8e70db26c8fbfc5.png

 

What made our average first is that we scored very hit in Detect, Respond and Norms.

 

2105713518_ScreenShot2020-03-24at8_32_50AM.thumb.png.75932be798b317b155b7180a0de68163.png

 

When looking at their criteria it would seem that they both over and underestimated reality in 2020 and a new coronavirus

 

100% in emergency preparedness and response planning ??? 100% in Risk communication ??

1958220182_ScreenShot2020-03-24at8_43_56AM.thumb.png.65ad42405b0568253e11f4e7cb6c168e.png

 

100% in laboratory systems and epidemiology workforce ???

1790215583_ScreenShot2020-03-24at8_43_47AM.thumb.png.7b1ac5de978ac44928f590fd7fc2b4a8.png

 

100% in reporting compliance , cross-border agreements (ok Canada and Mexico) , international commitments (we've offered to help North Korea !!)

another 100% in commitment to sharing of genetic and biological data (maybe, don't know and federal envolvement there ) ??

968796446_ScreenShot2020-03-24at8_44_15AM.thumb.png.b83fa9a44c49c441e6665407f3bf3102.png

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Rougarou

I'm just passing the info, these are the brains at JHU, which some rely on along with brains across the globe.

 

Maybe, since we're all experts now at Emergency Management and Biological Containment, we can stand in front of the cameras and say 'zactly how to do this thing.

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chrisolson
3 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Maybe, since we're all experts now at Emergency Management and Biological Containment

never claimed to be ... but there are some realities  upon which even a layman can have an opinion. 

 

 

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Rougarou
2 minutes ago, chrisolson said:

never claimed to be ... but there are some realities  upon which even a layman can have an opinion. 

 

 

 

It's humor, not personal , I shoulda put a smiley or two.  A few months ago, we're all constitutional lawyers, then virologist and immunologist, now emergency management and containment.

 

Yes, the opinion, and after action reports always allow for the "should've/could've done it this way, vice that way" opinions.  It's always easy to look at an event after it has happened and question "why wasn't x, y, and z" done.

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mickeym3
1 hour ago, Rougarou said:

 

It's humor, not personal , I shoulda put a smiley or two.  A few months ago, we're all constitutional lawyers, then virologist and immunologist, now emergency management and containment.

 

Yes, the opinion, and after action reports always allow for the "should've/could've done it this way, vice that way" opinions.  It's always easy to look at an event after it has happened and question "why wasn't x, y, and z" done.


Can hardly wait for the Ken Burns documentary on mid-2019 to mid-2020. But on second thought, probably don’t want to go through it again.  In thirty years the historians will certainly have plenty to write about. For some time I’ve been saying that our nation’s downward trajectory could only be changed by a major war, a natural disaster or a religious revival.  Should have known the latter was the least likely but who knows, God is full of surprises. 

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chrisolson
1 hour ago, Rougarou said:

Yes, the opinion, and after action reports always allow for the "should've/could've done it this way, vice that way" opinions.  It's always easy to look at an event after it has happened and question "why wasn't x, y, and z" done.

 

absolutely ...  but I'm sure most would agree  that analysis of actual performance vs claims, plans, or expectations is vital to both the military as well as science.  Its the acceptance ... or not ... of the analysis that is the issue.

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mickeym3

Afraid I’m a bit jaded about charts, a product of way too many years seeing Program Planning, Marketing and Industrial Engineering charts.

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Antimatter
22 hours ago, Rougarou said:

Interesting  The U. S. is the "most prepared" country for prevention, early detection and rapid response, as of this report from October 2019 of an international group of Drs and JHU.  This report was filed a year after the supposed firing of pandemic response.......hmmmm. 

 

 

image.png.d58297c87bd7f6d5b8e70db26c8fbfc5.png

 

Well, if you read the report, you'll find we're at the top of a bunch of countries with pretty lousy response systems.  Meaning, in the race of broken down cars, we have the fastest jalopy. 

The thing I find most ironic about all this is that our President, who's a known germaphobe and owner of multiple golf clubs, would say that it was no big deal and would disappear without us doing anything.  I know he's losing a lot of cash while the shutdowns are going on, and this is why he's so eager to get things going again.

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