Probability of Mechanical Failure

[MichiganBob]

Good Morning,

 

I've been on this board for many years and always wonder when I read a post about something that went wrong on a Beemer how widespread the problem might be. We can be swayed easily by very small sample sizes that do not generalize to the poplation. That's what the news is all about. Small numbers, anecdotes, exceptions are blown out of proportion. So I read a problem that a rider experiences with their bike and it goes through my filters  a certain way depending on how my brain is wired and maybe I give it more weight than it warrants or I don't. Some questions help me in the analysis.

 

1.  Is it a true random sample from the entire population, and if so, what is the margin of error? So we start with all 2016 RT's for example, assuming there were no significant changes made to them during the production year and we calculate the random sample we would need in order to generalize from the sample to the population. Regardless, there will be some chance or error, the larger the sample, the lower the error rate.

 

2.  Does the malfunction appear to have a higher probability of occuring within a series of serial numbers in the production year?

 

3. Is the malfunction due to rider abuse?  Lack of or poor maintenance? Environmental conditions e.g., heat, cold, rain, elevation, terrain? How much exposure has the bike had to there elements? Modifications and add on's to the bike?

 

4.  How many miles on the machine? How old is the machine? How many owners?

 

5.  Is it a design flaw? Manufacturing flaw?

 

Over the years, I've read countless reports about spline, Hall sensor, switches, alternators, starters,  and other failures. I wonder what are the chances these would happen to me if I had that model and year? Should I take precautions? Change something? Increase or change maintenance protocols? Carry a spare?

 

Just a Sunday morning musing.

 

 

 

 

[Skywagon]

I don’t know how many BMW riders are on this board relative to the amount of BMW’s being ridden. I generally look at this board daily and have for about 15 years. 
If I still owned an oil head I would be a bit apprehensive about FD, u-joints, HES, and the whizzy brakes. I wouldn’t obsess over them since I do maintenance at least as often as recommended if not more.. but clearly there is a pattern. 
 

I didn’t follow camheads because I never owned one

When the wet heads got pass the recall the things I remember showing up here was weaping antifreeze in a few. Mine was the 8th wet head in the US and has been a great bike sans it seems to be harder on batteries. A few, very few that I recall have had alternator failure which is a big deal. I don’t worry at all about it’s reliability but as stated I over do it on maintenance just like my other mechanical things. You should see my fishing reels😁

 

[Hosstage]

I ride a bike from a different manufacturer, and if the internet is true, it will self destruct in the next five minutes. I tried to keep up with all the potential problems, then just started ignoring it for the most part. It keeps running fine, no major issues, I'll fix it when it breaks. I can spend $2000 dollars fixing everything that isn't broke yet, or just pay $1500 when it breaks. So much easier than obsessing over potential disaster.

Doesn't mean I don't do maintenance, and an occasional deeper dive in knowing there is an issue coming, but not every little piece that broke on a half dozen others 

[Scott9999]

5 hours ago, MichiganBob said:

Good Morning,

 

I've been on this board for many years and always wonder when I read a post about something that went wrong on a Beemer how widespread the problem might be. We can be swayed easily by very small sample sizes that do not generalize to the poplation. That's what the news is all about. Small numbers, anecdotes, exceptions are blown out of proportion. So I read a problem that a rider experiences with their bike and it goes through my filters  a certain way depending on how my brain is wired and maybe I give it more weight than it warrants or I don't. Some questions help me in the analysis.

 

1.  Is it a true random sample from the entire population, and if so, what is the margin of error? So we start with all 2016 RT's for example, assuming there were no significant changes made to them during the production year and we calculate the random sample we would need in order to generalize from the sample to the population. Regardless, there will be some chance or error, the larger the sample, the lower the error rate.

 

2.  Does the malfunction appear to have a higher probability of occuring within a series of serial numbers in the production year?

 

3. Is the malfunction due to rider abuse?  Lack of or poor maintenance? Environmental conditions e.g., heat, cold, rain, elevation, terrain? How much exposure has the bike had to there elements? Modifications and add on's to the bike?

 

4.  How many miles on the machine? How old is the machine? How many owners?

 

5.  Is it a design flaw? Manufacturing flaw?

 

Over the years, I've read countless reports about spline, Hall sensor, switches, alternators, starters,  and other failures. I wonder what are the chances these would happen to me if I had that model and year? Should I take precautions? Change something? Increase or change maintenance protocols? Carry a spare?

 

Just a Sunday morning musing.

 

 

 

 

Hmm, I've seen this problem before.  Retired, and bored on a Sunday morning? 🤣🤣🤣

Well, since you can't ride your Beemer due to winter, I guess you rate the excuse. 😏

 

Before I bought my 2018  last fall, my last BMW having been an 2005 R1200RT (which had no problems whatsoever over 25K miles), I did do quite a bit of research.  A couple of reasons that I targeted the 2017-2018 model were (1) the mid-model transmission upgrade over the 2014-2016 series), (2) age and miles on the bike (i.e. late models usually have fewer miles, and age dependent maintenance is lower), and (3) it was the end of a 5 year model run, so I expected most of the issues with Wetheads had been worked out by that time.   It was also still under warranty, something I did not know until after I'd made an offer to the dealer on the bike I bought, and they provided the full maintenance and factory records for the bike, during negotiations. 

 

Issues like the failed alternators were a concern, but as occurrences were limited, and there were some reasonable indications that root cause for this might be environmental and/or rider abuse (i.e. engine overheating), I dismissed that as an acceptable risk.  Also of concern was the NHTSA service bulletin regarding worn cam lobes and rocker arms.   That could also involve replacement of the cam shaft, and of course, major engine work.  That had a little more meat to the bones, in that there was evidence that BMW significantly changed the replacement part(s).  However, I discounted this as an early-wethead issue, that should have been resolved by release of the 2018 model (i.e. the newer parts should have been installed on this engine).   Yes, there are a myriad of things that could impact repair costs and/or a sharp reduction of value in the investment a newer BMW RT represents.  I did due diligence, will do the appropriate maintenance myself, and don't intend to worry more about this bike, than I do other vehicles I've owned.  BMW's are generally a good investment, from the engineering perspective, better than many other vehicles.  I wouldn't have purchased, for example, a (particularly older) Harley or Triumph, because I prefer riding to working on my bikes, and many of those seem to be expensive garage queens.

 

There are certain "known issues" that should be addressed, while your working on other maintenance.  In my R1100 model, for example, I examined and ended up rewiring the Hall Effects Sensor (HES), based upon multiple failures, or inspection results presented on this forum.  Upon inspection, the insulation on my bike was also degraded (cracked and powder-dust like), a failure just waiting to happen.  I don't know of any such obvious issues on the Wetheads.  I'll take a shot at valve and cam check and/or adjustments during the 18K mile service if I can secure the tools, and based upon other reports, that'll probably won't be necessary again, for perhaps 60K miles.

 

I think some of the "concerns" expressed here about BMW motorcycles are a result of (a) very mechanically minded and/or talented owners taking a normal interest in their bikes, and (b) the small sample size represented by reports on this and other BMW forums.  For example, what percentage of Ford owners register and regularly log into a Ford user forum?  Much less than 1%, probably less than 1/10th of 1%.  How many BMW riders frequent BMWST.COM, BMWLT.COM, R1200RT.com, BMWMOA, the adventure rider forum, and so forth?   My own guess, probably as high as 10%.   Another analogy:  If a group of 5'11" white males, between the age of 30 and 45, smoking 3 packs of cigarettes' a day, overweight or obese, living a sedentary lifestyle, all watch a medical video about a 5'11" white male, obese, smoker, couch potato, who just had a heart attack, and he starts relating all his early symptoms, nine out of ten of the men in that group will probably start to clutch their chests in imagined or real chest pains.

 

That's where most of us are.  We're involved, knowledgeable, aware, and so much more than any average owners, we keep on checking our Beemers for early chest pains, possible, imagined, or real.  😁

[Paul De]

Spoken like someone who’s taken a few stats classes. 

One thing to keep in mind it is human nature to piss and moan about something that went wrong and make little mention  when all is going well and as expected.   The internet amplifies these complaints.  So by our own nature the sampling is skewed negative and not normally distributed around a mean experience, even if the sample was taken randomly off the internet.  Then applying statistical tools without accounting for the negative skew of the sample is bound to be riddled with accepting that a part is going to fail, or a bad model vintage when almost all will not experience a problem(type 2 error in stat geek terminology).  Yes the folks reporting a problem are very real, but facts can twist the truth around.

The other thing that the human brain is prone to is to assign causation to coincidence. An extreme example might be, the sun came up this morning and my HES failed, therefore the sun caused my HES to fail.  This might be the larger of the two things our Homo Saipan brains make us prone to accept a faulty conclusion. Especially while surfing the internet looking to understand the real risk of a failure or bad decision on what to buy.

 

The good news is this site is populated by rational folks (mostly anyway) and that keeps assigning risk from info found here pretty close to reality.  

[MichiganBob]

You nailed it Paul De, I taught college level statistics for 40 years.

 

You make some excellent points.

 

Another angle that has gotten a lot of attention lately is the "negative bias." This is being fueled by advances in brain imaging and a greater ability to understand neuropathways. The premise is that our reptilian brain (which has not fully evolved in numerous ways -- especially the  male gender acccording to my wife) is highly focused on survival. It's a "hope for the best but be prepared for the worst scenario." Careful about the guy in the next cave who wants to come over for a friendly visit. Venturing out to hunt by oneself in unfamiliar territory with scary critters all around is dangerous. Better to go out in numbers (which raises another whole discussion of why we might feel uncomfortable being by ourselves and need company be it people, tv, cell phones, and the like). Anyhow, the notion is that our neuropathways are grooved so that negative thinking becomes the default and the norm. Imaging is showing that negative thinking develops deeper more robust pathways than neutral or positive thinking. So staying out of the rabbit hole is work and takes effort and practice. Ever know someone who is addicted to misery. Check out their neuropathways if you dare. 

 

It would make sense then, how a few negative experiences/mechainical failures expressed publically can be miscontrued as something more widespread.

[9Mary7]

7 hours ago, Skywagon said:

I didn’t follow camheads because I never owned one

AND.... there's really nothing to complain about

[Scott9999]

9 hours ago, 9Mary7 said:

AND.... there's really nothing to complain about

Spoken like a truly biased (and perhaps, happy) Camhead owner.   (Just wait 'til he rides my Wethead next spring.  It'll just RUIN him for anything other than a Wethead or Shiftcam. 🤣🤣🤣)

 

(Hmmm, least I HOPE it will.  Otherwise, I just wasted a whole lotta money when I could have bought a Hexhead for a lot less. 🙄😬.  But, par for the course ....)  

[Joe Frickin' Friday]

20 hours ago, MichiganBob said:

1.  Is it a true random sample from the entire population, and if so, what is the margin of error? So we start with all 2016 RT's for example, assuming there were no significant changes made to them during the production year and we calculate the random sample we would need in order to generalize from the sample to the population. Regardless, there will be some chance or error, the larger the sample, the lower the error rate.

 

2.  Does the malfunction appear to have a higher probability of occurring within a series of serial numbers in the production year?

 

3. Is the malfunction due to rider abuse?  Lack of or poor maintenance? Environmental conditions e.g., heat, cold, rain, elevation, terrain? How much exposure has the bike had to there elements? Modifications and add on's to the bike?

 

4.  How many miles on the machine? How old is the machine? How many owners?

 

5.  Is it a design flaw? Manufacturing flaw?

 

Over the years, I've read countless reports about spline, Hall sensor, switches, alternators, starters,  and other failures. I wonder what are the chances these would happen to me if I had that model and year? Should I take precautions? Change something? Increase or change maintenance protocols? Carry a spare?

 

Just a Sunday morning musing.

 

it's difficult or impossible for an end user to ascertain this kind of information.  In a general sense though, it's foolhardy to expect a motorcycle to be as reliable/durable as a car.  For one thing, the sales volume just doesn't support the same level of R&D as cars.   According to this, BMW cranked out 53,092 R1100RTs from 1995-2001, an average of 7585 bikes per model year for the entire world.   For comparison, Honda was averaging around 300,000 Civics per year at the time, just within the US.  Another factor is that bike purchases are more likely to be driven by emotion than car purchases, so less-than-stellar reliability is less of a deterrent for bike sales than it would be for car sales.  Bottom line, a smart rider doesn't assume his bike will be as reliable as his car.  

 

When you start hearing about the same failures over and over again on this site, it's best to prepare for them one way or another.  If you're mechanically inclined, you pack affordable spare parts and tools on the bike.  If not, pack a credit card. I prefer the former to the extent possible.  While money is far less of an issue than it used to be, vacation time is as precious as it ever was, and if at all possible I'd rather get my bike running in an hour or two than have to wait a few days for a dealer to get parts.  

 

For some failures, having spare parts lined up is impractical.  This includes things like the R1150RT gearbox splines, or the 1100RT final drives.  You pays your money and you takes your chances.  For others, spares make sense.  Once the 1100 bikes started racking up miles, the HES failures became something of an epidemic.  I personally witnessed three HES failures on the road.  Thankfully, none of these was on my bike, but it was a close call.  Here's a strange sequence of events:

 

1. In 2005, @Lone_RT_rider was passing through Michigan when his HES failed.  He got his bike towed to my house, where we took the HES out of my bike and put it in his so he could get home.  He bought me a new HES sensor for my bike, and we rebuilt his old sensor for him to keep as a spare.
2. In 2007 on the way to spring Torrey, my old sensor in his bike failed.  We were able to use his old repaired sensor and get his bike back on the road ourselves.  

If Shawn hadn't packed that spare, it would have been an expensive tow to the nearest dealer (Denver?) and a long wait for a replacement sensor to arrive.  Would have wrecked a vacation.

 

I've been bitten by other failures.  Barely made it home from Torrey in 2004 with my '99 RT's final drive about to let go of the rear wheel.  My '09 RT briefly stranded me a couple of times with a flaky fuel pump controller.  I got it replaced under warranty, and on learning there were known problems with its design, I bought a spare - only to learn later that the design had been changed to eliminate those problems.  Fuel pump cracks on the hexhead have been common enough for two recall campaigns.  The latest problem is cracks on the plastic throttle cable pulleys.  This seems to be related to age as much as anything.  How common is it?  Ken Deline checked five of his bikes, and all five had cracks on both pulleys.  If you click that link, you'll see a lot of folks have been bitten, myself included.   Not a feasible roadside repair, so anybody with an aging hexhead bike should inspect those, and if there are cracks, get them replaced before they fail on the road.  

 

 

[Rougarou]

13 minutes ago, Joe Frickin' Friday said:

 

  In a general sense though, it's foolhardy to expect a motorcycle to be as reliable/durable as a car.    Bottom line, a smart rider doesn't assume his bike will be as reliable as his car.  

 

 

 

 

Nooo, I expect, a $27k mechanical 2-wheel product to be equally as reliable as a $27k 4-wheel product.  I must be one of the fools and not too smart riders because I expect it to be reliable and think it's kinda funny that people put more "maintenance" in a bike than a car.  (Does everyone cycle their brake fluid and change the diff fluid on their 4-wheel vehicles,.....looking at the brake fluid in my 1989 Silverado, I think it's original, but the truck still stops just fine.)

 

So far, I've never been left on the road stranded.

 

I've had issues, with the 2006 RT, issues that I likely could have lived with, but decided to repair and then replace.  Going at 145k on the RT, ridden every other week (bikes are alternated), I can say, without any doubt, that it's a very reliable mode of transportation, equal to any 4 wheel vehicle I own.

 

If it's mechanical or electrical or a combination, it's got a chance to fail.......why worry or have any concern simply because it only has two wheels.  

[MichiganBob]

Good Morning,

 

Beyond what BMW recommends, what do you do that they do not or do more often re: maintenance? Brake fluid I expect.

 

One thing I learned not to do was powerspray my bike. In fact I only hand wash it now. Back in the old days, we would stop in a carwash and clean the bikes while on the road. No wonder the switches on my R75/5 went belly up. Of course considering the design of those switches, I expect that sitting in the rain might have done it. Nevertheless, high pressure water spray is not a good idea.

[Rougarou]

I do waaay less than the BMW recommended maintenance,.....waaay less.

 

And washing, the 2019 GSA hasn't been washed since I bought it.  The 2006 RT, mebbe ten or 12 times since 2010......washing's very overrated

[Scott9999]

On 1/10/2022 at 5:07 AM, Rougarou said:

 

(Does everyone cycle their brake fluid and change the diff fluid on their 4-wheel vehicles,.....looking at the brake fluid in my 1989 Silverado, I think it's original, but the truck still stops just fine.)

I do.  Well, I flush the brake system when I R&R the brakes, and generally do about the same for my Beemers.   I just did my Ford Edge at 50K miles, after about 6 years of use.  Though only the rear were worn and required service, my front brake rotors had developed a shimmy which just bugged the heck out of me, so I did all four rotors & brakes, plus the brake fluid from master cylinder through the ABS pump, to the wheels.   I really thought nothing of it, other than I was surprised I hadn't done it (fluid flush) earlier.  Doing the entire job myself without other-than-OEM slotted and drilled rotors, I did the whole thing for less that it would have cost me to just have the rear brake job done by a mechanic.  I'm sure I could have left the brakes untouched for 15-20K miles, and could have just swapped the rear pads, and been good for maybe another 50K-75K miles.   However, "could have" is not as good as "will be", and I KNOW the brake job was done right.

 

So, yeah, some people do maintain their vehicles in the same way.  I do my car the same as the bike, because breaking down on the road in either, sucks about the same, and repairs due to non-maintenance costs ..... Lord only knows.