COVID-19 Poll

[Yeeha Stephen]

And BTW 24hrs has shown a big improvement on the  Kroger shelves near me. Our truckers must've come thru.

This location was completely restocked overnight! The only thing I saw missing was yellow squash over in produce!

 

And look! No hoarders. Everyone was actually strolling around "shopping".

.

.

.

.

[MikeRC]

37 minutes ago, Yeeha Stephen said:

And BTW 24hrs has shown a big improvement on the  Kroger shelves near me. Our truckers must've come thru.

This location was completely restocked overnight! The only thing I saw missing was yellow squash over in produce!

 

And look! No hoarders. Everyone was actually strolling around "shopping".

 

 

Yeeha! 

 

We went to our usual store for "senior's hour" this morning.  Slim pickings.  Have gone with some home meal delivery 2-3 days a week.  We will see how that goes.  

 

Mike C

[MikeRC]

48 minutes ago, Yeeha Stephen said:

I've been going nuts on the over-hype on getting tested. People were freaking like the test was the cure and they couldn't get there hands on it.

Well, I finally heard a news report on what a positive test will get you.  TLC, help with breathing if required and medications like Tamiflu, Zithromax Z-Pak, and the Malaria drug Hydroxychloroquine seems to be helping. None are approved, they are just throwing things at the Virus and this combo seems to be doing the best.

 

Gonna be a whole lot of people dying from irregular and uncontrollable heart rhythm problems from the chloroquine and azithromycin combo.  People better leave that kinda thing up to professionals. 

 

CDC - COVID-19 Therapeutic Options 

 

As stated above, testing isn't necessarily for your benefit, it is to identify the people who actually have the disease.  Then test and isolate or quarantine their contacts.  

 

Mike C

[mileypop]

58 minutes ago, Yeeha Stephen said:

And BTW 24hrs has shown a big improvement on the  Kroger shelves near me. Our truckers must've come thru.

This location was completely restocked overnight! The only thing I saw missing was yellow squash over in produce!

 

And look! No hoarders. Everyone was actually strolling around "shopping".

.

.

.

.

 

https://images.app.goo.gl/D9jDwM26HRS6zxii9

 

This is still us in Blighty,  things are absolutely stupid!

 

[chrisolson]

1 hour ago, MikeRC said:

Have gone with some home meal delivery 2-3 days a week.

 

Use to have Sun Basket but stopped long ago ... sometimes the options were a bit more fancy than the family's taste ... but the ingredients were top notch !   As long as their supply chains last, its a pretty good option to not interact and still get meals to eat ... pricing used to be comparable with your average restaurant meal so on a constant basis it can be a bit pricey.

 

Looks like   SunBasket   is still going and they address the COVID-19 situation on their site.  Might give them or one of the other options a try again.

[szurszewski]

Made a trip to the grocery store early this morning - it's a Haggen, so the Albertson/Safeway company - and it was well stocked. There were some things missing, like no toilet paper and only a few  cases of two brands of paper towels in the paper aisle, and still no hand sanitizer or bleach wipes, but mostly it was well stocked. They are normally open 24 hours, but switched to 6am-midnight (had been opening at 5 last week - I got there just after 0600 today and was glad I hadn't shown up at 0515!) and were still stocking some things while I was there. Oh - they were almost entirely out of baking flour - they had a few bags of whole wheat and a few bags of organic pastry flour and that was it. I was surprised as they usually have a very large stock and variety. That and the paper aisle were the only empty shelves - everywhere else there was an item missing the shelf space was taken up with more stock of surrounding items. 

 

It was not busy at all and I was there for nearly an hour (finished our shopping and just as I was leaving my mom finally emailed me her list, so I went back in to do her shopping for the week). The thing I found the most interesting/unexpected was that each register (including the two in the Starbucks) had plexiglass barriers put up between the customer side of the POS/card reader and the cashier. Sort of a cross between a buffet sneeze guard and what some banks have between you and the tellers. I should have taken a picture...

[Joe Frickin' Friday]

Just tried Amazon Prime/Whole Foods delivery service today.  Worked great.  Ordered from Amazon's website, selected a 2-hour delivery window, and our groceries were dropped off on our porch right on schedule (they ring the doorbell and don't wait for you).  No delivery fee if you order >$35.  They didn't give us the crappiest produce, either - it's all good stuff.  Not only did it save us the time/expense of a trip to the store, it reduced our exposure to everyone at the store (at the price of just one more person touching our food).  

[Whip]

Good to know

 

Thanks

[MikeRC]

2 hours ago, szurszewski said:

Made a trip to the grocery store early this morning - it's a Haggen, so the Albertson/Safeway company - and it was well stocked. There were some things missing, like no toilet paper and only a few  cases of two brands of paper towels in the paper aisle, and still no hand sanitizer or bleach wipes, but mostly it was well stocked. They are normally open 24 hours, but switched to 6am-midnight (had been opening at 5 last week - I got there just after 0600 today and was glad I hadn't shown up at 0515!) and were still stocking some things while I was there. Oh - they were almost entirely out of baking flour - they had a few bags of whole wheat and a few bags of organic pastry flour and that was it. I was surprised as they usually have a very large stock and variety. That and the paper aisle were the only empty shelves - everywhere else there was an item missing the shelf space was taken up with more stock of surrounding items. 

 

It was not busy at all and I was there for nearly an hour (finished our shopping and just as I was leaving my mom finally emailed me her list, so I went back in to do her shopping for the week). The thing I found the most interesting/unexpected was that each register (including the two in the Starbucks) had plexiglass barriers put up between the customer side of the POS/card reader and the cashier. Sort of a cross between a buffet sneeze guard and what some banks have between you and the tellers. I should have taken a picture...

 

Linda found that, too.  We thought that was the oddest thing.   We rarely bake outside of holiday season.  

 

Do you think people are magically going to learn to bake while practicing social distancing?  At least those same people probably have lots of toilet paper for cleanup.  

 

Mike C

[szurszewski]

Maybe they figure they’ll have time to learn once the stores are finally emptied. Or maybe flour isn’t being prioritized by distributors right now. 
 

It would be interesting to know. 
 

Edit to add:

 

Huh - apparently it’s a thing:

https://apple.news/AD9aDzsigT42u2fjfdx1PMg

[MikeRC]

22 minutes ago, szurszewski said:

Maybe they figure they’ll have time to learn once the stores are finally emptied. Or maybe flour isn’t being prioritized by distributors right now. 
 

It would be interesting to know. 
 

Edit to add:

 

Huh - apparently it’s a thing:

https://apple.news/AD9aDzsigT42u2fjfdx1PMg

 

Wow, who knew that anyone would take up baking bread. 

 

Also explains why there was no yeast.  Which a friend asked us to look for.  She is on her (mandated here) 14 days of self-isolation after returning from the Caribbean.  

 

Mike C

[stubble!]

Appreciate the discourse here. I don’t drop in a lot. My whole team has been working from home for a week now, kids are off school, and we asked my son to pause his part time job also. My dad is vulnerable and needs my visits so we are taking every precaution. We tried whole foods amazon delivery today and it was fine. Surprised we could get it. I suppose it’s better than going to the store ourselves and using a cart, checkout conveyor, etc etc. We were getting out for hikes but decided even that brought too much risk, not that it matters much since all area parks were just closed because people were swamping them driving in from surrounding areas. I’m concerned about the local economies, here and everywhere. But we’re hunkered down doing what we can and feeling grateful for what we have. Someday we will ride and it will be fabulous.

[lawnchairboy]

Spoke with an anesthetist friend in IN today.   He has 10 in ICU with 8 ventilated, all older age ranges.   

 

Seems to be consistent with data that this virus is more challenging for older folks.   My facility set up external tents today.  No confirmed cases as of this afternoon at our place.  

[RandyShields]

29 minutes ago, lawnchairboy said:

Spoke with an anesthetist friend in IN today.   He has 10 in ICU with 8 ventilated, all older age ranges.   

 

Seems to be consistent with data that this virus is more challenging for older folks.   My facility set up external tents today.  No confirmed cases as of this afternoon at our place.  

Good.  Hopefully you will have an easier and safer experience with this as a provider on the front lines.  Stay safe.

 

 

[Joe Frickin' Friday]

1 hour ago, lawnchairboy said:

Spoke with an anesthetist friend in IN today.   He has 10 in ICU with 8 ventilated, all older age ranges.   

 

A group is studying whether certain anti-hypertensive meds might play a role in the more severe outcomes seen in seniors, a great many of whom are using these meds.  

 

 

[chrisolson]

17 minutes ago, Joe Frickin' Friday said:

 

A group is studying whether certain anti-hypertensive meds might play a role in the more severe outcomes seen in seniors, a great many of whom are using these meds.  

 

 

 

Yuch ... what a dilemma ... the meds that are supposed to help keep folks alive may provide a pathway for the virus to eventually kill you.  But that certainly would help explain the heightened senior mortality rate.

[MikeRC]

36 minutes ago, chrisolson said:

 

Yuch ... what a dilemma ... the meds that are supposed to help keep folks alive may provide a pathway for the virus to eventually kill you.  But that certainly would help explain the heightened senior mortality rate.

 

From the quoted source: 

 

In the meantime he cautions, "Patients treated with ACEIs and ARBs for cardiovascular diseases should not stop taking their medicine, but should avoid crowds, mass events, ocean cruises, prolonged air travel, and all persons with respiratory illnesses during the current COVID-19 outbreak in order to reduce their risks of infection."  

 

Here's an in depth analysis of what it and isn't known about ACE inhibitors and ARBs from the European Heart Journal: SARS-CoV2: should inhibitors of the renin–angiotensin system be withdrawn in patients with COVID-19?  

 

There are actually theoretical and practical arguments that would support starting ACE inhibitors to decrease the severity and incidence of serious COVID-19 disease.  Early in the epidemic the Chinese tried ACE inhibitors and outcomes weren't improved or made worse.

 

Mike C

[chrisolson]

 

18 minutes ago, MikeRC said:

in the meantime he cautions, "Patients treated with ACEIs and ARBs for cardiovascular diseases should not stop taking their medicine, but should avoid crowds, mass events, ocean cruises, prolonged air travel, and all persons with respiratory illnesses during the current COVID-19 outbreak in order to reduce their risks of infection."  

 

Yeah, stopping meds on ones' own is never a good thing ... if you're able to avoid  COVIE-19 until a treatment or vaccine is available by practicing common sense in today's environment,  stopping meds may prove just as deadly.

 

23 minutes ago, MikeRC said:

There are actually theoretical and practical arguments that would support starting ACE inhibitors to decrease the severity and incidence of serious COVID-19 disease.  Early in the epidemic the Chinese tried ACE inhibitors and outcomes weren't improved or made worse.

 

In a developing situations, information can be conflicting

 

 

[John Ranalletta]

8 hours ago, chrisolson said:

 

 

Yeah, stopping meds on ones' own is never a good thing ... if you're able to avoid  COVIE-19 until a treatment or vaccine is available by practicing common sense in today's environment,  stopping meds may prove just as deadly.

 

 

In a developing situations, information can be conflicting

 

 

 

 

The value add for moi?  When we grocery shop, we'll wear our masks.  Shopped at Aldi's yesterday (most foods were in good supply) but social distancing was an issue as people tended to be near each other.  Both of us are on inhibitors.

[Marty Hill]

Daughter and I just walked a mile or so.  Felt wonderful to be out of the house for a bit.  So far all of our food is being delivered by the local Publix.

[Joe Frickin' Friday]

9 minutes ago, Marty Hill said:

Daughter and I just walked a mile or so.  Felt wonderful to be out of the house for a bit.  So far all of our food is being delivered by the local Publix.

 

 

These are good things, Marty.  in shut-down states, residents are still allowed to travel to grocery stores, because not everyone has access to delivery services like that.  shopping for groceries increases exposure and risk of transmission, but in some cases it's just necessary.  If you can get groceries delivered, that's a good way to cut down your risk.

 

And going for walks is also a good thing.  The terms of Michigan's shelter-in-place order allow people to go outside for exercise, and I assume the same is true in other shut-down states.  Getting out of the house is good for your mind and body, provided you maintain some distance from the other folks you meet out there.  

[John Ranalletta]

40 minutes ago, Joe Frickin' Friday said:

 

 

These are good things, Marty.  in shut-down states, residents are still allowed to travel to grocery stores, because not everyone has access to delivery services like that.  shopping for groceries increases exposure and risk of transmission, but in some cases it's just necessary.  If you can get groceries delivered, that's a good way to cut down your risk.

 

And going for walks is also a good thing.  The terms of Michigan's shelter-in-place order allow people to go outside for exercise, and I assume the same is true in other shut-down states.  Getting out of the house is good for your mind and body, provided you maintain some distance from the other folks you meet out there.  

 

We're walking 3.5-5 miles every day.  Interesting, being in an apartment that requires a lot less time/effort to maintain and taking brisk walks daily has impacted our eating and sleeping patterns.  

[Joe Frickin' Friday]

Michigan's case count is blowing up, and so is the death toll.  As of today, 2295 cases and 43 deaths, including a Detroit police captain:

 

 

 

[Rougarou]

[chrisolson]

26 minutes ago, Joe Frickin' Friday said:

Michigan's case count is blowing up, and so is the death toll.  As of today, 2295 cases and 43 deaths, including a Detroit police captain:

 

But wasn't (isn't) that expected ?  It was always assumed there were more unreported, untested folks out there.    The problem would seem to be that there is no way to separate "discovery" of previous existing cases because of increased testing and an actual increase of the infection rate.

[BrianT]

On 3/24/2020 at 6:28 PM, Joe Frickin' Friday said:

 

A group is studying whether certain anti-hypertensive meds might play a role in the more severe outcomes seen in seniors, a great many of whom are using these meds.  

 

 

Good info.  As someone on an Ace Inhibitor, I appreciate the info.

[Joe Frickin' Friday]

14 hours ago, chrisolson said:

 

But wasn't (isn't) that expected ?  It was always assumed there were more unreported, untested folks out there.    The problem would seem to be that there is no way to separate "discovery" of previous existing cases because of increased testing and an actual increase of the infection rate.

 

I just read that Italy is finally starting to see a consistent drop in new cases and deaths - two weeks after they implemented their lockdown.  So yeah, it's probably going to be a while before we see things moving in a good direction here in the states.

[Skywagon]

Texas numbers rising slightly.  Population 29.6 Million  Many counties on lock down now except for essential service workers and essential services e.g food, gas, medical.  My family has not left the property other than daily walks since March 19. We've stayed home not because we have any suspicions of being infected, but because it is what is being asked of us. Tomorrow we get to do a curbside grocery pickup......I hope.

 

13,235 Total Tests

1,758 Public Labs

11,477 Private Labs

974 Cases Reported

12 deaths

[beemerboy]

[Bill_Walker]

On 3/21/2020 at 3:15 AM, Rougarou said:

And from your sites FAQ (Estimated numbers):

That's for their population numbers, which is all they used to do before the virus hit.  Drill down, and you'll find the cited sources for NC are ncdhhs and the News-Observer.

[Bill_Walker]

On 3/21/2020 at 9:54 AM, Joe Frickin' Friday said:

The one caveat is that if you crash, you may end up spending time in an emergency room that's packed with contagious people...

And if you do it someplace that's really impacted and need ICU, there may not be a bed available for you.

[Bill_Walker]

It's been a number of days now, but I think I saw a couple of posts from folks in this thread saying something to the effect of "I'll start taking precautions when cases are detected near me."  This is faulty thinking.  When a case is detected, that person has had time to get infected, incubate the virus (5-14 days), develop symptoms, decide the symptoms are bad enough to seek treatment, and get bad enough to qualify for whatever testing restrictions apply locally (as of a few days ago, here in San Diego only healthcare personnel and hospitalized patients were being tested, due to a shortage of testing capacity).  During ALL of that time, that person is contagious.  Further, some people develop only mild symptoms and do not seek medical care and are never tested, but they're still contagious.  So, don't assume you'll know coronavirus is going to reach you.

 

Also, it's not just an metro area thing.  

"A southwest Georgia hospital -- that’s reporting more than a quarter of the state’s coronavirus deaths -- said Thursday it filled three intensive care units with “critically ill Covid-19 patients.”  

 

The Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital in Albany, Ga., added a fourth ICU unit to treat patients not infected with the novel virus. It is the worst-hit hospital in the state and within the Phoebe Putney Healthcare System but two other medical centers nearby -- Phoebe Sumter Medical Center in Americus and Phoebe Worth Medical Center in Sylvester – have been helping treat patients in the surrounding counties. 

 

The healthcare system said 31 patients who tested positive for COVID-19 remained hospitalized at Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital. Ninety-five others who are showing symptoms remained hospitalized at the hospital awaiting their test results."

The article also says the hospital went through six months worth of supplies in a week.  This, in a county of only 95,000, with only one incorporated city.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/us/georgia-hospital-fills-3-icu-units-critically-ill-coronavirus-patients

[Rougarou]

47 minutes ago, Bill_Walker said:

That's for their population numbers, which is all they used to do before the virus hit.  Drill down, and you'll find the cited sources for NC are ncdhhs and the News-Observer.

 

 

 

On 3/20 I posted directly from NCDHHS of 137, you posted that your site had 187.  I also posted CDC's count for NC of 137 for the same day, 3/20.  Then, on 3/21, I posted again from NCDHHS a count of 184, still under your sites estimates of 187 a full 24 hours later.  So, with that, it just shows to me that worldofmeters is not accurate, therefore, it's only SWAGging its numbers.

 

And today, at this moment 1929 20200327, worldofmeters states NC has 836 cases while NCDHHS has 763 and CDC has 764,......ya, I'll trust NCDHHS and CDC over swagofmeters.

[ltljohn]

I haven't left my property all week, even so it is creeping closer, barbarians at the gate. I am in Haycock ,  Bucks County PA

[John Ranalletta]

On 2/27/2020 at 11:40 AM, John Ranalletta said:

Spoke with a friend who lives in DC this morning.  He's definitely not a tin foil hat guy, but he said he took the Metro to a basketball game last night and for the first time wondered, "Is this smart?  Taking a train and sitting with thousands of people?"  Heard from our apartment manager that another resident is stuck in China, unable to get a flight out.  He's not ill but just can't get out.

 

Last week, we flew from PHX to IND and noticed just a few people wearing masks.  I had two in my bag in case we sat next to anyone coughing and wheezing or one of us caught cold/flu on our trip.

 

Is COVID-19 causing you to rethink any plans or take any precautions?

 

Some good news:

 

https://www.ibj.com/articles/abbott-launching-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere

 

Abbott Laboratories is unveiling a coronavirus test that can tell if someone is infected in as little as five minutes, and is so small and portable it can be used in almost any health-care setting.

The Chicago-based medical-device maker plans to supply 50,000 tests a day starting April 1, said John Frels, vice president of research and development at Abbott Diagnostics. The molecular test looks for fragments of the coronavirus genome, which can be detected in as little as five minutes when it’s present at high levels. A thorough search to definitively rule out an infection can take up to 13 minutes, he said.

The U.S. has struggled to supply enough tests to detect the coronavirus, even as the outbreak threatens to overwhelm hospitals in New York, California, Washington and other regions. After initially restricting testing to high-risk people, and problems with a test designed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. regulators have rushed out diagnostics made by the world’s leading commercial-testing companies.

[TEWKS]

Dr. David Price talks about the disease in more detail than I’ve heard in the past. 
 

It’s a wonky phone interview but some good and comforting info.

[Skywagon]

Rougarou

 

This is what worldofmeters says about Texas

Texas 1950 Cases 26 deaths 37 recoveries

 

Here is the number by Texas Gov and CDC

1731 cases 23 deaths 23,666 test administered

 

Population ~30million

[Joe Frickin' Friday]

An excellent collection of interactive plots showing the progress of the pandemic in various locales:

http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

 

You can fiddle with the controls under each plot to change what you see - highlight certain countries/states, changes the scales, and so on.  

[MikeRC]

1 hour ago, John Ranalletta said:

 

Some good news:

 

https://www.ibj.com/articles/abbott-launching-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere

 

Abbott Laboratories is unveiling a coronavirus test that can tell if someone is infected in as little as five minutes, and is so small and portable it can be used in almost any health-care setting.

The Chicago-based medical-device maker plans to supply 50,000 tests a day starting April 1, said John Frels, vice president of research and development at Abbott Diagnostics. The molecular test looks for fragments of the coronavirus genome, which can be detected in as little as five minutes when it’s present at high levels. A thorough search to definitively rule out an infection can take up to 13 minutes, he said.

The U.S. has struggled to supply enough tests to detect the coronavirus, even as the outbreak threatens to overwhelm hospitals in New York, California, Washington and other regions. After initially restricting testing to high-risk people, and problems with a test designed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. regulators have rushed out diagnostics made by the world’s leading commercial-testing companies.

 

John, the pressure on the FDA for emergency release of drug use guidelines (ex chloroquine), testing protocols, testing and medical support equipment has been enormous:  FDA Emergency Use Authorization for COVID-19 

 

All 19 tests authorized for emergency use look for some trace of the viral nucleic acid or protein "footprint".  The "gold standard" one unfortunately takes quite a few hours to "run" on the machine, but it correctly identifies over 90% of patients.  One of those tests under the Emergency Use Authorization is known (and admitted by the manufacturer) to be only 60% sensitive.  That is, it misses about 30% of patients the gold standard test catches.  I can't find anywhere that here has been independent confirmation of the Abbott test for accuracy, reproducibility and quality control.   

 

Poor data in results in poor decisions.    In that way,  the FDA (and all of us) have put a great amount of trust in these companies to release products that passed strict internal review.  

 

Mike C

[Selden]

This site has exceptionally clear graphics: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

[AnotherLee]

Gov Cuomo on current state of virus in NY. He remains data driven. Hope doesn't enter in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2qb5PwgAIA

 

 

[chrisolson]

2 hours ago, MikeRC said:

Poor data in results in poor decisions.    In that way,  the FDA (and all of us) have put a great amount of trust in these companies to release products that passed strict internal review.  

 

Quite true ... but I believe many folks would agree that some action, even if only partially effective, is better than no action at all.... I don't mean vaccines or treatments  where there is real danger if not clinically tested .... but in this case of testing in which it appears to be accepted that a positive result is accurate, even a reduced  positive outcome still  finds some of those asymptomatic folks who should isolate  vs zero testing  which finds none .

 

 

 

[Selden]

Re https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections, I just realized that this site provides state-by-state projections for hospital resource usage. The projections vary dramatically, based mainly on the date of the estimated peak; the sooner the peak, the greater the shortages. 

 

New York, estimated peak April 6:

Bed shortage = 35,301, ICU bed shortage, 6,949, ventilators needed 4,141 

 

Wisconsin, estimated peak May 22:

Bed shortage = 0, ICU bed shortage 30, ventilators needed, 109

 

This an excellent opportunity to test the accuracy of projections. I have captured screen shots for each state, and for the country as a whole so that I can look back at some future date.

[Selden]

On 3/28/2020 at 11:52 AM, Skywagon said:

Rougarou

 

This is what worldofmeters says about Texas

Texas 1950 Cases 26 deaths 37 recoveries

 

Here is the number by Texas Gov and CDC

1731 cases 23 deaths 23,666 test administered

 

Population ~30million

 

The CDC site is always so out of date as to be nearly useless. 

JHU dashboard for Texas, last updated 3/29/2020, last updated 4:56:20 PM : 2623 confirmed, 37 deaths.

 

Here is a projection for Texas from https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

[Rougarou]

Protect yourself

[lawnchairboy]

On 3/24/2020 at 10:42 PM, MikeRC said:

 

From the quoted source: 

 

In the meantime he cautions, "Patients treated with ACEIs and ARBs for cardiovascular diseases should not stop taking their medicine, but should avoid crowds, mass events, ocean cruises, prolonged air travel, and all persons with respiratory illnesses during the current COVID-19 outbreak in order to reduce their risks of infection."  

 

Here's an in depth analysis of what it and isn't known about ACE inhibitors and ARBs from the European Heart Journal: SARS-CoV2: should inhibitors of the renin–angiotensin system be withdrawn in patients with COVID-19?  

 

There are actually theoretical and practical arguments that would support starting ACE inhibitors to decrease the severity and incidence of serious COVID-19 disease.  Early in the epidemic the Chinese tried ACE inhibitors and outcomes weren't improved or made worse.

 

Mike C

Nothing I read in that study would compel me to pull someone off ACE's or ARB's who was hypertensive.  

[Selden]

In the same vein: 

 

 

[John Ranalletta]

On 2/27/2020 at 11:40 AM, John Ranalletta said:

Spoke with a friend who lives in DC this morning.  He's definitely not a tin foil hat guy, but he said he took the Metro to a basketball game last night and for the first time wondered, "Is this smart?  Taking a train and sitting with thousands of people?"  Heard from our apartment manager that another resident is stuck in China, unable to get a flight out.  He's not ill but just can't get out.

 

Last week, we flew from PHX to IND and noticed just a few people wearing masks.  I had two in my bag in case we sat next to anyone coughing and wheezing or one of us caught cold/flu on our trip.

 

Is COVID-19 causing you to rethink any plans or take any precautions?

 

Sean Cavanaugh posted this on FB.  How to protect your family.

 

https://bit.ly/3dEQ9ed

[Selden]

The IHME projection models https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections seem to be picking up quite a bit of attention, from the White House, Georgia government, and probably elsewhere. I like them because they are showing estimates of where things are heading, rather than where we are right now. The projections are updated constantly, and Texas, for example, looks slightly better today than it did on March 28, with the peak pushed out from April 18 to May 5, and fewer beds needed. Projections vary state by state; New York has worsened slightly.

 

IHME outlines their methodology here: http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

[MikeB60]

48 minutes ago, Selden said:

The IHME projection models https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections seem to be picking up quite a bit of attention, from the White House, Georgia government, and probably elsewhere. I like them because they are showing estimates of where things are heading, rather than where we are right now. The projections are updated constantly, and Texas, for example, looks slightly better today than it did on March 28, with the peak pushed out from April 18 to May 5, and fewer beds needed. Projections vary state by state; New York has worsened slightly.

 

IHME outlines their methodology here: http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

Selden,

Thanks, this was a good find and looks like solid data.  

 

Mike