VinnyR11 Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Another topic discussed the lack of attention BMW and others are giving the "sports touring" segment. The theme was that most of the action is on the cruiser segment. The economy has now, as expected, hit the cruiser market as well. Here's an excerpt from an AP article regarding Harley... You can read the entire article HERE "By DAN STRUMPF – 58 minutes ago NEW YORK (AP) — Harley-Davidson Inc. said Friday it will cut 1,100 jobs over two years, close some facilities and consolidate others as it grapples with a slowdown in motorcycle sales. The Milwaukee-based company also reported its fourth-quarter profit fell nearly 60 percent, and said it is slashing motorcycle shipments in 2009 to cope with reduced demand......" Link to comment
smiller Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 To most buyers motorcycles are considered a nonessential expense and it's not surprising to see a big hit in the market for high-end leisure motorsports vehicles, regardless of configuration or manufacturer. If 2009 turns out to be as many expect then there may be some awesome deals out there for those with the cash (including a red K1300GT, I hope...) Link to comment
rob1100r Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 More and more people have less 'left over' to play with after paying for the true necessities...Signs of the times.. Link to comment
DonB Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 True, And the leftover in the coming years is going to get very much less. Link to comment
baggerchris Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Motorcycle Online is also reporting that HD has asked for Fed. Bailout money. Crap! (And I can say that cause I owns one) I am sick and tired of everyone trying to get on board the gravy train. Link to comment
AZKomet Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 To most buyers motorcycles are considered a nonessential expense and it's not surprising to see a big hit in the market for high-end leisure motorsports vehicles, regardless of configuration or manufacturer. If 2009 turns out to be as many expect then there may be some awesome deals out there for those with the cash (including a red K1300GT, I hope...) Well, that may be true....but from my experiences BMW isn't gonna make a deal on a new machine like that. Been there done that....so I am hoping that someone will off load a near new one to me for a great price. Is that what your saying as well? No red, sissy pink or mustard yellow please.....black or graphite for me. I have been looking for an 09 black Concours, but so far, no luck in AZ. Link to comment
smiller Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 so I am hoping that someone will off load a near new one to me for a great price. Is that what your saying as well? Either or, as long as it's in my garage. And I'm not sure that BMW won't deal on even their front line vehicles at some point... the automakers sure are... Link to comment
AZKomet Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 so I am hoping that someone will off load a near new one to me for a great price. Is that what your saying as well? Either or, as long as it's in my garage. And I'm not sure that BMW won't deal on their front line vehicles at some point... the automakers sure are... That is true...maybe they can do the "2 for 1" offer like the auto makers are?? Link to comment
smiller Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 I'm down... when that happens we'll go in there together... Link to comment
SAAB93driver Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 I just saw an ad the other day from HD, buy a new Sportster before March 31 and trade it in within 12 months and get full sticker price (even if you paid less) credit toward a big twin. Link to comment
AZKomet Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 I'm down... when that happens we'll go in there together... deal! Link to comment
smiller Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 I just saw an ad the other day from HD, buy a new Sportster before March 31 and trade it in within 12 months and get full sticker price (even if you paid less) credit toward a big twin. Hmmm... a year on a Sportster... not sure how enticing that would be... Link to comment
Firefight911 Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 To most buyers motorcycles are considered a nonessential expense and it's not surprising to see a big hit in the market for high-end leisure motorsports vehicles, regardless of configuration or manufacturer. If 2009 turns out to be as many expect then there may be some awesome deals out there for those with the cash (including a red K1300GT, I hope...) Don't bet on it. As quoted from BMW Motarrad in Munich: In tough market conditions, BMW Motorrad has been able to follow up on its record sales of the previous year. In 2008, 101,685 (previous year: 102,467 units) BMW motorcycles were delivered to customers – a slight drop of 0.8%. Clear growth signals were shown especially in the second half of the year. In December, sales were even 9.3% above the level of the previous year at 7,457 units (previous year: 6,821 units). Link to comment
smiller Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 We will see, we will see... Link to comment
Selden Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 HD has been in a sales bubble for years, driven by the myth that you could sell a HD for more than you paid for it. Prolonging the bubble, up until last year the Motor Company would finance a new HD for something like 120% of purchase price (necessary to pay for all the chrome doodads and Screamin' Eagle add-ons). From the housing mess, we know what happens when large numbers of customers start defaulting on loans for more than the value of the vehicle. I don't have a great deal of sympathy for a manufacturer of overpriced, underperforming, unreliable motorcycles. The people who work for HD are another matter; being laid off sucks, no matter what. Link to comment
krussell Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 The MSRP aspect of the Sportster offer is interesting. Find a dealer with a sweet Sportster offer, buy it, ride it a while, then get the difference between MSRP and what you paid as a discount on your big twin. Heck, it might make sense for someone buy a big twin to buy the sporter at a discount and then trade it in the next day. Link to comment
smiller Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 HD has been in a sales bubble for years, driven by the myth that you could sell a HD for more than you paid for it. Well I'll have to agree that BMW is certainly safe from that. Link to comment
krussell Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 One other data point is how hard it's getting to walk through my BMW dealers facility. Last December I bought my RT. It was one of two available at that time. The showroom was pretty empty. I've noticed over the last year more and more bikes. It's to the point now where you have to be careful to walk through the place, there are bikes everywhere. And RTs? What color would you like, there are multiples of each on the floor. Lots of other models too. This may be an isolated case, but I'm suspecting this scenario is common across any new vehicle showroom. I wonder as well who owns the inventory on the showroom floor. Does the manufacturer book the sale when the bike goes to the dealer, or do they finance it until it's sold to the consumer and book it then? In the former case the sales numbers may be artificially delayed while the manufactures fill the pipeline 'til it bursts. Link to comment
baggerchris Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 I have felt for years that HD has new products in the tube that they are just sitting on. Now is the time. Let's see that Vrod engine in a decent chassis. Let's see the Vrod in a fatboy or heritage chassis; Sport touring Chassis. Let's see the 103 incher straight from the factory and not an expensive dealer add on. Let's see more Sportsters with the more powerful Buell influenced engine. I am of the opinion that the Vrod is the most under used platform around with a lot of potential but little factory support. Link to comment
SAAB93driver Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 I am of the opinion that the Vrod is the most under used platform around with a lot of potential but little factory support. Me too. All that money development spent to make an American version of the VMax and the engine is not used anywhere else. Link to comment
Firefight911 Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 I am of the opinion that the Vrod is the most under used platform around with a lot of potential but little factory support. Me too. All that money development spent to make an American version of the VMax and the engine is not used anywhere else. Image sells. Function is secondary. Link to comment
Dennis Andress Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 What do you mean I can't refinance???? Link to comment
Selden Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 It's largely because the hardcore HD market wants an air cooled, pushrod engine. That said, I've never understood why BMW didn't switch to hydraulic valve lifters -- it's not exactly a new technology. Never having to adjust valve clearances was one of the joys of my old Pacific Coast. I can see the need for solid valve trains for the K and FS engines because of higher rev limits, but 7000-8000 rpms really isn't a challenge for hydraulic lifters. Link to comment
SAAB93driver Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 I am of the opinion that the Vrod is the most under used platform around with a lot of potential but little factory support. Me too. All that money development spent to make an American version of the VMax and the engine is not used anywhere else. Image sells. Function is secondary. I think then it may have backfired for HD as I don;t think the VRod is one of their major sellers. Link to comment
markgoodrich Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 More specific information: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aqxG5fyu9vng&refer=news Link to comment
baggerchris Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Vrod not a top seller? Yes, quite so. It's looks are so out of the mainsteam HD tradition, that along with the coolant engine, pretty much did it in for the American Rider. I think that if they had come out with a fatboy type with that engine, it would have sold a lot better. I know that I for one would have bought one. But then again, I am not tied to the old air cooled engine mindset, and would really appreciate a HD with a little panache and power. The Vrods ARE a pretty good seller in Europe however. Link to comment
StuGotz Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Anyone remember the last HD bailout? Short memories we have... MB> Link to comment
SAAB93driver Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Vrod not a top seller? Yes, quite so. It's looks are so out of the mainsteam HD tradition, that along with the coolant engine, pretty much did it in for the American Rider. I think that if they had come out with a fatboy type with that engine, it would have sold a lot better. I know that I for one would have bought one. But then again, I am not tied to the old air cooled engine mindset, and would really appreciate a HD with a little panache and power. The Vrods ARE a pretty good seller in Europe however. For me if they would have put that engine in a sport touring or even a "sporty touring" bike I'd have considered it, but from the sounds of it the sport touring segment it not worth going after with zest for any manufacturer at the moment. I guess they can always do something more with it later if there is a demand. Link to comment
SAAB93driver Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Anyone remember the last HD bailout? Short memories we have... MB> Yes, the one that brought the 700cc bike segment to the USA back in the 1980's. Large tariffs on all imported bikes 750cc+. I was in 9th grade. Link to comment
rob1100r Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 One other data point is how hard it's getting to walk through my BMW dealers facility. Last December I bought my RT. It was one of two available at that time. The showroom was pretty empty. I've noticed over the last year more and more bikes. It's to the point now where you have to be careful to walk through the place, there are bikes everywhere. And RTs? What color would you like, there are multiples of each on the floor. Lots of other models too. This may be an isolated case, but I'm suspecting this scenario is common across any new vehicle showroom. **I wish my local dealerships were like that!! OH WAIT, The 2 dealers by me closed! Link to comment
Dennis Andress Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Anyone remember the last HD bailout? Short memories we have... MB> Yes, the one that brought the 700cc bike segment to the USA back in the 1980's. Large tariffs on all imported bikes 750cc+. I was in 9th grade. It dashed my hopes of buying a new R100/7 Link to comment
Paul Mihalka Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Anyone remember the last HD bailout? Short memories we have... MB> Yes, the one that brought the 700cc bike segment to the USA back in the 1980's. Large tariffs on all imported bikes 750cc+. I was in 9th grade. It dashed my hopes of buying a new R100/7 There was a loophole in the tariff regulations about small voulume importers no paying a higher customs duty. BMW, Moto Guzzi, Ducati, were not affected. Link to comment
nldaniel Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Paul, that's just cruel, telling the man that his yearning was could haven been a reality if he had hust paid attention.. Link to comment
VinnyR11 Posted January 23, 2009 Author Share Posted January 23, 2009 One other data point is how hard it's getting to walk through my BMW dealers facility. Last December I bought my RT. It was one of two available at that time. The showroom was pretty empty. I've noticed over the last year more and more bikes. It's to the point now where you have to be careful to walk through the place, there are bikes everywhere. And RTs? What color would you like, there are multiples of each on the floor. Lots of other models too. This may be an isolated case, but I'm suspecting this scenario is common across any new vehicle showroom. **I wish my local dealerships were like that!! OH WAIT, The 2 dealers by me closed! +1. Not a single BMW store on Long Island. Heck, it's only 3 million people. Who needs a dealer? Link to comment
upflying Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Besides the bad economy are there other reasons for the drop in demand for HD? HD sold a bike to every "Baby Boomer" old geezer who had money and the lust for the bike. Now that this sales demographic is becoming gray, older and "less common", is this target market now saturated with Harley's they already have? What's the incentive for a gray beard to "move up" when they already own a top shelf motorcycle brand. Has HD ignored the young male market that seems directed towards the sport motorcycle? Would a V-Rod engine in a GSXR type motorcycle perk up sales and demand? Speaking of demographics, it's no secret the United States is very diverse with many cultures and languages. Are these "new" American's interested in motorcycle ownership..even if they had the income? Do these cultures have a favorable impression of motorcycles or are they perceived as dangerous low income transportation for the destitute? Link to comment
gettysburg Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 When we took the BMW factory tour in Berlin, our tour guide basically said a bike doesn't leave the factory unless it's been purchased; either as dealer inventory or a customer order. Link to comment
Dennis Andress Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Paul jogged my memory about the tariff. Maybe it wasn't the tariff that killed my hopes of a new BMW but something happened about that time which caused the price to up. I've always respected Harley for following through and improving their business after they got the tariff they asked for. Link to comment
upflying Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Paul jogged my memory about the tariff. Maybe it wasn't the tariff that killed my hopes of a new BMW but something happened about that time which caused the price to up. Inflation was pretty high during that period. http://www.macalester.edu/courses/econ119/robertson/USinfUE.htm Link to comment
Kitsap Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 I have felt for years that HD has new products in the tube that they are just sitting on. Yep, remember their scooters. Link to comment
upflying Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 That would be the Harley Davidson Topper. Link to comment
SAAB93driver Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Besides the bad economy are there other reasons for the drop in demand for HD? HD sold a bike to every "Baby Boomer" old geezer who had money and the lust for the bike. Now that this sales demographic is becoming gray, older and "less common", is this target market now saturated with Harley's they already have? What's the incentive for a gray beard to "move up" when they already own a top shelf motorcycle brand. Has HD ignored the young male market that seems directed towards the sport motorcycle? Would a V-Rod engine in a GSXR type motorcycle perk up sales and demand? Speaking of demographics, it's no secret the United States is very diverse with many cultures and languages. Are these "new" American's interested in motorcycle ownership..even if they had the income? Do these cultures have a favorable impression of motorcycles or are they perceived as dangerous low income transportation for the destitute? Have you been to a BMW rally? I think it is a very similar demographic. I work for a German company and have several German colleages who ride, not any of them ride a BMW, these are guys my age, late 30's early '40s and have the money if they wanted one but a BMW to them (and these are Germans) is an old man's bike. It's hard to generalize but in my experience other cultures like motorcycles for fun, not just utility, I've spent a fair amount of time in Brasil and Central America - people with the disposable income and the inclination to ride are just as passionate as here. There are many more riders who use bikes for utility, however, than in the US. Traffic and economy being a big factor. Link to comment
Firefight911 Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 And this is the HD we all grew to love sooooo much! Link to comment
upflying Posted January 23, 2009 Share Posted January 23, 2009 Besides the bad economy are there other reasons for the drop in demand for HD? HD sold a bike to every "Baby Boomer" old geezer who had money and the lust for the bike. Now that this sales demographic is becoming gray, older and "less common", is this target market now saturated with Harley's they already have? What's the incentive for a gray beard to "move up" when they already own a top shelf motorcycle brand. Has HD ignored the young male market that seems directed towards the sport motorcycle? Would a V-Rod engine in a GSXR type motorcycle perk up sales and demand? Speaking of demographics, it's no secret the United States is very diverse with many cultures and languages. Are these "new" American's interested in motorcycle ownership..even if they had the income? Do these cultures have a favorable impression of motorcycles or are they perceived as dangerous low income transportation for the destitute? Have you been to a BMW rally? I think it is a very similar demographic. I work for a German company and have several German colleages who ride, not any of them ride a BMW, these are guys my age, late 30's early '40s and have the money if they wanted one but a BMW to them (and these are Germans) is an old man's bike. It's hard to generalize but in my experience other cultures like motorcycles for fun, not just utility, I've spent a fair amount of time in Brasil and Central America - people with the disposable income and the inclination to ride are just as passionate as here. There are many more riders who use bikes for utility, however, than in the US. Traffic and economy being a big factor. So you are making my point. Are typical, serious, motorcycle riders old men who already own and bought what the manufactures have to offer? HD and BMW aren't selling as much volume since the old timers already own it. New markets for motorcycles are younger generations who aren't buying old man's bikes like HD and BMW. Meanwhile we old timers are slowly thinning our herd only to be replaced by young extended immigrant families who have a cultural bias against the motorcycle in the USA. I understand South America, Asia and Africa relies on two wheel transportation as a basic necessity. Such reliance on minimal two-wheel appliances does not mix well in American traffic. As you, I am only speaking in generalities. Link to comment
smiller Posted January 24, 2009 Share Posted January 24, 2009 Well if the K1200S is an old man's bike then I must be really old because it scared the !@#$ out of me... Link to comment
SAAB93driver Posted January 24, 2009 Share Posted January 24, 2009 Besides the bad economy are there other reasons for the drop in demand for HD? HD sold a bike to every "Baby Boomer" old geezer who had money and the lust for the bike. Now that this sales demographic is becoming gray, older and "less common", is this target market now saturated with Harley's they already have? What's the incentive for a gray beard to "move up" when they already own a top shelf motorcycle brand. Has HD ignored the young male market that seems directed towards the sport motorcycle? Would a V-Rod engine in a GSXR type motorcycle perk up sales and demand? Speaking of demographics, it's no secret the United States is very diverse with many cultures and languages. Are these "new" American's interested in motorcycle ownership..even if they had the income? Do these cultures have a favorable impression of motorcycles or are they perceived as dangerous low income transportation for the destitute? Have you been to a BMW rally? I think it is a very similar demographic. I work for a German company and have several German colleages who ride, not any of them ride a BMW, these are guys my age, late 30's early '40s and have the money if they wanted one but a BMW to them (and these are Germans) is an old man's bike. It's hard to generalize but in my experience other cultures like motorcycles for fun, not just utility, I've spent a fair amount of time in Brasil and Central America - people with the disposable income and the inclination to ride are just as passionate as here. There are many more riders who use bikes for utility, however, than in the US. Traffic and economy being a big factor. So you are making my point. Are typical, serious, motorcycle riders old men who already own and bought what the manufactures have to offer? HD and BMW aren't selling as much volume since the old timers already own it. New markets for motorcycles are younger generations who aren't buying old man's bikes like HD and BMW. Meanwhile we old timers are slowly thinning our herd only to be replaced by young extended immigrant families who have a cultural bias against the motorcycle in the USA. I understand South America, Asia and Africa relies on two wheel transportation as a basic necessity. Such reliance on minimal two-wheel appliances does not mix well in American traffic. As you, I am only speaking in generalities. I think that is not the whole picture. There is the part of the demand that might be drying up is the demand to have a new bike (or car or TV) every year regardless - to have the latest and greatest. There are lots of people in the BMW motorcycle community that buy a new bike every year or two - see them at one rally after another, always a new bike. I don't know what it is but either they don't have the income, interest or the manufacturer doesn't make what they want anymore. I fall into the last one, I'd love to buy a new BMW, I have the money but they quit making anything I liked about 4 years ago. As far as culture goes, In Brasil at least where I spent the most time on a any given Sunday you can see the well heeled out and about riding their bikes, BMW, HD, Ducati, Gold Wings, etc or gathering at the local watering hole. I never witnessed any cultural biased about motorcycles in these countries except that in a large city it can be very dangerous so people ride out to the country, not really unlike here. I didn't spend enough time in China to really make a conclusion - I was just glad to leave. Link to comment
SAAB93driver Posted January 24, 2009 Share Posted January 24, 2009 Well if the K1200S is an old man's bike then I must be really old because it scared the !@#$ out of me... Yes, even the k1200S was discussed, verdict was it's Japanese BMW and still an old man's bike. Who else but an old man would have cardanic drive and heated grips. It's not my perception, it was their's - let me qualify, we are all engineers and technical people, not accountants or lawyers so it is but a narrow data point.. But the BMW cars have a completely different image in Germany than the bikes, as does the sterotype of the BMW driver. Car good, typical driver is kind of a jerk. Link to comment
harleyjohn45 Posted January 24, 2009 Share Posted January 24, 2009 Anyone remember the last HD bailout? Short memories we have... MB> Yes, the one that brought the 700cc bike segment to the USA back in the 1980's. Large tariffs on all imported bikes 750cc+. I was in 9th grade. It dashed my hopes of buying a new R100/7 There was a loophole in the tariff regulations about small voulume importers no paying a higher customs duty. BMW, Moto Guzzi, Ducati, were not affected. BMW, Ducati, and Moto Guzzi were not dumping motorcycles in the USA for less that it cost to manufacture them. Link to comment
hopz Posted January 24, 2009 Share Posted January 24, 2009 A few years ago I wrote to Harley-Davidson top management and made a few suggestions. A good bit if time has passed since then so I feel free to discuss it now. I wrote as a shareholder, and I still am, and yes, I am still in a profitable position with that stock. I received a nice, signed in ink, letter from the CEO saying my thoughts had been passed to the VP Product Planning (or some such- I will respect his privacy) and he would provide a detailed reply. He did. I suggested that a "modern" Sport Touring H-D would be a great addition to the line-up. They have a good engine in the V-Rod and what they needed was a good frame and good brakes to go with it. I excoriated them for the poor brakes. I cited examples of far better systems on all the major competitors... BMW as prime exemplar of good. I pointed out that the motorcycling baby boomers would pass through the H-D line up and they needed a place to go after they tired of the cruisers and old-fashioned touring models. I can report that my letter, harsh as it was, was well received and without revealing specifics the fellow who replied suggested I hang on a little bit. Since then we have seen ABS, Brembo, and updates to the touring model frames to cure the head shakes and other ills. I think they know what they are doing and they are (were) headed in a good direction. If one reads the details of the press release, the main drains on profitability- (and note- they are still profitable) is the H-D Finance unit- (lack of borrowing resource). That and lessening demand from a scared buying public. In my opinion, once the market regains its confidence they will come back. The baby boom wave is just now hitting. The ready for retirement boomers are scared and they are remaining in the workforce. When they get confident- there will be lots of H-D buyers again, and over time those will migrate to the other bikes, such as BMW and etc. I am continuing to hold my H-D stock..... Link to comment
VinnyR11 Posted January 24, 2009 Author Share Posted January 24, 2009 ............ I think that is not the whole picture. There is the part of the demand that might be drying up is the demand to have a new bike (or car or TV) every year regardless - to have the latest and greatest. There are lots of people in the BMW motorcycle community that buy a new bike every year or two - see them at one rally after another, always a new bike. I don't know what it is but either they don't have the income, interest or the manufacturer doesn't make what they want anymore. I fall into the last one, I'd love to buy a new BMW, I have the money but they quit making anything I liked about 4 years ago..... I think the "buy a new bike every couple of years crowd" does not have a long term significant impact on demand. Those riders will typically trade in their used bike (or resell). That drives down the price of good used bikes, while increasing the number of bikes on the road without increasing overall demand. Eventually something has to give. When used bike prices get to a certain low level they become more and more attractive as an alternative to a new bike. The manufacturers then either have to lower the new bike prices or forgo sales. I think the same thing happened with low cost leasing schemes in the auto world. They leased a bunch of cars for a while, but because cars have a far longer lifespan than 3 years, they were building many more cars than the long term demand could support. Link to comment
Missouri Bob Posted January 24, 2009 Share Posted January 24, 2009 Although I am not old enough to remember the 1930s, this recession looks as if it will change the world as much as that one did. The Great Depression killed/wounded some high-end car and bike manufacturers (Auburn, Cord, Duesenberg, Bugatti, Brough-Superior, Crocker, I think). This one will, too. I hope my favorites survive, but they may not. The only constant is change. Bob Link to comment
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.