Virus

[Selden]

The little kid in this photo was ring bearer at my daughter's wedding. His last day at school was March 13, as all public schools in Georgia closed the following week.

 

 

He brought coronavirus home from school. A week or so later, he developed symptoms, and had a rough time before recovering. Then his mother caught it from him. She was to have surgery for colon cancer, which had to be postponed because of the illness. Her son died yesterday. I don't know what will become of her.

[Bill_Walker]

On 4/20/2020 at 12:03 AM, Red said:

A quick search of recent ofishully declared pandemics shows flu in 1968, flu in 1958, flu in 1918, and cholera in 1910/11.  All of these pandemics struck more than once. 

 

I've read a few articles that seem to indicate that the second wave of the 1918 pandemic was the result of municipalities easing quarantines too soon.  Will we learn from the past?  Recent evidence suggests perhaps not.

[John Ranalletta]

When H1N1 was in the news, I asked my doc for two prescriptions for Tamiflu, the preferred flu med in case either I or Ruth became ill.  I wanted to be prepared in advance if infected.  It's also the reason I had N95s in our emergency inventory when COVID hit. 

 

He replied that would be unethical because the drug might be needed for a patient actually afflicted with the flu.  I thought then and still believe that position and view is strategically incorrect.  Facing the possibility of an existential event (pandemic), a society is better served letting proactive people protect themselves first rather than saving medicines for reactive patients who wait for someone to help them.  That's why I'm not incensed by news that silicon valley magnates fled to their yachts and bunkers.  Before we look down our noses at those folks, many of us have been able to "bunker" without much distress.  We, too, have food and all the comforts of home.  It's relative.  To have disdain for someone heading to their New Zealand safe place while others in our society are waiting in food lines and worrying about utilities being shut off for non-payment, is nonsensical. 

 

Any society needs its brightest and most proactive to survive and rebuild.  (BTW, I don't claim to be a member of that group.  Proactive, maybe.  Brightest, not by a long shot.)  I'd offer, the current debate over opening or extended staying at home (SAH) falls into the same category.  Is the stay-at-home policy a strategically wise move?  Maybe not if the primary benefit is to shield the weakest members of the herd, i.e. people with a comorbidity and/or of advanced age (moi).   Yes, I read Selden's post about the boy's death; but, as a society, we accept the death of thousands, including children, to achieve a greater good like maintaining a surface transportation system..  At the same time, I am sensitive to Nassim Taleb's assertion that driving "is not multiplicative and CONTAGIOUS".

 

Before you send hate mail, I don't know which is the correct decision; and, I believe proponents on both sides don't have a clue about the downstream effects of either.  Proponents of herd immunity may be correct, but there are reports of "cured" COVID patients becoming reinfected.  Does it strike aged and infirm disproportionately?  Looks like it, but we don't know who's infected or not.  If extending the SAH brings the economy to its knees in a 30s-like depression with food scarcity and food riots, is that an eventuality we're ready to handle? Are authorities prepared to guarantee food security for all?

 

If a general fails to make a decision to engage in a battle because s/he agonizes over the ensuing casualties and loses the war, is s/he is fit to lead? 

 

A leader must make the decision that saves the most proactive, productive - people who are needed to lead rebuilding.  Is that SAH or opening?  You choose.

 

 

[chrisolson]

One is reminded of the infamous line from that master of logic ... Spock ... "The needs of the many ..." etc

 

 

[John Ranalletta]

7 minutes ago, chrisolson said:

One is reminded of the infamous line from that master of logic ... Spock ... "The needs of the many ..." e

 

 

 

Chris, again, I don't have the answer but I know this:  Every election is an attempt to crowd source strategy and it never works.  What every group needs is a leader who is willing to sacrifice some for the many.

[chrisolson]

John, sorry that you took that as a disparaging comment to your post.. not intended ... it is obviously an impossible dilemma ...I only thought it was the essence of where we are.  The only magic bullet would be a  vaccine that is cheap, readily available and completely effective.

 

edit:  OR a treatment that was also cheap, readily available and completely effective.

[John Ranalletta]

8 minutes ago, chrisolson said:

John, sorry that you took that as a disparaging comment to your post.. not intended ... it is obviously an impossible dilemma ...I only thought it was the essence of where we are.  The only magic bullet would be a  vaccine that is cheap, readily available and completely effective.

 

edit:  OR a treatment that was also cheap, readily available and completely effective.

 

I didn't infer anything negative in your post, Chris.

[ESokoloff]

On 4/20/2020 at 5:21 AM, Selden said:

The little kid in this photo was ring bearer at my daughter's wedding. His last day at school was March 13, as all public schools in Georgia closed the following week.

 

 

He brought coronavirus home from school. A week or so later, he developed symptoms, and had a rough time before recovering. Then his mother caught it from him. She was to have surgery for colon cancer, which had to be postponed because of the illness. Her son died yesterday. I don't know what will become of her.

So sorry to read this Selden
 

You stated that he had recovered from COVID-19. 
Did he relapse?

[ESokoloff]

7 hours ago, John Ranalletta said:

Any society needs its brightest and most proactive to survive and rebuild.  (BTW, I don't claim to be a member of that group.  Proactive, maybe.  Brightest, not by a long shot.)  I'd offer, the current debate over opening or extended staying at home (SAH) falls into the same category.  Is the stay-at-home policy a strategically wise move?  Maybe not if the primary benefit is to shield the weakest members of the herd, i.e. people with a comorbidity and/or of advanced age (moi). 

By your analysis of the situation, wouldn’t “The Herd” be better off without you?
 

[Kitsap]

Two friends have succumbed, they're just numbers to society.  My wife, sister, and brother in law are health care providers, the latter two as ICU Nurses.  Every night as my wife falls asleep I gaze upon her hoping I don't lose her, and say a prayer for the others on the front line; but they're just numbers to society.

[Selden]

The head of the CDC seems to be leaning in the direction of a second phase being worse than the first. It's his job to prepare for the worst, but I am hoping that it will not, but we won't really know until a year from now.

[Selden]

On 4/20/2020 at 3:03 AM, Red said:

Antibiotics are not relevant to virus control.  Antibiotics are anti bacterial.  Two different beasties.

 

Actually azithromycin is relevant. It's a weak antibiotic, but has strong anti-inflammatory properties, which is why there are trials of hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin. Neither attacks the virus itself, but they may help quell the cytokine storm that can overhwelm people if COVID-19 progresses to viral pneumonia. Unfortunately, both drugs have risks for heart arrhythmia. I have been on azithromycin for about 6 years as an anti-inflammatory to control bronchiectasis. So far, I haven't had any undesirable side effects.

[Skywagon]

Kitsap...it may feel a little bit like just numbers...but they aren't.  They are the very special people who will keep us alive.  Thank them for us.  There is no future without the healthcare professionals....They are our hero's

 

[Marty Hill]

Wade, I pray for you and your family.  I hope to see all of you again sometime.

[John Ranalletta]

3 hours ago, ESokoloff said:

By your analysis of the situation, wouldn’t “The Herd” be better off without you?
 

 

"Better off"?  Not sure, but I'm in the high mortality group. So "better off" may not be as apt as "expendable".  Oh, you mean because I'm dumb?  Yah.  That too.

[ESokoloff]

1 hour ago, John Ranalletta said:

 

"Better off"?  Not sure, but I'm in the high mortality group. So "better off" may not be as apt as "expendable".  Oh, you mean because I'm dumb?  Yah.  That too.

You speak (write) as if resources are/will be of limited supply & therefore MUST go to those individuals capable of the Rebuild/Rebirth after the dust has settled. 
Therefore do the best for the herd & ban yourself to the outer circle.........

That or just get out of the house for a bit & get a different perspective on things

[ESokoloff]

Mod's, wouldn’t this thread (now) be more appropriate in the General Discussion section?

 

(I know I missed seeing it for quite some time as I don’t always keep an eye on this section).

[John Ranalletta]

3 minutes ago, ESokoloff said:

You speak (write) as if resources are/will be of limited supply & therefore MUST go to those individuals capable of the Rebuild/Rebirth after the dust has settled. 
Therefore do the best for the herd & ban yourself to the outer circle.........

That or just get out of the house for a bit & get a different perspective on things

or, be proactive, even if dumb, and gather resources before they become scarce.  For those who don't raise their own meat protein, packers including Smithfield and Tyson have shuttered corona-ravaged plants. The Smithfield plant took 60k pork servings/day out of the food stream.  A friend who runs a canned meat factory has put customers on rations.   Hopefully, it won’t worsen, but hope makes thin soup. 

[ESokoloff]

10 hours ago, John Ranalletta said:

or, be proactive, even if dumb, and gather resources before they become scarce.  
 

Hopefully, it won’t worsen, but hope makes thin soup. 
 

It's time to gather with torches and scythes

It's true Luck favors the prepared but to put this into context can you answer one question?

 

What was your reaction to Y2K?

[John Ranalletta]

1 hour ago, ESokoloff said:

It's true Luck favors the prepared but to put this into context can you answer one question?

 

What was your reaction to Y2K?

 

I don't remember doing much if anything at all because I didn't have much then.  It might help to know my view of risk management is not increasing wealth/gains, but preventing loss.  More folks are worse off than they might otherwise be because they never imagined they could lose what they have, e.g. real estate value, stock market, exogenous events (Y2K, COVID).  While I believe insurance companies are criminal enterprises, I believe in insurance and protecting against the downside.

 

I realize I view the world differently than most others.  I'm not optimistic that "things always work out for the best", e.g. my wife is insulin dependent, a Type 1 diabetic.  Diabetics don't last long w/o insulin; so, when the COVID SHTF, we sourced a 6-month supply.  Why?  Because "what if" - Lilly's insulin production plant was hit by COVID as others are?  I don't know what they've done to insure a supply, but I'm not going to take that chance.  Silly?  Maybe, but I sleep better with those six little boxes in the frig.

[Selden]

The NIH panel, made up of 50 doctors, pharmacy experts and government researchers and officials, specifically recommended against the use of the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine in combination with the antibiotic azithromycin. The malaria pill can cause heart issues, and the NIH panel warned of the potential for harm from the combination.

“What do I know, I’m not a doctor, but I have common sense.” In promoting the drug's possibilities, the president has often stated, ”What have you got to lose?"

 

Now we know the answer to that rhetorical question.

 

Tomorrow he will tweet:

1. He was misquoted
2. It hasn't yet been proved that hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin does not work
3. He was just expressing an "aspirational" goal

[Selden]

12 hours ago, John Ranalletta said:

Silly?  Maybe, but I sleep better with those six little boxes in the frig.

 

Not at all silly. It was obvious by late February that things were going to downhill quickly, and on February 26, I ordered 90-day refills of as many of my meds as I could. I have enough critical meds such as Advair HFA and azithromycin on hand to last through the summer. and into the fall. With  a run on bronchodilators and anti-inflammatory drugs driven by COVID-19 cases, I'm glad I did. Albuterol rescue inhalers are now difficult to find.

[ESokoloff]

Quote

It's time to gather with torches and scythes.

John,  definitely wise to make provisions but why the Fearmongering?