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Sonor

It's getting real

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Sonor

Today they announced that Disneyland is closing tomorrow and Disney World is closing on Monday.  No matter what you think of these establishments, think about the number of people employed now on unemployment. Disney World is the largest single site employer in the world with over 70,000 employees. The financial loss to both the parent company and the Orlando area is huge. This company would not have made this decision on a whim.  That said, I think I am going to take this virus a little less cavalier and rethink some of my actions.  Gym or stay home and work out? Other such ideas are coming as well.  

Sorry for the mental spewing but the realization of this thing is just starting to hit me.

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ESokoloff

Yep, “May you live in interesting times” has hit HARD.

The next few weeks will certainly be VERY interesting but we'll get through it.  

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Rougarou

Our company has put out the "you can work from home" notice, yet here I am, in the office.  On the positive side of this, I'll have to deal with less people, not concerned about getting the the corona,.....just concerned about getting the people that carry it:whistle:.

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realshelby

I don't get the toilet paper rush? Panic breeds panic. 

 

Yet when I went to Walmart for a couple things, one of which was RV toilet paper, they were completely sold out of paper towels and toilet paper. 

 

Except for RV toilet paper! I bought two packs. Plenty in stock. 

 

Went back last night for something....and ALL of the RV toilet paper was gone to. That is a LOT of wiping.....

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TEWKS
37 minutes ago, realshelby said:

I don't get the toilet paper rush? 

 

It really is a shitty situation, Terry. :P :grin: The panic is real, seems like it could be a form of terror even. :dontknow:

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Marty Hill

I knew I should have bought 10,000 rolls of TP.  My last chance to be a zillionaire.:4607:

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Rinkydink

Watching a panel of doctors on tv last night Dr. Drew said the media is doing a disservice to the public by blowing this way out of proportion and spreading false truths and hysteria for ratings. Yes it can be fatal but so is the flu and that they need to stick to the Weinstein type of stories etc. He added people need to just wash their hands and use common sense. If you’re older and have underlying health conditions it would be wise to lay low and let this pass. It will pass. Another show mentioned a vitamin C infusion study that has shown great results. Time will tell. 
I’m just as concerned about the economic impact of all of this. 

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roadscholar

The tell-tale will be Walmart and McDonalds, when they close you’ll know the end is near.

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John Ranalletta

Some perspective for Indiana residents:

 

image.thumb.png.c8645b71cb59fab652c16906a4a048a3.png

 

 

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John Ranalletta
26 minutes ago, roadscholar said:

The tell-tale will be Walmart and McDonalds, when they close you’ll know the end is near.

 

If we had anyone in leadership who understands the word "strategic", they would have already assessed food distribution issues and have a plan to engage institutional (e.g. Sysco) and retail providers (Walmart, Sams, Krogers) and state authorities to assure food availability and rationing in a worst-case scenario.

 

Of course, we don't; so, there isn't.  Like, there is only one manufacturer of IV bags and that plant was taken out by a hurricane in PR.

 

Quote

 

Behind the scenes, hospital pharmacy departments have devised ways to reserve the 25-to-100 milliliter saline bags for use in patients whose condition requires them and adopt viable substitute procedures when possible.  In most instances, patients do not even realize the situation — and that’s what hospital staff strive to do.

“Our goal is to make that invisible,” said Scott Hufford, executive director of pharmacy for acute care services at Community Health Network in Indianapolis. “We want to manage it so that patients don’t know, providers don’t know.”

 

 

Nobody in DC can see beyond the next fund raiser. 

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Rinkydink

DC being one of the richest zip codes in the country, their cavalier attitude to most of us common folk’s woes always reminded me of the Crisis What Crisis album cover. 
 

 

B7009C34-AD45-4606-872B-CBAD9EC5822A.jpeg

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realshelby

Just a tip....toilet paper actually is cut to the proper single use size. MANY are wasteful and use beyond the recommended amount. 

 

Practice using one shit...sheet till you can manage it. It really goes a long way. 

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Rougarou

How to properly use toilet paper,.......the infantry way!!

 

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Id's_OK

Some of the most helpful articles I've seen in the last day or two.  Keep in mind this is NOT a political issue!  As the article Mitch posted showed, every single day we delay serious distancing/isolation actions means ~40% cases:

What efforts in countries hit before we were can tell us about what to expect:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/814522489/singapore-wins-praise-for-its-covid-19-strategy-the-u-s-does-not

Potential (likely) overload of healthcare system:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/13/coronavirus-numbers-we-really-should-be-worried-about/

What we should be doing today (from three days ago!):

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-cancel-everything/607675/

What ‘social distancing’ should entail:

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-what-does-social-distancing-mean/607927/

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szurszewski

...and my son has about two hours of school left today, and then his district is closed through April 24th. 
 

In the spirit of social distancing and also not going crazy at home, I’m thinking it might be a great time for he and I to hop on a bike and go camp in Death Valley for a week or two. 
 

...unless they start closing parks too.

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TEDZ

Motorcycles:  A great form of social distancing transportation.

 

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John Ranalletta

If you've filled your larder to tide you over during the COVID-19 hibernation period, consider stocking up on currency, too.  Yep, I'm wearing my tinfoil hat as I write this, but having a cash stash is just another insurance policy if the financial crises turn into a banking crisis.  Just sayin'.  "Can't happen!" you say?  Well, who would've thunk we'd be here a month ago?

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Ken S
1 hour ago, Id's_OK said:

Some of the most helpful articles

Thanks for links to real journalism on the subjects.  They're helpful.  I don't watch television and haven't seen hysterical articles on the subject on trusted sources, like Washington Post and NY Times.

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MikeB60
1 hour ago, szurszewski said:

Death Valley for a week or two. 

I'm already there with about 4000 residents of the SEA-TAC area who are training at Fort Irwin. 

 

Looking like we may have to drive back to Alabama once we finish!   

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wbw6cos

What about the supply of wet wipes?   They should suffice if one runs out of TP.  Am I right?

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TEWKS

^ Streaks. ;) 

They just cancelled the Mass firefighter exam my son was going to take on the 21st.  :( As of now, postponed till June.

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MikeB60

DoD just instituted domestic travel restrictions.  No travel outside the local area through May 11. Includes a civilian hiring freeze unless the candidate is in the local area, no change of station moves ect.... Exceptions at the 4 star level for now. 

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Twisties
18 hours ago, szurszewski said:

...unless they start closing parks too.

New Mexico has closed their State Parks to overnight camping.  

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Rougarou
7 minutes ago, MikeB60 said:

DoD just instituted domestic travel restrictions.  No travel outside the local area through May 11. Includes a civilian hiring freeze unless the candidate is in the local area, no change of station moves ect.... Exceptions at the 4 star level for now. 

 

I've got NCIS, DCSA and two FBI guys coming to my office on Monday for one meeting, as well as three others from DoD coming from northern Va for another meeting,......none have called/emailed me to cancel out yet.

 

 

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Rinkydink

D0F63BAF-5389-40A6-AC0A-C6857865332B.jpeg

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Rinkydink

B62F0D1B-0E68-4AD6-B47A-329E1B25FFF1.jpeg

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MikeB60
1 hour ago, Rougarou said:

 

I've got NCIS, DCSA and two FBI guys coming to my office on Monday for one meeting, as well as three others from DoD coming from northern Va for another meeting,......none have called/emailed me to cancel out yet.

 

 

Its effective March 16th .  I work for the DoD and am in the middle of a mishap investigation in California.  I suspect they are going to give me until the end of next week and then recall my team.  Guidance came out yesterday, I suspect its gonna take a few to figure out the nuts and bolts of how to execute especially as it pertains to DoD law enforcement and those in fields similar to mine who have critical functions that require travel outside of the local area.     

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MikeRC
2 hours ago, Twisties said:

New Mexico has closed their State Parks to overnight camping.  

 

To me, that makes NO sense whatsoever.  What would be better for social distancing than being in a park?  

 

Unless they are trying to control the numbers and avoid overcrowding by people leaving the city.  

 

Interesting perspective on hoarding (I hope you have access to this if you are in the US):  https://globalnews.ca/news/6651464/covid-19-panic-buying-shortages/ 

 

"Charlebois said that about 11 per cent of households in Canada are “prone to panic buying.” In the U.S., it’s closer to 25 per cent."   One guy was buying 6 months of rice, oil and toothpaste.  I'm sure if he looked around his house he would find he already has the first 3 months in his cupboards/basement/garage.  

 

Canadian toilet paper manufacturers have about a 3 month supply on hand in their warehouses, distribution centers about another month and the manufacturers are cranking up production for 4 weeks to build another 3 month stockpile.  https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/kruger-tissue-covid-19-1.5495960

 

Mike C

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Rougarou
5 minutes ago, MikeB60 said:

Its effective March 16th .  I work for the DoD and am in the middle of a mishap investigation in California.  I suspect they are going to give me until the end of next week and then recall my team.  Guidance came out yesterday, I suspect its gonna take a few to figure out the nuts and bolts of how to execute especially as it pertains to DoD law enforcement and those in fields similar to mine who have critical functions that require travel outside of the local area.     

 

Ya, I know our company is still sending people overseas with those selected having the option to "opt out" of travel, .....so far, at least locally, none of our folks have opted out.

 

We'll see how it goes.

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Joe Frickin' Friday
On 3/13/2020 at 6:04 AM, Sonor said:

Today they announced that Disneyland is closing tomorrow and Disney World is closing on Monday.  No matter what you think of these establishments, think about the number of people employed now on unemployment.

 

The list continues, what with the cancellation of the rest of the NBA season, March Madness, and countless other events.  SAE just cancelled their annual World Congress event here in Detroit - a massive event that brings a big infusion of cash to the city.  NBA players will be fine, but like you said, spare a thought for the folks who pay their bills by selling hot dogs and popcorn at these games.  It's been nice to see a number of big-money players stepping up to help out those workers.

 

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Hosstage
2 hours ago, Rinkydink said:

D0F63BAF-5389-40A6-AC0A-C6857865332B.jpeg

 

Ok, now it really is serious. I held off on panic shopping, but I guess I have to start.

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ESokoloff

Here’s a map

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html


And here's Juan's take on it’s interpretation 


 

And then there’s AvE's take on the situation,

 

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Bill_Walker

Here in San Diego, the world famous San Diego Zoo, the SD Zoo's Safari Park, Sea World, and Legoland are all closing until at least April 1.  Schools are also closing.  And all of this is with very good reason.  We want to not be Italy:

"As of Friday night, 1,266 people have died in Italy due to the outbreak.

 

So here’s my warning for the United States: It didn’t have to come to this.

 

We of course couldn’t stop the emergence of a previously unknown and deadly virus. But we could have mitigated the situation we are now in, in which people who could have been saved are dying. I, and too many others, could have taken a simple yet morally loaded action: We could have stayed home.

 

What has happened in Italy shows that less-than-urgent appeals to the public by the government to slightly change habits regarding social interactions aren’t enough when the terrible outcomes they are designed to prevent are not yet apparent; when they become evident, it’s generally too late to act. I and many other Italians just didn’t see the need to change our routines for a threat we could not see.

 

Italy has now been in lockdown since March 9; it took weeks after the virus first appeared here to realize that severe measures were absolutely necessary.

 

According to several data scientists, Italy is about 10 days ahead of Spain, Germany, and France in the epidemic progression, and 13 to 16 days ahead of the United Kingdom and the United States. That means those countries have the opportunity to take measures that today may look excessive and disproportionate, yet from the future, where I am now, are perfectly rational in order to avoid a health care system collapse. The United States has some 45,000 ICU beds, and even in a moderate outbreak scenario, some 200,000 Americans will need intensive care."

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/13/opinion/coronavirus-cautionary-tale-italy-dont-do-what-we-did/

 

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longjohn

Hey @Bill_Walker has your better half mentioned chloroquine and zinc as being helpful?  I think it’s being used in SK. They really have their sh¡t together, unlike us. 

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TEWKS
27 minutes ago, longjohn said:

They really have their sh¡t together, unlike us. 


Ahh... the run on Sh!t Paper here makes perfect sense now! :grin:

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Bill_Walker
5 hours ago, longjohn said:

Hey @Bill_Walker has your better half mentioned chloroquine and zinc as being helpful?  I think it’s being used in SK. They really have their sh¡t together, unlike us. 

 

Not for chloroquine, which is an anti-malarial.  Zinc taken at the onset of symptoms can help keep you from spreading the infection.

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dduelin

Duplicate post.

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John Ranalletta
On 3/13/2020 at 3:36 PM, John Ranalletta said:

If you've filled your larder to tide you over during the COVID-19 hibernation period, consider stocking up on currency, too.  Yep, I'm wearing my tinfoil hat as I write this, but having a cash stash is just another insurance policy if the financial crises turn into a banking crisis.  Just sayin'.  "Can't happen!" you say?  Well, who would've thunk we'd be here a month ago?

 

image.thumb.png.03a1f4988b12e527db4bd4eb9deb5119.png

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MikeRC

John, I'm not sure anyone wants to touch money right now.   There are already a number of retailers refusing to take it.   

 

But I guess you weren't thinking of traditional retailers.   

 

A sobering graph from my statistics major son: 

 

Projected German, UK and US Countrywide Lockdown  

 

Summary:  Countrywide lockdown occurs when case rate is about 1 per 10,000 population (South Korea, Italy, Spain, France experience).  Probably March 23-25 for the US.   

 

Mike C

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Joe Frickin' Friday
11 hours ago, MikeRC said:

Summary:  Countrywide lockdown occurs when case rate is about 1 per 10,000 population (South Korea, Italy, Spain, France experience).  Probably March 23-25 for the US. 

 

Speaking of lockdown:

My 85YO dad lives in an assisted-living facility in Colorado.  My sister lives nearby and visits almost every day to take care of various odds and ends for him.  Here are the new facility policies in the wake of coronavirus:

  • No doctor appointments unless critically necessary- reschedule routine visits
  • No visitors at all, including PT, OT, etc
  • No outings EXCEPT maybe they will try to do a scenic drive but with spacing on the bus (so yeah, probably not)
  • Very limited activities with spacing, theoretically
  • For now, plan to have dining room be the same, but do the meals in two shifts (to limit dining room occupant density)
  • We can drop things off or mail things, no problem
  • If my dad turns off his cell phone, we can call and ask them to help him turn it back on
  • Residents can't go outside/leave the building

Just about a year ago a terrible wave of gastroenteritis swept through the facility, inspiring even more restrictive policies than the above.  Residents were not allowed to leave their apartments at all, even to eat; instead meals were brought to them.  That went on for a couple of weeks, and my dad was bored off his ass.  For the time being they are allowing residents to come out of their apartments and continue interacting with each other; I hope that can continue.  

 

I don't understand why residents aren't allowed to go outside.  My dad likes to go for a daily walk around the parking lot, so this kinda puts a crimp in his routine.

 

If the virus does get in there, I'm not optimistic about the staff's ability to contain it; they had little success in controlling last year's gastroenteritis bug, so the present pandemic would probably run wild.  My dad has Parkinson's disease, the main symptom of which (for him) is pretty major/chronic fatigue, but other than that he's got decent respiratory/cardiac health for an 85YO guy.  He might survive the bug if he catches it, but I imagine it'll make him pretty sick for a while.  Hoping for the best.

 

My brother typically visits him in late March or early April, in part to sort out his income tax return for him.  Not happening this year.  He can take care of my dad's taxes remotely, but this means one less in person visit for my dad - and I will also be skipping my May visit with him.  Sucks; these in-person visits are important for all of us.

 

Michigan announced its first couple of cases last Wednesday.  As of last night, the count was up to 53.

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Joe Frickin' Friday
On 3/13/2020 at 9:22 AM, Marty Hill said:

I knew I should have bought 10,000 rolls of TP.  My last chance to be a zillionaire.:4607:

 

Might want to think twice about that.  Two Tennessee brothers recently went out and bought up every bottle of sanitizer they could find in TN and KY.  They sold about 300 of them on Amazon at a massive markup - and then Amazon shut them down, leaving them with almost 18,000 bottles that they had no way of selling.

 

The brothers have now donated their remaining inventory of sanitizer and masks.  Meanwhile, the state is investigating them for price gouging.

 

https://time.com/5803707/1770-bottles-hand-sanitizer-amazon/

 

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Joe Frickin' Friday
On 3/13/2020 at 9:35 AM, Rinkydink said:

I’m just as concerned about the economic impact of all of this. 

 

Some impact is inherent as people get sick and consume expensive medical resources, but some of the economic impact will be self-inflicted (closing bars, stores, sending workers home, foregoing travel, etc.). 

 

The question of how big a self-inflicted economic impact we should be willing to tolerate is a valid one.  It comes down to asking how much money we are willing to spend/lose/forego to save a human life.  So how much is that?  Depending on which US government agency you ask, it's about $9 million.  As I understand it, if we take aggressive measures to slow the spread of the disease, we may only see 50,000 deaths, but if we let it get bad, we could lose 500,000 people.  What's it worth to save those 450,000 lives?

 

450,000 * $9,000,000 = $4,050,000,000,000.  That's $4.05 trillion.  

 

Will our deliberate economic hiatus cost us that much?  Doubtful.  For scale, that's almost the entire federal budget for 2019.  

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elkroeger

for a few bucks you can get a portable or travel bidet on amazon.

 

But people are catching on now:

 

Bidet sales spike  article

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Bud

My daughter works in a hospital and has been in contact with us about precautions we need to take. Both in mid-70's, I have adult onset asthma.

Yesterday our kids in town went grocery shopping for us. I cancelled my PT appointments at the hospital (don't want to go in there unless I'm really sick) and a follow up appointment with my urologist (annual after prostate cancer)

ILLINOIS schools closed. Bars and restaurants closed except for takeout.

Unprecedented times in the US. My mindset is it is better to be safe than sorry.

We have food for over 2 weeks and will see what is taking place then.

Our two granddaughters are coming home today from study abroad programs in Ireland. They will self quarantine two weeks before we see them.

We have two graduations in Colorado in May, one HS, one college. Hope by then air travel will be safely accessible by then.

How are things in your neck of the woods?

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Bud
39 minutes ago, elkroeger said:

for a few bucks you can get a portable or travel bidet on amazon.

 

But people are catching on now:

 

Bidet sales spike  article

 

We have two porta pitties. One on the boat and a new one for the boat that can be plumed for a pump out which is required in Canada.

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John Ranalletta
52 minutes ago, Bud said:

My daughter works in a hospital and has been in contact with us about precautions we need to take. Both in mid-70's, I have adult onset asthma.

Yesterday our kids in town went grocery shopping for us. I cancelled my PT appointments at the hospital (don't want to go in there unless I'm really sick) and a follow up appointment with my urologist (annual after prostate cancer)

ILLINOIS schools closed. Bars and restaurants closed except for takeout.

Unprecedented times in the US. My mindset is it is better to be safe than sorry.

We have food for over 2 weeks and will see what is taking place then.

Our two granddaughters are coming home today from study abroad programs in Ireland. They will self quarantine two weeks before we see them.

We have two graduations in Colorado in May, one HS, one college. Hope by then air travel will be safely accessible by then.

How are things in your neck of the woods?

 

Food hoarding going on here but Ruth just shopped at Aldi's and all looks normal except sugar is not available.

 

I was thinking and wonder if any here concur.  With all the event cancellations, especially, the NCAA tournaments, there should be plenty of food stuffs that were ordered in advance by hotels, bars, restaurants, events sites, etc. that are lodged in institutional food warehouses nationwide (Sysco, Gordon's).  That supply should reach the market in one way or another.  Fresh fruits and veggies normally come from Cali or South America.   

 

Not sure I understand TP issue.  Of course, the Pamper generations never rinsed out a soiled, cloth diaper in the toilet at 2 am.  Get a clean shop towel, wipe, rinse, wash, repeat.  

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MikeRC
49 minutes ago, John Ranalletta said:

 

I was thinking and wonder if any here concur.  With all the event cancellations, especially, the NCAA tournaments, there should be plenty of food stuffs that were ordered in advance by hotels, bars, restaurants, events sites, etc. that are lodged in institutional food warehouses nationwide (Sysco, Gordon's).  That supply should reach the market in one way or another.  Fresh fruits and veggies normally come from Cali or South America.   

 

 

John, when I was leaving Palm Springs last Wednesday they had just cancelled the Indian Wells Tennis Tournament. 

 

The Uber driver said that much of the food ordered for catering for the event was donated to the local Food Bank, but even then most of it had to be discarded. 

 

Mike C

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szurszewski
1 hour ago, John Ranalletta said:

 

...

 

I was thinking and wonder if any here concur.  With all the event cancellations, especially, the NCAA tournaments, there should be plenty of food stuffs that were ordered in advance by hotels, bars, restaurants, events sites, etc. that are lodged in institutional food warehouses nationwide (Sysco, Gordon's).  That supply should reach the market in one way or another.  Fresh fruits and veggies normally come from Cali or South America.   

 

...

 

We had an interesting situation here. My family is involved heavily with two non profits and this year their primary fundraiser auctions ended up on the same weekend.  Typically one raises $100k and the other $300k just at these events. Both were canceled about 24 hours ahead.

 

The smaller event was going to be catered in-house by a country club, except the desserts which are all made by my wife. The country club said no worries - we'll hold all your deposits and roll them over to a rescheduled date in September; no problem on the food - we'll absorb the cost and use what we can in the restaurant and donate the rest. Laura had almost all the dessert components made, but hadn't started final assembly of anything yet. As a result we have a freezer full of dessert parts (most will last a while, but none until Fall, so we'll just be having/giving a series of really good desserts the next few weeks/months) and DOZENS of fresh eggs and LOTS of cream and fresh fruits and such - I'm ok with all of that ;)

 

The larger event, 300 person guest list vs 100ish for the smaller, is held at a college and catered by an outside vendor at about $30k. That vendor said, sorry - we already bought food; no refund and no roll-over. Nothing we can do. After some persuasion, they agreed (I *think* upon the statement that they'd be permanently removed as a vendor if they didn't) to prepare the food and then donate it to a couple of local charities - they also agreed to pay their staff (kitchen and table) what they would have been paid for the event even if their services weren't required for the prep and donation.

 

 

 

 

 

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MikeRC

This may have slipped under the radar, but is an incredibly important policy decision by the American College of Surgeons last Friday:  

 

The College recommends hospitals, health systems, and surgeons enact plans to minimize, postpone, or cancel elective operations at the current time until we are “confident that our health care infrastructure can support a potentially rapid and overwhelming uptick in critical patient care needs.”   

 

A very proactive statement and policy, the type Government actually needs to take.   At this time, they are not suggesting any change to procedures in outpatient clinics or for cancer surgeries.  

 

Hopefully in a couple of weeks the system will have a better idea of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health care resources and it can be back to elective surgeries.  

 

Mike C

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John Ranalletta
19 minutes ago, MikeRC said:

This may have slipped under the radar, but is an incredibly important policy decision by the American College of Surgeons last Friday:  

 

The College recommends hospitals, health systems, and surgeons enact plans to minimize, postpone, or cancel elective operations at the current time until we are “confident that our health care infrastructure can support a potentially rapid and overwhelming uptick in critical patient care needs.”   

 

A very proactive statement and policy, the type Government actually needs to take.   At this time, they are not suggesting any change to procedures in outpatient clinics or for cancer surgeries.  

 

Hopefully in a couple of weeks the system will have a better idea of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on health care resources and it can be back to elective surgeries.  

 

Mike C


no elective/non emergency procedures here, Mike.  There goes my breast augmentation!

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