Major Powertrain Failure Survey update...

[steve.foote]

It's been a while since I last updated the MPFS, but here is the latest:

 

Major Powertrain Failure Survey

 

I highlighted in RED the trends as I see them. You can draw your own conclusions, but I feel that the 2002 R1150RT clutch spline failure range is significant. It would be interesting for more owners of that small SN range to report their spline experience.

 

The other two ranges highlighted are showing a trend, but there is still not enough data to get excited about.

 

This is the correct thread to discuss the current findings. If you would like to report your own incident, do so in the original thread. Please, please, please read and follow the instructions there before you post your data.

[Stan Walker]

but I feel that the 2002 R1150RT clutch spline failure range is significant.

 

A couple of things to keep in mind when looking at the '02 RT's failure data.

 

They were fist sold in April of '01 thus represent almost two full model years. And they were fairly popular. I would guess there are at least twice as many '02 RT's as there are '03 or '04 RT's

 

They are the oldest of the R1150RT's and probably have the most mileage on them.

 

This is a very small sample of data points. While suggestive of a possible problem, it's far to small to produce reliable objective data.

 

5 of these entries are repeated failures on the same two bikes. Perhaps these should only be counted once. Example, if I blow 3 fuses because of a bad circuit that I don't fix the first two times, should I count it as 3 failures or just 1?

 

Stan

[Boffin]

5 of these entries are repeated failures on the same two bikes. Perhaps these should only be counted once. Example, if I blow 3 fuses because of a bad circuit that I don't fix the first two times, should I count it as 3 failures or just 1?

 

I feel these failures are the strongest evidence we have that the spline failures are not due to lack of lube. Moly lube tends to get adsorbed into the surfaces and so can look dry even when they are lubed. These bikes were repaired using good quality lube on their splines.

It looks to me, especially in light of measurements taken by some members, that the spline issue is caused by gearbox/engine misalignment - possibly over a fixed build period.

 

Excluding multiple failures would mask this evidence and could lead to false conclusions.

 

Andy

[Stan Walker]

Excluding multiple failures would mask this evidence and could lead to false conclusions.

 

I totally agree with your thinking. I wasn't suggesting that we discard that info but that we display it differently.

 

By showing them on three separate lines as three separate failures we are hiding the relationship. I would suggest to show them on a single line with a note that the bike has failed x number of times.

 

Stan

[Boffin]

By showing them on three separate lines as three separate failures we are hiding the relationship. I would suggest to show them on a single line with a note that the bike has failed x number of times.

 

That would work for me as well, so long as we also record the mileages at which each failure occured.

 

Andy

[steve.foote]

Stan, I felt exactly the same way, until this last update.

 

I counted the bikes which had a repeat failure because, in those cases, the original failure was repaired. If there were not an underlying reason for the failure, such as a possibly misaligned transmission/engine, it shouldn't have failed in the same way twice, let alone three times. Remove the repeat failures, and that still leaves us ten bikes within a range of 1500 effected.

 

I also understand your arguement regarding the popularity of the 02 1150RT. But, the failure range is in a realivly small SN range. As I understand it, there were almost 24,000 of these bikes built (from SN 70000 to 93933) by the end of 2003, yet almost all of the reported failures come in a very narrow band of roughly 1500 bikes (SN 86202 through 87874), with only one more reported since. That is significant enough to raise my eyebrow.

 

Yes, the datapoints are still somewhat vague, but a trend is definately emerging. Keep in mind that we have an uncomplete sampling at best. Of the 24k bikes in that group, no more than 14000 (our current membership) could be represented in this survey (and obviously, not everyone here has that year/model, nor has reported). My SWAG is that if we are looking at a 10% sampling, we are doing well.

[Theophilus]

Steve,

 

A couple of things here are of particular interest to me as an owner of a 2000 RT:

 

1. None of the bikes from model year 1999 suffered spline failures, but several of the failures that did occur happened before reaching 30k miles.

 

2. None of the bikes from model year 2000 suffered failures before 60k miles, and only one went before 70k. That seems at least somewhat significant, given the relatively poorer track record of the 1999 bikes. What known changes (if any) were made for model year 2000?

 

I have been reading with despair the "chocolate gear oil" thread, and seeing this data makes me feel a little better about my model year 2000 RT. There is probably thin statistical significance here, but it makes me feel better anyway.

 

Having had bad luck with dealer service, I have ordered the BMW shop manual for the bike today and will probably start doing a lot of my own work. This will also help me feel better about the bike, because I was not getting a warm fuzzy from my dealer's continued lack of attention to detail.

[steve.foote]

Tommy,

 

While we are starting to see somewhat of a pattern on the '02 RT's, you have to keep in mind that these numbers are still quite incomplete, and definately don't sound any alarm bells. As we have debated, seemingly endlessly, there are going to be a certain percentages of failures for anything manufactured.

[Laura]

I also understand your arguement regarding the popularity of the 02 1150RT. But, the failure range is in a realivly small SN range. As I understand it, there were almost 24,000 of these bikes built (from SN 70000 to 93933) by the end of 2003, yet almost all of the reported failures come in a very narrow band of roughly 1500 bikes (SN 86202 through 87874), with only one more reported since. That is significant enough to raise my eyebrow.

 

I got one of the first 1150's sold in the US; purchased April 2001....My serial number is low 85XXX so the numbers lower than mine may have been sold overseas?

 

I wonder; the narrow band of 1500 bikes, what time period did that encompass? Were they manufactured in one week, one month and when. It would be interesting to see the mfg date.

 

This survey does show a trend, very interesting.