What Happens Next

[yabadabapal]

I always come to BMWST to get a better idea of whats going on.

Im a bit unsure and uncertain.

Whats the chance that Israel will attack Iran.

Then the USA gets involved somehow.

Then Russia gets involved somehow.

Gas prices also aim towards 5 bucks a gallon.

Any opinions on this.

This is not a political post but a question on world events unfolding.

If it crosses the line, just delete the thread.

[Alfred02]

Israel attacking Iran's nuclear facilities...., quite likely

Iran defending/retaliating ....50/50%

USA getting actively involved...unlikely

USSR getting actively involved...even less likely.

 

[Paul Mihalka]

According to news reports USA authorities (Clinton) warned Israel not to attack Iran. I hope that if they do a foolish thing the USA does not get involved.

[TEWKS]

After the horror's of the Holocaust and my neighbor was threatening my existence I'd have my finger on the trigger also. So much more involved than I could ever understand but left unchecked it could happen again. War is a terrible thing.

 

 

Pat

[Whip]

IMHO....The nation of Israel was created to prevent another Holocaust, not to entice one. If the world would act as one Iran would have no choice but to disarm. If bombs are dropped and people are killed the blame should be place at the feet of those that did not support Israel.

 

 

 

 

 

[Huzband]

+1

[SteveHebert]

It is only a matter of time. If Iran does not disarm and if they keep pushing, Israel will attack, supported 100% and justifiably so by the US. We as a world collective cannot allow Iran to continue down this path.

[Selden]

IMHO....The nation of Israel was created to prevent another Holocaust, not to entice one. If the world would act as one Iran would have no choice but to disarm. If bombs are dropped and people are killed the blame should be place at the feet of those that did not support Israel.

Actually, with the current economic sanctions, the world is acting in a more unified manner than one might expect, and the current Iranian regime seems to be hurting. Cyber warfare (stuxnet, and things we probably don't know about) is also hurting. While I wouldn't rule out an Israeli military strike, mostly I think they're playing head games with the Iranians.

 

James Fallows reported on a war game simulation that The Atlantic ran in 2004. The outcomes were quite sobering, and I don't see that anything has significantly changed 8 years later: Will Iran Be Next?

 

The most comprehensive coverage of what's going on in Iran is to be found at Tehran Bureau.

[Mike]

A lot of people make a good living trying to predict the course of global geopolitical events and few of them seem to really know. Of course, when you issue a constant stream of predictions, you're likely to get lucky once in a while.

 

Iran's development of a nuclear capability is worrisome, but I think it's unlikely to prove to be the direct trigger for U.S. military action. What I do think is a greater possibility is that, either through a concerted decision or a screwup at some level in their military chain of command, some action will be taken by Iran against a warship or a commercial vessel, resulting in a reprisal . . . and, quite possibly, further escalation. Were that to occur--and particularly if it turned out to be more than a brief skirmish--I am quite certain that the U.S., the aggrieved nation and/or its allies would aggressively target Iran's nuclear facilities.

 

I would not be at all surprised to see us engaged in a war with Iran in the next five years, though I would hope that history proves me wrong.

[Paul Mihalka]

Just for kicks, let me be a devil's advocate. Kind of try to see the other side of the coin. Have nuclear weapons: India, Pakistan, China, N. Korea, probably Israel. That besides the Cold War countries of USA, Russia, UK. I can understand that Iranians consider they are a sovereign nation and what right have other countries to tell them what they can have and what not. Yes, Iran's is a terrorist government. Terrorist acts have been committed from Israel too.

[Rougarou]

Just for kicks, let me be a devil's advocate. Kind of try to see the other side of the coin. Have nuclear weapons: India, Pakistan, China, N. Korea, probably Israel. That besides the Cold War countries of USA, Russia, UK. I can understand that Iranians consider they are a sovereign nation and what right have other countries to tell them what they can have and what not. Yes, Iran's is a terrorist government. Terrorist acts have been committed from Israel too.

 

Who has what

[Mike]

Paul, I think you're absolutely right. I don't want to see them with nukes, but I am absolutely certain that they see the question as one of sovereignty.

[moshe_levy]

I always come to BMWST to get a better idea of whats going on.

Im a bit unsure and uncertain.

Whats the chance that Israel will attack Iran.

Then the USA gets involved somehow.

Then Russia gets involved somehow.

Gas prices also aim towards 5 bucks a gallon.

Any opinions on this.

This is not a political post but a question on world events unfolding.

If it crosses the line, just delete the thread.

 

Let's tiptoe around the politics, as it were.

 

History always sheds light on the probability of future events. Operation Opera from 1981 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera for those unfamiliar - was by all measures except PR a success. (Israel doesn't care about PR because she has few true friends anyway). Like El Al's security, we takes no chances. Israel has also been, always, traditionally mum about its capabilities and its intentions. That its PR now is to announce its plans on the front page is completely out of character and should raise eyebrows as to what is really happening behind the scenes.

 

Second, gas prices. Well, naturally that is a subject fraught with politics, so I'll be very gentle here. Let's attempt to see why, despite your pain as a consumer, several very powerful forces profit greatly from Middle Eastern instability.

 

Gouger #1: Obviously, oil producers, specifically Saudi Arabia which is the largest in OPEC. SA has recently announced that they intend to set the price per barrel at $100, a whopping increase over just a few years ago? Why? Supply and demand? Hardly. "SA recently announced an £85 billion ($126.29bn) public spending program aimed at assuaging growing discontent. As a result, according to JPMorgan, by 2013 Saudi Arabia will need oil prices at $US100 to break even. In 2007, the break-even figure was less than $US40." http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/saudi-oil-minister-targets-stabilising-oil-price-near-us100/story-e6frg91x-1226246166232 Guess who pays for to make sure the "Arab Spring" doesn't blow over into Riyadh? Supply and demand, indeed!

 

Gouger #2: Speculators. Oil is a commodity whose price is set by the market based on supply and demand - and I have a bridge to sell you, too. The supplier is outright telling you, the price is set to pay for increased social spending, not as a function of actual supply. And speculators love the uncertainty of such markets, which lead to rapid swings and chances to make boatloads of profit. Stuff like this

 

 

Article: http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/28/markets/oil_egypt/index.htm Makes people rich. And there's plenty to worry about over there, to keep things unstable and the wild swings going.

 

Gouger #3: Defense contractors. Hey, I service these guys, and they use American equipment sometimes, so it's great for me. Sabre rattling by the Middle Eastern tyrant-of-the-week leads his neighbors to buy expensive defense systems, like this $1.7B order Raytheon just got http://www.raytheon.com/businesses/rids/businesses/patriot/patriot_amdp/saudi/index.html to upgrade the Patriot Missile system for the Saudis, which they ordered right after Iran started kicking up dust. This is just one small order in a very large batch. Not all benefit American companies, but some do. Big money at play - people buy bigger sticks when they fear their neighbors.

 

Put together, these three interests are very large, very powerful and very wealthy. Your measly gas bill and pain at the pump matter not at all, and you will be gouged all the way down the chain from the original supplier to the local gas station as they take advantage of market instability to raise prices on you. Instability is fanstastic for profit!

 

So, what do you do? Sit around and bicker about what policies we should adopt and watch the world go by? Or take charge of your life, and reduce your consumption to the highest degree you can. When your car is ready for replacement, buy one that's efficient. When your furnace breaks, same thing. And so on. Change your consumption - it's the only thing under your direct control, and therefore the only say you have in the matter. And if you want to help your country insulate itself from this circle of nonsense where everybody but you wins, convince your neighbors, your friends, and your families to do the same. Starve the beast, because right now, we're the ones feeding it!

 

-MKL

 

 

[ragtoplvr]

Any one that does not believe that Israel has enough nukes to turn the middle east into a sheet of glass is a fool.

 

Iran knows if they USE or allow one to fall into terrorists hands that is used, they will be severely punished, probably not a sheet of glass, that makes the oil hard to get, just a wasteland.

 

Nukes are a worthless weapon unless you are the only one who has one, that is the only time they have been used.

 

Let them have their worthless expensive toy.

 

Rod

 

[Rougarou]

Gouger #3: Defense contractors. Hey, I service these guys, and they use American equipment sometimes, so it's great for me. Sabre rattling by the Middle Eastern tyrant-of-the-week leads his neighbors to buy expensive defense systems, like this $1.7B order Raytheon just got http://www.raytheon.com/businesses/rids/businesses/patriot/patriot_amdp/saudi/index.html to upgrade the Patriot Missile system for the Saudis, which they ordered right after Iran started kicking up dust. This is just one small order in a very large batch. Not all benefit American companies, but some do. Big money at play - people buy bigger sticks when they fear their neighbors.

 

 

 

That contract was announced in June 2011 and had probably been in the works for 2, 3+ years prior. Just a guess because I see proposals rolling though quite a bit for contract finalization 2, 3, 4 years out at my company. "Recently" makes it sound like they "just" did it, when probably, it had been RFI'd or RFP'd years prior.

[Ken H.]

Israel attacking Iran's nuclear facilities...., quite likely

Iran defending/retaliating ....50/50%

USA getting actively involved...unlikely

USSR getting actively involved...even less likely.

As long as we’re all dragging our crystal balls out:

 

Israel attacking Iran's nuclear facilities..., quite likely

Iran defending/retaliating...,80/20

USA getting actively involved..., very likely (suppose it depends on how one defines “involved” though)

USSR getting actively involved..., unlikely.

 

[moshe_levy]

That contract was announced in June 2011 and had probably been in the works for 2, 3+ years prior. Just a guess because I see proposals rolling though quite a bit for contract finalization 2, 3, 4 years out at my company. "Recently" makes it sound like they "just" did it, when probably, it had been RFI'd or RFP'd years prior.

 

This is true. I meant "recently" in military contract lingo which means a few years, at least. But the overall point is unchanged - uncertainty and instability serve the profit motives of some very powerful forces.

 

-MKL

[Dennis Andress]

+2

 

I find it noteworthy that Iran talks big but doesn't act on those words. Considering there were riots and calls for Ahmadinejad to step down less than two years ago, I think Iran using retoric to keep its populace focused on external problems. However, Ahmadinejad is on the way out. He lost the support of Khamenei some time ago. There are national elections on March 2 which are set to shift power away from Ahmadinejad, and to the religous rulers. That will change everything.

[philbytx]

My crystal ball is, just a stupid crystal ball !

 

quote :

"Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn!"

unquote

 

We can't do bugger all about any of it anyway.

So, just live your life, do your best and ignore the media "the sky is falling" crap!

 

Moshe, nice try on the "everyone doing their bit"...some will, most won't!

 

C'est la vie, brothers and sisters... !

 

[Danny caddyshack Noonan]

This is true. I meant "recently" in military contract lingo which means a few years, at least. But the overall point is unchanged - uncertainty and instability serve the profit motives of some very powerful forces.

 

Very simple matter to make a contract mod on a larger RFP. Delivery dates tell the story of how long in advance it was done.

[moshe_levy]

Moshe, nice try on the "everyone doing their bit"...some will, most won't!

 

This is sadly true. Were I in a marketing position at an automaker or oil furnace manufacturer or heavy equipment manufacturer that made efficient products, I would certainly make the political aspect of conservation a central point - nobody else does right now, and I think that keeps these products niche instead of more mainstream. They show ads with flowers and leaves and streams as though the environmental aspect of conservation is the be-all-end-all.

 

The issues of national security, energy independence, and sustainability ring very deep with some people (like me) - this is a whole different crowd (usually on the other side of the aisle from the greenies) that could be a nice new customer segment to target.

 

All a company needs to advertise in this way is the cajones to say it like it is. Clean streams and skies are wonderful. But just icing on the cake. What's priceless is doing what we can as a country to reduce our dependence on oil, which is responsible for so much wasted in terms of national wealth and yes, national blood. We have everything to gain as a people from stepping away from this addiction to the greatest extent that we can. Those without the foresight to recognize this will continue the cycles of sticker shock come this summer when suddenly, and without any relation to actual market forces, prices continue to spike skyward further.

 

-MKL

[Dave McReynolds]

What really seems to hurt us, going all the way back to Vietnam, is not the war itself but the aftermath of trying to occupy and pacify a foreign country. We really seem to have a talent for killing people and breaking things, but not so much for winning hearts and minds. I think that if we stuck to what we're good at, we would come out of a future war with Iran or any other country better off than if we try too hard to make friends with them afterwards.

[Whip]

Terrorist acts have been committed from Israel too.

 

If Israel disarmed today tomorrow there would be no Israel.

 

If the enemies of Israel disarmed today there would never be another shot fired.

 

 

 

 

[moshe_levy]

Don't waste time, Larry. Take it as given that Israel and Israel alone has no sovereign right to defend herself or her people, including hostile neighbors that state outright that they either don't recognize her, won't recognize her, or of course want to "wipe her off the map." It's a given, sadly, where the rapist and the raped are in moral equivalence. But now we're digressing.....

 

-MKL

[yabadabapal]

Hey you guys. I read every post carefully. What an education I just got. Thanks for that! My instinct is that something has been set in motion much like a chess game. The moves are irreversible and at best temporarily delayed.

[Selden]

Who has what

And here's how they got there:

.

 

It gets off to a slow start, then evolves into a hypnotic, demented video pinball game. Timeline ends in 1998, so you can imagine there have been a few more in the past 14 years. I don't know if I'm depressed, or encouraged by the fact that we haven't wiped ourselves out yet.

[yabadabapal]

I forgot to mention one thing. This is going to sound ridiculous but I gotta say it. When and if this momentum of events in the Mid East proceed to a significant series of actions, I think North Korea is going to attempt to find a reason or excuse to flex as a method for the new young leader to cement his image and identity as a leader.

[1MPH]

C'est la vie, brothers and sisters... !

 

 

Hey watch the French!

[Huzband]

 

 

Hey watch the French!

 

Why, are they about to surrender?

[Selden]

...So, what do you do? Sit around and bicker about what policies we should adopt and watch the world go by? Or take charge of your life, and reduce your consumption to the highest degree you can. When your car is ready for replacement, buy one that's efficient....

Here's your chance: Taking a Spin in an Electric BMW

[1MPH]

 

 

Hey watch the French!

 

Why, are they about to surrender?

 

Probably ......I meant the language.