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Shortages or lack of planning?


John Ranalletta

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John Ranalletta

Started a project to hang our TV above the fireplace, mistakenly thinking the electrical supplies I need were just a quick stop away at Lowes.  Found out this morning that there are no 2-gang remodel boxes available at any Lowes, HD or local hardware store near me.  So, the project is delayed.

 

There's lots of talk about material shortages which leads me to wonder if we really have shortage or we have a shortage of planning.   Does it really make sense to have EVERYTHING we could possible want or need just a short drive away at Lowes?  What' s the macro cost?  Sure, it's up to manufacturers and stores to determine how much product to make and shelve as it should be.  Are today's shortages temporary or not?  Are the really shortages caused by demand or shortages caused by manufacturers rationing product to market to maintain higher margins?  After all, if I can reduce my costs and charge more until a competitor comes to market at lower price points , why not?  I've read lumber companies did that earlier in the year.

 

The solution to my dilemma is simple: Amazon.  By next Wednesday, I'll have everything I require for the project and the extra cost isn't blamed on shortages but lack of planning.  Happy to have all my major bath and kitchen remodeling complete.

 

Just thinking....

 

BTW, if you're contemplating hanging your TV and hiding the cables, this company, though expensive, has some elegant solutions.  I need to connect 2 HDMI, a 3-cable RCA set and cable, running the wires in the wall from floor outlet to behind-the-monitor outlet.  There are many solutions, but I chose to get a pair of these from https://store.ultraspec.us/.    

 

 

 

 

IMG_8022[1].JPG

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I keep a supply of blue boxes as i never know when im gonna run a new circuit. Ive got single double and triple if you still need one

 

our living room has 2” thick slate above the fireplace was a real beotch to hammer drill for the tv mount, no way to run electrical up there

 

the basement tv electrical, i just use one of those fuzzy plates for everything. Nobody’s gonna see it anyway. But, yours has a real clean look to it, im just l zy

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As a member of the transportation industry, I believe it has to do a lot with a nationwide driver shortage, but even if that was not an issue it may stem from pandemic’s effect on the purchasing behavior of the U.S. consumer radically changed everything. Consumer purchasing increased more than 35% above yearly normal in the second half of 2020 and has remained strong into 2021  - ripped from article in Heavy Duty Trucking. 

 

As an employee of a manufacuring company that supplies Lowe's, I can attest to the fact that consumer demand is stronger than the supply side.   Our company experienced  heavy demand on our products and never had a chance to catch up, due in large part to labor issues,  but also followed by the raw material supply getting tighter; think pricing.  A lot of our customers have had to suffer through back-orders because we were slow to meet the increased demand.  A driver shortage, company wide, has caused us to go with farming out deliveries to contractors who pull around our pre-loaded trailers for distribution.  We even have temp CDL drivers operating our trucks with "Help Wanted" signs out at the street, stating CDL drivers needed.  Everywhere I go in the greater metroplolitan area of Atlanta, I see "Now Hiring........" signs.  Not just for drivers, but for any help.   

 

It does hurt the consumer to go out and attempt to purchase an item that should be found in many retailers, only to find it not available.  That leads a person to start looking around online to see where else it can be bought.  I am guessing that most would people would find it easier to source an item, online, then get it shipped to them (or store,) but now factor in the delivery labor.  Rinse.  Repeat.

 

I sometimes need something that is used regularly, and when I go to buy it, I feel the need to buy up as many as I can for later; hoarding by definition, I guess.  I think that would be a better decision so that  it assures me availability.  Kind of reminds me of the TP frenzy when the pandemic kicked off.  HA

 

 

 

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Combine the above in wbw6cos's post with the idea that companies have been working very hard to minimize the cost of storing goods, and instead are relying on very short times from manufacture to end consumer... The result is even small fluctuations and disruptions to the chain have large impacts. 

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48 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

 

In stock

in stock

 

I went through Motosport and found several instock as well.

 

Hope this helps ya.

Appreciate the effort Richard but that’s more like a 50/50 tread.
I’m looking for these (or similar) & can’t seem to find anywhere. 
Will spoon on a full street tire if need be. 

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On 9/18/2021 at 1:31 PM, wbw6cos said:

As a member of the transportation industry, I believe it has to do a lot with a nationwide driver shortage, but even if that was not an issue it may stem from pandemic’s effect on the purchasing behavior of the U.S. consumer radically changed everything. Consumer purchasing increased more than 35% above yearly normal in the second half of 2020 and has remained strong into 2021  - ripped from article in Heavy Duty Trucking. 

 

As an employee of a manufacuring company that supplies Lowe's, I can attest to the fact that consumer demand is stronger than the supply side.   Our company experienced  heavy demand on our products and never had a chance to catch up, due in large part to labor issues,  but also followed by the raw material supply getting tighter; think pricing.  A lot of our customers have had to suffer through back-orders because we were slow to meet the increased demand.  A driver shortage, company wide, has caused us to go with farming out deliveries to contractors who pull around our pre-loaded trailers for distribution.  We even have temp CDL drivers operating our trucks with "Help Wanted" signs out at the street, stating CDL drivers needed.  Everywhere I go in the greater metroplolitan area of Atlanta, I see "Now Hiring........" signs.  Not just for drivers, but for any help.   

 

It does hurt the consumer to go out and attempt to purchase an item that should be found in many retailers, only to find it not available.  That leads a person to start looking around online to see where else it can be bought.  I am guessing that most would people would find it easier to source an item, online, then get it shipped to them (or store,) but now factor in the delivery labor.  Rinse.  Repeat.

 

I sometimes need something that is used regularly, and when I go to buy it, I feel the need to buy up as many as I can for later; hoarding by definition, I guess.  I think that would be a better decision so that  it assures me availability.  Kind of reminds me of the TP frenzy when the pandemic kicked off.  HA

 

 

 

Been in transportation & logistics since 1983 and busted a gut chuckling at the notion that "manufacturers are rationing product to boost margins". That's a good one. Cycle inventories have been falling for three decades. Every retailer was dependent on the mfgs and suppliers holding inventory upstream and no one held more than a few days to weeks inventory because "I can get it from the warehouse in a few days". Well, when you close factories on the other side of the world for a few months that's a big hole to fill. If those factories are in countries playing by The Hammer and The Dance then the factories opened and closed again a few times as C-19 transmission rates allowed. When you lay up a Panamax ship and send the crew back to their second and third world homes it's not a simple matter to call them all back and start the engines of a ship back up. And please don't stuff one sideways in the Suez for a couple of weeks. When half the world's Asian trade ISO containers were on the wrong side of the Pacific it takes time to get them back in place. When everyone working from home started ordering everything from salt & pepper to toilet paper to new cooktop stoves and refrigerators from e-tailers the trucking companies had to find the trucks and drivers to deliver the residential deliveries from the huge sea change in buying patterns. If you didn't order a few hundred to a few thousand tractors, trailers, liftgate box trucks last year you aren't getting them this year, hello 2022 deliveries on equipment we needed 6 months ago, much less the drivers to operate them when you get them. We've been talking about a driver shortage in trade journals for 10 years, well hello 9/23/21, there are shortages at Lowe's.

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It has been said that because of the smog, the sunsets are a lot nicer.  I imagine a few of those vessels are helping contribute to the lovely sunsets.  :ohboy:

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9 hours ago, wbw6cos said:

It has been said that because of the smog, the sunsets are a lot nicer.  I imagine a few of those vessels are helping contribute to the lovely sunsets.  :ohboy:

Funny you should mention that.

I work along the coast & yesterday afternoon the fog came rolling in indicating on on shore [air) flow. 
We live about 10 miles as the crow flys from the coast on the inland side of the Santa Monica’s (coastal mountain range). 
around sunset I noticed an unusually red sunset color cast that appeared to be from smoke but there weren’t any fires nearby (or so I thought). 

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On 9/21/2021 at 4:07 AM, Rougarou said:

 

In stock

in stock

 

I went through Motosport and found several instock as well.

 

Hope this helps ya.


 

Rat Basstiges (Motosport)!!!!


 

They sold me a tire they didn’t have in stock & also tacked on $1.75 in tire recycling fee.

This morning I received an email from them telling me that they don’t have the tire & don’t know when they well.

Meanwhile I had received an email yesterday from RevZilla informing me that they now had a Scorpion in stock. 

I just ordered the last one.

 

Bottom line.....

It pays to be somewhat of a Prepper these days.  

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Good thread. I think there are many really good points provided. I would like to speculate that another factor to consider is the Amazon effect from them transitioning from other carriers to their own supply chain. I see more Amazon trucks on the road now than any other carrier. It used to be UPS or FedEx were the dominant carrier of goods, not any more. So I wonder how many of the Amazon drivers left the other employers? Rhetorical no doubt, but a strong possibility.

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When needing any electrical supplies, I always head right to my local wholesale distributor (Platt or North Coast). In Indy you have Graybar, CED, All-Phase and others . They will retail it to you.Try 'em out, have the best stuff and tools also.

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21 hours ago, wbw6cos said:

It has been said that because of the smog, the sunsets are a lot nicer.  I imagine a few of those vessels are helping contribute to the lovely sunsets.  :ohboy:

 

I was at the port of Long Beach a couple of months ago and upon our departure and return, I thought it odd that so many cargo ships were anchored out. 

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11 hours ago, Sonor said:

Good thread. I think there are many really good points provided. I would like to speculate that another factor to consider is the Amazon effect from them transitioning from other carriers to their own supply chain. I see more Amazon trucks on the road now than any other carrier. It used to be UPS or FedEx were the dominant carrier of goods, not any more. So I wonder how many of the Amazon drivers left the other employers? Rhetorical no doubt, but a strong possibility.

There are different types of trucking companies running semi trucks over the road. Less Than Truckload carriers like YRC, FedEx Freight, Old Dominion, Estes, XPO move generally 150 lb to 10,000 lb shipments in labor intensive sorting hub and spoke operations that span the country. The shipment does not move point to point but rather in a series of leaps and jumps of 250 to 450 miles and trucks could have 5 to 25 separate shipments in the trailer for each segment. UPS Freight was a big LTL carrier but UPS sold off this poorly performing UPS Freight division to a Canadian company 6 months ago. They are called TForce now. UPS Brown paid over 3 billion for the LTL trucking company they just sold for 800 million. Depending on your POV of Big Brown that's a hardee har har or what a shame. Handling small boxes and parcels is much different than handing LTL 150 lb to 10,000 lb shipments and UPS never got a handle on that but they tried for 25 years or so. Truckload carriers like Landstar, JB Hunt, Knight, Schneider, Werner move 10,000 lb to 45,000 lb solid trailer loads generally point to point without changing trucks, trailers, or drivers at intermediate sorting hubs. Small Package or Parcel like UPS & FedEx sort and consolidate large numbers of small shipments into truckloads or aircraft loads. Overnight deliveries generally move by truck if less than 500 miles - even if they charge for "airfreight".

 

We do see more and more Amazon tractor trailer trucks out there but Amazon relies heavily on the TL carriers and large LTL carriers to move freight from suppliers to roughly 180 fulfillment centers across the country. From the FCs the little grey box trucks and vans make the final mile deliveries to houses and some businesses. The delivery trucks in your neighborhood can't handle heavy and bulky deliveries and Amazon still relies heavily on the LTL carriers to make "final mile" residential deliveries of heavy and bulky. This constrains capacity of the LTLs to move the aforementioned traditional LTL shipments. Final Mile demand is one of the factors in the supply chain capacity issues we keep hearing about. There aren't enough small trucks and LTL and TL drivers to handle the increase in e-commerce from suppliers to residential deliveries. Companies are poaching drivers from each other with pay raises and signing bonuses as well as recruiting new drivers within and from other industries.

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