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TEWKS

Covert -19

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TEWKS

Covert -19 :classic_ninja:

 

Or in other words, could COVID-19 be a biological attack on the world’s population? 
 

Now, I don’t believe this to be a reality but it sure is an interesting thought.
 

I doubt any civilized people would set this virus loose on the world and looking through rose colored glasses, I don’t believe a government would sacrifice many of its own to strike at another nation. History would probably prove that untrue. :read:

 

There are evil ideologies out there that would unleash this without hesitation. Terrorists still willing to wreak havoc on the world for whatever endgame they wish to achieve.

 

Again not a conspiracy theorist here, just something to talk about, if you’d like.

 

Last thought, if this was an attack, what would an appropriate response look like? :dontknow:

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Rougarou

Image result for tin foil hat

 

Of course it could have been an attack.  Scenarios have been thrown around of a biological attack 4-ever, otherwise, we wouldn't have "CBIRF", which is Chemical, Biological Incident Response Force on the Marine Corps side, other branches have similar and the gummyment has its own I'd bet.

 

Anyway, a biologic is something that would be hard to contain (as seen).  So, if it were to be a weapon by a bad actor nation, I'd hope, the bad actor nation had a cure/vaccine/preventative for its own people, but alas, the Chinese Virus/Wuhan Virus/COVID-19 (corona virus disease 2019) is killing Chinese as well as the rest of the world.  So that leads my uneducated mind to believe that this was nothing more than a rouge animal to human transmission of a virus that has replicated itself into a couple of strains that are passed human to human via our moisture transmit orifices.

 

Well, for me, the appropriate response would be decimation of the offender, but since we (United States), as a country, follow the Geneva Convention's rules......which means alot of hand tying.

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BobW03

To give you a bit more of a scientific answer, it is very doubtful this was something created in a lab.

 

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

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TEWKS
22 hours ago, BobW03 said:

To give you a bit more of a scientific answer, it is very doubtful this was something created in a lab.

 

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..

H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

 

Bob, that was an absolute great reply, thank you! :thumbsup:

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BobW03

Very Welcome, helps to have med tech wife as long as she does not get sick.:4315:

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EvilTwin
On 3/20/2020 at 5:32 PM, TEWKS said:

Covert -19 :classic_ninja:

 

Or in other words, could COVID-19 be a biological attack on the world’s population? 
 

Now, I don’t believe this to be a reality but it sure is an interesting thought.
 

I doubt any civilized people would set this virus loose on the world and looking through rose colored glasses, I don’t believe a government would sacrifice many of its own to strike at another nation. History would probably prove that untrue. :read:

 

There are evil ideologies out there that would unleash this without hesitation. Terrorists still willing to wreak havoc on the world for whatever endgame they wish to achieve.

 

Again not a conspiracy theorist here, just something to talk about, if you’d like.

 

Last thought, if this was an attack, what would an appropriate response look like? :dontknow:

 

There is enough disinformation floating out there right now about this disease and how it came about, including speculation that this is some sort of bioweapon unleashed by some nefarious government.  I had to talk one woman out of the notion two weeks ago, when she showed me a facebook post.   Do we really need to start our own thread when there is already enough fear and uncertainty in the general population floating around the interwebs?   

 

 

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TEWKS
1 minute ago, EvilTwin said:

 

There is enough disinformation floating out there right now about this disease and how it came about, including speculation that this is some sort of bioweapon unleashed by some nefarious government.  I had to talk one woman out of the notion two weeks ago, when she showed me a facebook post.   Do we really need to start our own thread when there is already enough fear and uncertainty in the general population floating around the interwebs?   

 

 

Like mentioned in another thread, you can block the channel if you don't like the content. I think I made it clear it was meant as a conversation piece.  :dontknow: And not only that, Bob's post was very educational IMO. :thumbsup: 

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Red

1995 Bill laid out some specific actions that could have better prepared the US and the world.  Now we're living it.

 

 

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TEWKS

Looks like nobody listened in class. :dontknow: :(

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Corazon de Pollo

I'll post this here because it's very pertinent.

 

I live in Northern Italy, Covid-19 Central. Differently from all the fearmongering video out there I ask you people one thing: do not strangle your country to death because of this virus.

We have been in partial but serious lockdown for a month now and total lockdown for over two weeks now. People have been behaving very well but they are starting to be tired: they want to know when we will start to rebuild. New cases and deaths have started to drop over the weekend so it's time for the government to answer this question, not to threaten more lockdowns. I hope cooler heads will prevail this week already because we are really gasping for air here: a guy I know likened the situation to "felling down the whole forest to try and save the oldest trees". As cynical as he is, he has a very strong point.

Just as critically we need to find out why Covid-19 is so much more lethal here than elsewhere and, just as critically, why it's affecting older people so much that Covid-19 patients under 50 become instant celebrities. The average age of the deceased in my province is 81... healthcare authorities have admitted this is very strange but it may take years to get an answer.

Let's hope it doesn't take years to lift this lockdown...

 

 

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chrisolson
4 hours ago, Corazon de Pollo said:

New cases and deaths have started to drop over the weekend

 

Yes, that's important news .  It will most likely be a while in the US before we  hear something similar ...

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Corazon de Pollo
2 hours ago, chrisolson said:

 

Yes, that's important news .  It will most likely be a while in the US before we  hear something similar ...

 

From our experience this is an extremely weird epidemic. Some provinces like mine are very heavily affected while others a mere 70-80 miles away are barely touched. Same rules, same healthcare system, same everything. Nobody has a clue on why this is happening, just as we haven't got a clue why here it seems to overwhelmingly affect the elderly. A mutation has already been ruled out so it must be something else.

 

Anyway it seems the positive trend is continuing as the contagion is still slowing down, but I haven't got the whole data set yet so I fear the North is doing better while the rest of the country... not much so. I am sorry to say this but if this means lessening the lockdown I am all for it. You have no idea what a real lockdown means: if I am reading correctly in many US States hardware stores are still open and delivery services are still more or less working. Here basically everything is closed and delivery services have long collapsed.

The good thing is I cut down so many trees i won't be needing firewood for a looong time...

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Skywagon

Thanks Corazon....all the best.  Stay well.  As you probably know the USA is watching Italy pretty closely as most suspect what happen there will happen here.  We still have what they call essential business open for almost all of the country with the exception of New York, California, and I believe Washington State.  I live in Houston area which is the 4th largest city in the US.  The closures here are in room dining at restaurants - they can sell to go, schools, colleges, sporting events and other public gatherings.  You can still go to the grocery store and many other things although the city is encouraging people to stay home. Many of the grocery stores will deliver or you can do curbside pickup.  The wait time for delivery and curbside varies but roughly 1 week from time of order. The shelves are pretty bare due to selfish hoarding, but there is no real shortage in the supply chain.    In our population here of just under 5 million we have 325 cases and 8 deaths so far.  

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Corazon de Pollo

Yeah, if you want to see how not to do things keep an eye on us. :rofl:

 

I am all for a lockdown if it helps to save people but we need to be pragmatic as well. The longer businesses stay completely closed, the fewer will reopen... if they are ever allowed to do so. And then how is people going to be able to feed themselves and pay taxes to pay for healthcare? Or are we keep on recieving alms from China and Russia?

The government has done very little to reduce the big problems resulting from the lockdown: I am not talking about "bailouts" (more on which in a minute) but write emergency legislation to deal with stuff such as company car leases, local taxes, unemployment benefits... our leadership clearly panicked and is still panicking at a time when we need them the most, especially to come up with a normalization roadmap. Say what you want about China (both Red and Nationalist) and Japan (and God knows if I do) but their leaders acted as such.

 

Don't think bailouts will fix this stuff: to spend my stimulus money I need to be allowed to buy goods and services and what can I buy? Groceries? I already have those. Drugs (of the legal kind)? Same thing. Sure, I can order stuff on the internet but will it ever get here? And it's exactly the same thing if you run a business: you cannot spend a dime until the economy is allowed to start breathing again.

 

I confess I have started having troubles sleeping. I am not scared of the virus: I have done my bit to keep it from spreading so I have a clean coscience. But the idea of still being in a lockdown a month or more from now is simply terrifying. I have savings but I have decided to shut my business down later this week. No point keeping open even we are allowed to do so. If I am not seeing any sign of improvement over a week or two I'll start pondering shutting down for good. I'd happily consider emigration but at this rate I'll die of old age with a lockdown still in place...

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MikeRC
7 hours ago, Corazon de Pollo said:

I'll post this here because it's very pertinent.

 

I live in Northern Italy, Covid-19 Central. Differently from all the fearmongering video out there I ask you people one thing: do not strangle your country to death because of this virus.

We have been in partial but serious lockdown for a month now and total lockdown for over two weeks now. People have been behaving very well but they are starting to be tired: they want to know when we will start to rebuild. New cases and deaths have started to drop over the weekend so it's time for the government to answer this question, not to threaten more lockdowns. I hope cooler heads will prevail this week already because we are really gasping for air here: a guy I know likened the situation to "felling down the whole forest to try and save the oldest trees". As cynical as he is, he has a very strong point.

Just as critically we need to find out why Covid-19 is so much more lethal here than elsewhere and, just as critically, why it's affecting older people so much that Covid-19 patients under 50 become instant celebrities. The average age of the deceased in my province is 81... healthcare authorities have admitted this is very strange but it may take years to get an answer.

Let's hope it doesn't take years to lift this lockdown...

 

 

 

While everything you say has some truth to it, I think you must also exercise some caution.   

 

I just wish people would stop perpetuating the myth that this is "an old person's disease".  Because it isn't.  

 

Even in Italy (population 60.5 million) each individual is very unlikely to know more than one or two people who have the clinical disease (today's count 63,927).  So only 1 in 1,000 Italians has had or currently has COVID-19.  And yet the health system can't manage the current disease load.   Today (or yesterday's) numbers released by your government show 20,692 currently hospitalized and about 25% (5,000) are age 50 or under.  Those in Intensive Care number 3,204.  The age breakdown of the ICU patients isn't available, but because you now have more than one patient per ICU bed in the highest infection areas it is safe to assume that only the patients with the best chance of surviving (i.e. youngest) are in those beds.   Those numbers would be very similar to the Wuhan, China numbers at the height of disease there.  

 

Yes, we have to figure this isolation, quarantine and social distancing thing out while maintaining essential social services and supply production and distribution.   

 

But in Italy, if the disease rate even went up to 1 in 100 over the next 4 weeks you would need some 100,000 hospital beds to care for the sick, and 25% of those would still be under 50 years of age.  That is over half of all the hospital beds you have in the country.  And those beds already run at 80% occupancy.  And you wouldn't have enough health care workers still at work to care for them.   

 

We do have to act decisively to suppress this first wave.  And then keep it suppressed by vigilant monitoring, isolation of the ill and their contacts and continued  public health efforts to slow the spread of flare-ups.  At least until more effective treatment and preventative measures become available.  But those are months to years away, so the best we have right now is hygiene, isolation and distancing.
 

Mike C

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Corazon de Pollo

You can lecture me all you want but you have no idea what it means doing somersaults to avoid the tiniest contact with other people, such as looking for a supermarket with an automated checkout, wearing a half mask every time you speak with somebody, steering well clear of the few souls walking on the streets, praying you don't need a doctor... and seeing all your efforts are in vain.

Yes, the country as a whole is perhaps starting to see a glimmer of hope and some previously heavily affected areas have gone to zero new cases, but here it's a disaster, and I can assure you if there are quarantine breakers they are damn good at hiding themselves. What have we been doing wrong? Tell me, because it seems nothing we do is making the tiniest bit of difference.

 

Perhaps it's just a matter of holding out a bit longer but honestly I have lost all hope and I don't know what to do any more.

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Rougarou
26 minutes ago, Corazon de Pollo said:

You can lecture me all you want but you have no idea what it means doing somersaults to avoid the tiniest contact with other people, such as looking for a supermarket with an automated checkout, wearing a half mask every time you speak with somebody, steering well clear of the few souls walking on the streets, praying you don't need a doctor... and seeing all your efforts are in vain.

Yes, the country as a whole is perhaps starting to see a glimmer of hope and some previously heavily affected areas have gone to zero new cases, but here it's a disaster, and I can assure you if there are quarantine breakers they are damn good at hiding themselves. What have we been doing wrong? Tell me, because it seems nothing we do is making the tiniest bit of difference.

 

Perhaps it's just a matter of holding out a bit longer but honestly I have lost all hope and I don't know what to do any more.

 

 

No worries, just a few months ago we were all constitutional lawyers, now we're all immunologists and virologists.

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MikeRC
7 minutes ago, Corazon de Pollo said:

You can lecture me all you want but you have no idea what it means doing somersaults to avoid the tiniest contact with other people, such as looking for a supermarket with an automated checkout, wearing a half mask every time you speak with somebody, steering well clear of the few souls walking on the streets, praying you don't need a doctor... and seeing all your efforts are in vain.

Yes, the country as a whole is perhaps starting to see a glimmer of hope and some previously heavily affected areas have gone to zero new cases, but here it's a disaster, and I can assure you if there are quarantine breakers they are damn good at hiding themselves. What have we been doing wrong? Tell me, because it seems nothing we do is making the tiniest bit of difference.

 

Perhaps it's just a matter of holding out a bit longer but honestly I have lost all hope and I don't know what to do any more.

 

My sincere apologies if you found my reply to be condescending or insulting.  I (of course) have only the slightest idea of what you are going through hourly, daily and weekly.  My manner and answers are "clinical" because I am a physician with considerable experience with death and disease.   You have been doing nothing "wrong" during the isolation phase in your country, it is just the process of the disease working through it's chances to reproduce.  As you have pointed out, the peak should occur soon and then begin to taper. 

 

But, I do think there is considerable hope.  If the Chinese could wrestle this plague into submission, so can we all.  Although life will not be "the same" for a very long time, we will be out in the sun again.  And your friends and neighbors will be there with you.  

 

 There are many messages of hope and recovery on YouTube and social media that I personally find uplifting.  I hope you have friends and family who can also offer support.  

 

Mike C 

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Corazon de Pollo

Thanks people, no offense meant and no offense taken.

 

But there's zero hope of getting out of this. We have had very good numbers for the last few days and it seemed like we were finally seeing the end of it but it seems today everything was undone. A veritable disaster. How did this happen?

People are doing things by the book: they stay home, only get out to buy groceries, to the point the police has to go out of their way to show they are patrolling the streets to enforce the lockdown... and it's not working. What have we been doing wrong?

 

Sorry but if the virus doesn't get us it will be the lockdown. This time is really over.

 

 

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Skywagon

Corazon...our hearts go out to you and Italy.  You said today it was undone.  Would you mind expanding a bit on that and any speculation on why that might be happening.  Thanks....all the best.

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Marty Hill

I love Italia.  Have been there 4 times on my bike and twice by auto.  I pray for you and the country.

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Corazon de Pollo
2 hours ago, Skywagon said:

Corazon...our hearts go out to you and Italy.  You said today it was undone.  Would you mind expanding a bit on that and any speculation on why that might be happening.  Thanks....all the best.

 

We've had four straight days of nationwide decline in new cases before today, which were literally undone by the big surge in new cases today. Nobody has a clue on why this is happening but it was the proverbial kick in the gut: even our usually talkative politicians were in a somber mood today. The country has been behaving splendidly but news like these are not exactly good for the morale: everybody is asking "what have we done wrong?". We also knows what this means: more idiotic measures by the government. Perhaps they'll brick us all in or mail us all a mandatory cyanide capsule...

I can assure you this: people are really staying home and when they do get out to buy groceries everybody is wearing face masks and gloves (despite them being in very short supply) and keeping a lot of room (say at least 8-9ft) between each other.

The only good news today was a massive surge in people discharged from hospitals as "fully healed".

 

I don't know what China did to beat this virus but they had better tell us soon because hope has run out for good.

 

 

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TEWKS
57 minutes ago, Corazon de Pollo said:

I don't know what China did to beat this virus but they had better tell us soon because hope has run out for good.

 

 


Since It was brought up in this thread...Maybe a cure or maybe an antidote. ;) :dontknow:
 

I’m sorry to hear that your Country is suffering so much with this. I hope better days are around the corner for you, and the rest of the world! :( It’s getting close to home...

 

The ghost gun...

 

B3DCB945-B5FF-4949-9B28-80B46776D6B4.jpeg

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chrisolson

$700 ... out of stock, of course :4317:

 

LINKY

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MikeRC
4 hours ago, Corazon de Pollo said:

 

We've had four straight days of nationwide decline in new cases before today, which were literally undone by the big surge in new cases today. Nobody has a clue on why this is happening but it was the proverbial kick in the gut: even our usually talkative politicians were in a somber mood today. The country has been behaving splendidly but news like these are not exactly good for the morale: everybody is asking "what have we done wrong?". We also knows what this means: more idiotic measures by the government. Perhaps they'll brick us all in or mail us all a mandatory cyanide capsule...

I can assure you this: people are really staying home and when they do get out to buy groceries everybody is wearing face masks and gloves (despite them being in very short supply) and keeping a lot of room (say at least 8-9ft) between each other.

The only good news today was a massive surge in people discharged from hospitals as "fully healed".

 

I don't know what China did to beat this virus but they had better tell us soon because hope has run out for good.

 

 

 

Italy has turned a corner, your numbers of new cases peaked March 20-23.  Deaths will always follow peak cases, possibly by 7-10 days.   So deaths may not peak until March 30-April 3.    

 

Any individual daily spike in "reported cases" is usually on the basis of tests which have & have not been run, and that could explain why today's "new cases" number was over 6,000 again.   Or it could be because of an increase in cases in a province which instituted distancing and isolation measures later than the north.  I can't find the numbers broken down by province.  

 

China instituted a much more severe "lockdown" than any European or Western country could at an earlier stage of the epidemic.  That was possible in an authoritarian regime with a guarantee of financial and social service support (even though that support may have been at a purely subsistence level).   

 

Mike C

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Bud

I've quit watching the daily Trump rally in the guise of a press briefing. Unfortunately our President spreads miss-information that his true believers take as truth. It then takes scientist and other trained professionals to walk back what he said.

 

This is a good summary of what has been taking place.

 

 https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/donald-trumps-dangerous-messaging-about-a-possible-coronavirus-treatment?

 

If he had acted presidential instead of an egotistical bully during this crisis, I think he would have garnered a lot of support from voters who did not vote for him last time. But smoke and mirrors base on his gut or hunches are a great disservice to the country.

 

If you drink the cool aide, wear the under ware and a MAGA hat there is nothing anyone can say that will change your mind.

 

I only wish I would live long enough to see what history has to say about this period.

 

BTW what are you going to do with your $1,200? I'm thinking a nice kicker motor for our boat. :thumbsup:

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mickeym3

Our $2400 is going to the church food pantry....that way at least some of the $ for who will need it the most. 

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Rinkydink

We’re going to pay our taxes. What comes around goes around. 

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Bud

Wonder if we will have to claim it as income on our 2020 tax return?

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Rinkydink
2 minutes ago, Bud said:

Wonder if we will have to claim it as income on our 2020 tax return?

I wondered that also. Nothing’s free...expect the worse and if not I’ll be pleasantly surprised. 

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chrisolson

Will long hair on men become a new trend as barber shops close for an undefined period ... and if they were open would you go?

 

 

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Hosstage

I don't know that I would go to the barber right now, but as soon as it seems safe, I will try to be first in line, they are going to be working overtime.

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Bud

Nancy cut mine this week.:thumbsup:

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Hosstage

I'm not letting my wife near mine, I'll end up looking like LLoyd from Dum and Dummer!

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chrisolson
45 minutes ago, Hosstage said:

as soon as it seems safe, I will try to be first in line, they are going to be working overtime.

 

If there are any left.  Here in Arizona there are a couple of franchise chains that are most prevalent for no appointment walk-in traffic, but the industry seems pretty low paid with constantly changing employees . 

 

How will customers make the assessment that its safe to have some stranger in such close contact ?  That might take months.

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