Virus

[gordiet]

This Corona thing could mess up riding this summer if it gets much worse.

 

GT

[longjohn]

Every movie theater in China is closed. 70k.  Any event with crowds—???

[RPondaRoad]

My family in northern Italy reports that schools are closed along with restaurants and many stores.  Like longjohn reports, the Cinemas are closed too.  They say that the normally vibrant town where I used to live, Trento appears deserted because people are staying inside..   There is no one at the gyms, or indoor pools either.  Hopefully, this virus will act like other respiratory illnesses and fade away when the weather warms up and that a vaccine will be ready worldwide soon.  

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coronavirus-slow-down-warmer-months-flu-season_l_5e58277fc5b6beedb4e8af9b

[Marty Hill]

Didn't the asst. moron in chief say it would all go away soon?  Sad to have bumbling idiots in charge.

[Francois_Dumas]

Yes, it is worst in Italy. On the other hand, there are only a few small towns sealed off in a region SE of Milano. People are indeed apprehensive of meetings in that area (Northern Italy), but in the rest f Italy it is mainly business as usual. When it doesn't get much worse than now, probably northern Italy will remain a question mark for the next few months, but there are many beautiful regions in Italy elsewhere.

Almost all cases in Italy AND surrounding countries originate from the same county initially.

[longjohn]

555 cases of coronavirus have been announced across 5 prisons in three provinces in China. That is just a nightmare situation. 
 

76 cases have been reported in xinjiang where 1m Uighurs and other Muslims have been detained in re-education camps. 

[longjohn]

6 hours ago, Marty Hill said:

Didn't the asst. moron in chief say it would all go away soon?  Sad to have bumbling idiots in charge.

Having a science denier in charge of a health crisis is not comforting

[chrisolson]

7 hours ago, Marty Hill said:

Didn't the asst. moron in chief say it would all go away soon?  Sad to have bumbling idiots in charge.

 

1 hour ago, longjohn said:

Having a science denier in charge of a health crisis is not comforting

 

 

Please move it to Full Throttle ....

[Marty Hill]

Why?  Is the truth dangerous.  If this is so horrible, just delete me from the group.  

[eddd]

12 minutes ago, Marty Hill said:

Why?  Is the truth dangerous.  If this is so horrible, just delete me from the group.  

 

"Having a science denier in charge of a health crisis is not comforting"

 

You are welcome to your opinions. The problem is that they are political and therefore have no place in this forum.  Full Throttle is where political comments are allowed.  Feel free to start a post over there but keep in mind that Full Throttle has rules that must be followed.  They are listed at the top of the Forum.

 

We also expect members to self-monitor and follow the forum rules and guidelines.

 

Ed

Staff

[Skywagon]

Francois and RPonda...thanks for update.  We are going to Italy in May for 3 weeks...many towns.  Appreciate if you could keep us updated from a local point of view.  We hear the news here buy nothing more accurate than local knowledge.

 

Thanks,

David

[Francois_Dumas]

Will keep you posted Skywagon. Hope it blows over by then! 

[The Rocketman]

I'm supposed to fly to Slovenia on May 25th, then ride down to Fano, Italy for about a week. Then maybe head to Tuscany, Switzerland and back to Slovenia to return home on June 8th. I hope for everyone this ends quickly and doesn't get worse. I hope for me it is safe as I may be with a fairly large group, and my airfare is non-refundable.

[Francois_Dumas]

1 hour ago, The Rocketman said:

I'm supposed to fly to Slovenia on May 25th, then ride down to Fano, Italy for about a week. Then maybe head to Tuscany, Switzerland and back to Slovenia to return home on June 8th. I hope for everyone this ends quickly and doesn't get worse. I hope for me it is safe as I may be with a fairly large group, and my airfare is non-refundable.

 

 

Hoping with you. For now Fano and Tuscany are still out of the high danger zone (and so are we here in Umbria). Will monitor the situation and continue to report here and on Facebook. 

[dba]

I'm still planning my trip to ride England, Wales and Scotland in July.  

[scout6]

We keep getting flyers for Viking River Tours. The price keeps dropping.  Wonder if they will end up canceled?

 

[Francois_Dumas]

Here's the latest on the Corona virus problems in Italy. But Germany and France are also getting more cases. 

 

Lockdown as Italy poised to shut worst-hit region

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/g9ogfU

 

[Bill_Walker]

Johns Hopkins has a good source for monitoring the number of cases detected and the number of people who have recovered and who have died.  In addition to the tables on the sides, you can click on any red dot on the map and get the numbers for that country.  Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE

[RT5HTP]

I kept two weeks open,  beginning June 5th to shove off to parts unknown. Not gonna happen.  

[Sonor]

Status in NC, USA - schools and public facilities closed for a while. General stay at home from the Gov. in place for a few weeks. Only essential stores are allowed to be open.  Starting Monday, Ap.13, restrictions on how many people can be in a store based on square footage of the store. Mrs. Sonor works at Duke University and they are not collecting parking fees through June.  I think this is going to last for a while folks. 

[Patallaire]

On 2/29/2020 at 3:24 PM, Marty Hill said:

Why?  Is the truth dangerous.  If this is so horrible, just delete me from the group.  

Marty:

 

No one is opposed to opinions presented as facts, the administrators kindly asked you to post it in the appropriate forum.  The "Full Throttle" forum welcomes any and all opinions, and occasionally facts.  If you choose to not be in a discussion, you most certainly can and should exercise that privilege, which is afforded to everyone. You have been a great contributor to the group in general, please don't threaten to leave if we disagree with your placement of something or even in your ideology. Threats diminish your prestige.

[mickeym3]

Buddy and I still have hotel reservations at Dawson City Yukon for the D2D rally....nothing wrong with optimism; you'll fare much better that way.

[Selden]

After watching fares drop 20%, I bought two Atlanta - Istanbul round trip tickets about a month ago, and made reservations for the first night's lodging and a rental car. The fare has dropped slightly since then, but it's hard to time the bottom.

 

The trip is scheduled for August 30-September 18, by which time the pandemic may or may not have diminished before it inevitably flares up again with the return of colder weather. If not, the reservations can be cancelled, and the airline will probably cancel the flight. If they don't outright cancel, I can re-schedule without penalty.

 

In the meantime, I still plan to study Turkish over the summer.

[Francois_Dumas]

Latest update from Italy.... Country total Lockdown will probably be extended to May 3rd, after which the situation will be evaluated again. Even best case will only see a gradual re-opening of businesses and it is totally unclear whether current travel restrictions will be lifted any time soon 😢😢😢😢😢

[Rougarou]

1 hour ago, Selden said:

After watching fares drop 20%, I bought two Atlanta - Istanbul round trip tickets about a month ago, and made reservations for the first night's lodging and a rental car. The fare has dropped slightly since then, but it's hard to time the bottom.

 

The trip is scheduled for August 30-September 18, by which time the pandemic may or may not have diminished before it inevitably flares up again with the return of colder weather. If not, the reservations can be cancelled, and the airline will probably cancel the flight. If they don't outright cancel, I can re-schedule without penalty.

 

In the meantime, I still plan to study Turkish over the summer.

 

 

The only thing I remember in Turkish is alasmaladic, which is good bye

[RPondaRoad]

As of today, there are 97,039 deaths among 1,617,204 infections world wide.  That's a 6% mortality rate.  Here in the U.S., as of today, there are 16,739 deaths among 470,612 infections for a 3.5% mortality rate (35 times that of the flu).  Even if better/more testing lowered those mortality percentages by indicating more infections, the picture isn't pretty.  So, while this virus is among us and is without a vaccine or a cure, the governments of our countries can declare business to be open, but I'm not going to be participating.  Go to a coffee shop with friends?  No.  Go to a motorcycle or car dealership and buy a new vehicle? No.  Take a long motorcycle tour where I'd have to eat in the presence of others in restaurants? No.  Hop into an Uber with some friends and head for the bar?  No.  Go to a ballgame? No. Get on an airplane ?  No.  Do I trust politicians with a electoral interest in getting our economy running in opposition to the scientific interest in public health? No.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Selden]

Phonetically that is very close : Allahaısmarladık

[mickeym3]

25 minutes ago, RPondaRoad said:

As of today, there are 97,039 deaths among 1,617,204 infections world wide.  That's a 6% mortality rate.  Here in the U.S., as of today, there are 16,739 deaths among 470,612 infections for a 3.5% mortality rate (35 times that of the flu).  Even if better/more testing lowered those mortality percentages by indicating more infections, the picture isn't pretty.  So, while this virus is among us and is without a vaccine or a cure, the governments of our countries can declare business to be open, but I'm not going to be participating.  Go to a coffee shop with friends?  No.  Go to a motorcycle or car dealership and buy a new vehicle? No.  Take a long motorcycle tour where I'd have to eat in the presence of others in restaurants? No.  Hop into an Uber with some friends and head for the bar?  No.  Go to a ballgame? No. Get on an airplane ?  No.  Do I trust politicians with a electoral interest in getting our economy running in opposition to the scientific interest in public health? No.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course the statistics can be influenced by the availability of test kits and other factors.  What amazes me is the data reflecting the 8.7% mortality rate in Sweden.  Don't know much about Sweden's culture beyond liking "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" but are they really largely indifferent to that with their restaurants and businesses going on as usual?  

[terryofperry]

3 hours ago, RPondaRoad said:

As of today, there are 97,039 deaths among 1,617,204 infections world wide.  That's a 6% mortality rate.  Here in the U.S., as of today, there are 16,739 deaths among 470,612 infections for a 3.5% mortality rate (35 times that of the flu).  Even if better/more testing lowered those mortality percentages by indicating more infections, the picture isn't pretty.  So, while this virus is among us and is without a vaccine or a cure, the governments of our countries can declare business to be open, but I'm not going to be participating.  Go to a coffee shop with friends?  No.  Go to a motorcycle or car dealership and buy a new vehicle? No.  Take a long motorcycle tour where I'd have to eat in the presence of others in restaurants? No.  Hop into an Uber with some friends and head for the bar?  No.  Go to a ballgame? No. Get on an airplane ?  No.  Do I trust politicians with a electoral interest in getting our economy running in opposition to the scientific interest in public health? No.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking at the death rate per number of cases is misleading. Open cases have no resolution currently. An open case will either recover or die. Until then, they are not part of the death rate. The number of deaths divided by the number of cases resolved (recovered + died) is the death rate. 

 

 

 

Terry

 

[dba]

On 3/7/2020 at 11:12 AM, dba said:

I'm still planning my trip to ride England, Wales and Scotland in July.  

 

Just got the word on Monday the 6th of April that all of the 2020 tours from the company I was using have been cancelled.  I wasn't slated to start riding until July 30.  Incredibly disappointed but people need to get well.  So July of 2021 it is.  

[RandyShields]

Wow.  Pretty severe.  I would have thought a late summer/fall trip would have been low risk and doable.  Too bad.

[dba]

7 minutes ago, RandyShields said:

Wow.  Pretty severe.  I would have thought a late summer/fall trip would have been low risk and doable.  Too bad.

 

I thought I'd be okay also.  Final payment to the tour company wasn't due until May.  I'll just pay when it's due and I have the same dates and bike booked for 2021.  It's a self guided tour, so they'll make the hotel arrangements for the two weeks I'm riding.  I have a refund from United and been able to cancel the pre-tour hotel in Woking and the post-tour stay in London.  

[Selden]

3 hours ago, dba said:

 

Just got the word on Monday the 6th of April that all of the 2020 tours from the company I was using have been cancelled.  I wasn't slated to start riding until July 30.  Incredibly disappointed but people need to get well.  So July of 2021 it is.  

 

That's definitely disappointing, but not surprising. The U.K. is locked down much tighter than the U.S.A.

 

I still have my fingers crossed for Turkey in September, but I won't be terribly surprised if we have to cancel. My wife and I will be celebrating our 50th wedding anniversary this year, and back in December started thinking about travel. The two top options on our bucket list were:

 

1. In May, fly to Bellingham, WA, and take the Alaska Maritime Ferry up to Haines, possibly farther. Definitely out.

2. End of August, fly to Istanbul, rent a car, and get out of the big city as quickly as possible for a 2-week drive around Anatolia. Possibly out.

 

At the rate things are going, just being alive and well on November 28 will be reason for celebration.

[RPondaRoad]

8 hours ago, terryofperry said:

Looking at the death rate per number of cases is misleading. Open cases have no resolution currently. An open case will either recover or die. Until then, they are not part of the death rate. The number of deaths divided by the number of cases resolved (recovered + died) is the death rate. 

So, by your method, the 477,279 resolved cases with 102,058 fatalities would be a 21% mortality rate instead of the 6% using the total known cases.  OK.   I'm glad Bev-Mo delivers.  I'm gonna be in here for awhile.  

 

 

[szurszewski]

53 minutes ago, RPondaRoad said:

So, by your method, the 477,279 resolved cases with 102,058 fatalities would be a 21% mortality rate instead of the 6% using the total known cases.  OK.   I'm glad Bev-Mo delivers.  I'm gonna be in here for awhile.  

 

 

It’s not *quite* that bad - 17.6%

[Selden]

18 hours ago, terryofperry said:

Looking at the death rate per number of cases is misleading. Open cases have no resolution currently. An open case will either recover or die. Until then, they are not part of the death rate. The number of deaths divided by the number of cases resolved (recovered + died) is the death rate. 

 

This is alarming, but I think misleading without knowing the definition of  "number of cases resolved." Does it mean the number of people who survived after testing positive? If so, how is this number obtained? OR, more likely, does the number of people who survived mean those who sought medical attention and were either treated or hospitalized, then discharged? We know that we are undercounting who were infected but either asymptomatic or never tested, but without a definition of "number of cases resolved" a 21% overall mortality rate seems unlikely.

 

Singapore and South Korea, where testing, tracking, and follow-up have been extensive, may be more relevant:

Singapore: 492 recovered, 7 fatalities = 1.4%

South Korea: 7243 recovered, 211 fatalities = 2.9%

 

Germany is generally seen as having the best testing and monitoring program in Europe:

48,692 recovered, 2710 fatalities = 5.56%

 

Update: "COVID antibody test in German town shows 15 percent infection rate"

Quote

Data from coronavirus deaths in Gangelt suggests an infection mortality rate of 0.37 percent...

 

In the unlikely event that the American experience mirrors that of Germany, that still works out to nearly 200,000 deaths.

 

As has been true from the beginning of this pandemic, we do not have enough data to extrapolate accurately beyond a few days. I'm not trying to paint a rosy scenario, but I'm also not going to lose any sleep over this new way of looking at the mortality rate. The coronavirus will be a serious public health threat until we have tested, manufactured, distributed, and delivered effective antivirals, followed by effective vaccines. Neither is within sight.

 

Not going to church tomorrow would help. https://apnews.com/e919561dd11c2b7043fea7e87962bd96

[Selden]

18 hours ago, szurszewski said:

It’s not *quite* that bad - 17.6%

 

It's not nearly that bad. The logical error is in looking at number of recovered while the number of infections is rising rapidly, as it still is worldwide.

 

Using the recovered measure, as of this moment the USA has 29,107 recovered cases and 18,771 deaths, which works out to a 64.5% mortality rate. 

[Bill_Walker]

Here's one plan on when a state can realistically be "open for business" again:

• Hospitals in the state must be able to safely treat all patients requiring hospitalization, without resorting to crisis standards of care.
• A state needs to be able to at least test everyone who has symptoms.
• The state is able to conduct monitoring of confirmed cases and contacts.
• There must be a sustained reduction in cases for at least 14 days.
These four criteria are a baseline. Other experts think we will need to add serological testing, which is different from the viral detection going on now. This type of testing looks for antibodies in the blood that our bodies created to fight the infection, not the infection itself. These tests can be much cheaper and faster than the ones we’re currently using to detect the virus in sick people.

Source: https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/National-Coronavirus-Response-a-Road-Map-to-Recovering-2.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3Xk0TNdzTjQPF6TIO7f0LEabQUxqwHXstSr96v5x-VRh9TtRXlNyB-LC0

There are a couple of other similar plans out there that are either more or less restrictive than this one, which comes from the conservative American Enterprise Institute.

 

Personally, I don't think I'm going much of anywhere until I've received a proven vaccine, which is still 12-18 months out.  I'm an asthmatic, and there are reports that people who have recovered can end up with long-term lung damage.

[lawnchairboy]

On 4/10/2020 at 12:38 PM, RPondaRoad said:

As of today, there are 97,039 deaths among 1,617,204 infections world wide.  That's a 6% mortality rate.  Here in the U.S., as of today, there are 16,739 deaths among 470,612 infections for a 3.5% mortality rate (35 times that of the flu).  Even if better/more testing lowered those mortality percentages by indicating more infections, the picture isn't pretty.  So, while this virus is among us and is without a vaccine or a cure, the governments of our countries can declare business to be open, but I'm not going to be participating.  Go to a coffee shop with friends?  No.  Go to a motorcycle or car dealership and buy a new vehicle? No.  Take a long motorcycle tour where I'd have to eat in the presence of others in restaurants? No.  Hop into an Uber with some friends and head for the bar?  No.  Go to a ballgame? No. Get on an airplane ?  No.  Do I trust politicians with a electoral interest in getting our economy running in opposition to the scientific interest in public health? No.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We will likely never know the total number of cases or the real mortality rate, which is very likely many times lower than is currently known/reported.  

[Rinkydink]

Makes one wonder how accurate the 1918 pandemic mortality rates/numbers really are. 

[lawnchairboy]

21 hours ago, Selden said:

 

That's definitely disappointing, but not surprising. The U.K. is locked down much tighter than the U.S.A.

 

I still have my fingers crossed for Turkey in September, but I won't be terribly surprised if we have to cancel. My wife and I will be celebrating our 50th wedding anniversary this year, and back in December started thinking about travel. The two top options on our bucket list were:

 

1. In May, fly to Bellingham, WA, and take the Alaska Maritime Ferry up to Haines, possibly farther. Definitely out.

2. End of August, fly to Istanbul, rent a car, and get out of the big city as quickly as possible for a 2-week drive around Anatolia. Possibly out.

 

At the rate things are going, just being alive and well on November 28 will be reason for celebration.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/11/832424919/turkey-imposes-48-hour-coronavirus-curfew-in-major-cities-with-little-warning?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates

 

Hopefully your  trip goes forward successfully.

[dba]

22 hours ago, Selden said:

 

That's definitely disappointing, but not surprising. The U.K. is locked down much tighter than the U.S.A.

 

I still have my fingers crossed for Turkey in September, but I won't be terribly surprised if we have to cancel. My wife and I will be celebrating our 50th wedding anniversary this year, and back in December started thinking about travel. The two top options on our bucket list were:

 

1. In May, fly to Bellingham, WA, and take the Alaska Maritime Ferry up to Haines, possibly farther. Definitely out.

2. End of August, fly to Istanbul, rent a car, and get out of the big city as quickly as possible for a 2-week drive around Anatolia. Possibly out.

 

At the rate things are going, just being alive and well on November 28 will be reason for celebration.

 

50 years married is a reason to celebrate no matter where you are; so congratulations to you both.  If the celebration is in Turkey, all the better.  The weather should be perfect and actually starting to not be so hot.

Been to Ephesus and Bodrum and loved the towns and loved the people.  Very best of luck to you.

[terryofperry]

The high mortality rate vs resolved cases makes sense when tests were mainly given to those with severe symptoms only. Those cases resulted in hospitalization as well as being reported while the others were sent home without being tested since little could be done for them. The present rate should drop sharply as more "milder" symptom persons are tested, the expectation is for that group to recover in larger numbers. Nobody knows the numbers presently.

 

Terry

[tallman]

We have a Developmental Center, 200 residents.

Various days of testing and positive results.

 

This weekend, 33 positives, but 22 were asymptomatic.

66% of them.

 

There are a lot, a lot, a lot of carriers out there without symptoms.

Act as if you have it and don't want to transmit it.

 

We have many, many under 20 testing positive.

It isn't only an issue for elderly or "compromised".

 

 

[Selden]

As if we didn't have enough to worry about: Doctor says coronavirus could be spreading through farts – but experts aren’t so sure

 

If infected, I could be a superspreader.

[Hosstage]

37 minutes ago, Selden said:

As if we didn't have enough to worry about: Doctor says coronavirus could be spreading through farts – but experts aren’t so sure

 

If infected, I could be a superspreader.

 

I just killed 3 people...

[Francois_Dumas]

Now, if you could all please fart in the general direction of Mark Fuckerberg. Thank you. 

[Red]

Just read in the 18 April Wall St Urinal that over the past century all pandemics have come in two waves.  No matter how well we flatten the curve, and in fact partially because we have flattened the curve, you can expect another wave beginning this fall.  If history is a guide, the second wave will likely be worse than the first.  Unless and until a vaccine is widely available and our herd immunity is in the 75 to 95% levels, we'll experience repeated waves albeit in decreasing intensity.  Could last well into 2022.  Most importantly, now that we know flatulence may be a mechanism of spread, we need to be stockpiling N95 adult diapers!  Get yours before the shelves are empty.  You heard it here first.

[Selden]

35 minutes ago, Red said:

Just read in the 18 April Wall St Urinal that over the past century all pandemics have come in two waves.  No matter how well we flatten the curve, and in fact partially because we have flattened the curve, you can expect another wave beginning this fall.  If history is a guide, the second wave will likely be worse than the first. 

 

As the president likes to say, "We'll see what happens." The second wave is not guaranteed to be worse than the first.

 

There are some major differences in epidemiology and medicine between the 2019 coronavirus and the 1918 influenza:

1. If I remember correctly the pathogen for the 1918 flu was not identified as a virus until the 1930s. 
2. The complete genome for the 2019 coronavirus was sequenced in January. 
3. Antibiotics did not exist in 1918.
4. Although a vaccine may not be ready in time for a second wave, multiple antiviral drugs are under investigation, and at least some of them should be widely available by September.

This article may be of interest: Taubenberger, J. The Origin and Virulence of the 1918 “Spanish” Influenza Virus. Proc Am Philos Soc. 2006 Mar; 150(1): 86–112. (2006)

Available online at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720273/

 

PS: The only reason the 1918 pandemic is called the "Spanish" influenza is that wartime censorship prevented publicizing information that it originated in Kansas. Spain was neutral during WWi, so the news broke in Spain, which wasn't under a wartime news embargo.

[Red]

The article did not specify how many pandemics, but it was clear that they were not just addressing the 'Spanish' flu.  I'm not an expert on the Spanish flu but it seems that there were signs of obviscation of it's severity due to the need to win an ongoing war.  WWI US combat casualties were about 53 thousand.  45 thousand additional soldiers died of flu.  Roughly 675 thousand Americans died of that flu.  While the reasons for the larger death toll in the second wave is still debated, the fact that there was a second wave and that it was much more deadly is undisputed.  Obviously we didn't get that flu nailed down as there was a third wave as well.

 

A quick search of recent ofishully declared pandemics shows flu in 1968, flu in 1958, flu in 1918, and cholera in 1910/11.  All of these pandemics struck more than once.  The world started this pandemic with absolutely no immunity what so ever.   This is not like seasonal flu for which the 'herd' has some existing immunity and some of the herd gets vaccinated.  So, the Covid-19 beastie currently has the upper hand.  Surely advances in science will undoubtedly speed a solution.  A drug that may lessen the symptoms could be out for human trials soon and take about 6 months for results.  A vaccine could maybe be available in 12 to 18 months.  Both of those hopes are beyond the time by which many believe the second wave will begin.  

Antibiotics are not relevant to virus control.  Antibiotics are anti bacterial.  Two different beasties.

Doesn't much matter if we didn't know what organism was that caused the Spanish flu was at the time, it was a highly contagious human to human transmitted disease and the procedures for infectious disease control are much the same as today.  We simply blew it.

Apologies if my humor re flatulence made my post seem flippant.  And no, there is no guarantee the second wave will be worse than the first.  I really don't care if it's worse.  If it's only just as bad as the first wave, is that a good thing?  600 to 800 people per day dying in NYC.  I think that's bad enough.  Pitty if second wave is worse, eh?  These are serious times which call for focused science based solutions.  

While history does not repeat itself exactly, there is much to learn from similar historical biological events.